Relations between Israel and Arab Gulf countries are at their lowest in decades. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to strike Doha on Sept. 9 may prove to be the most reckless in his years of volatile rule.
Six people, including a Qatari security officer, were killed in several Israeli strikes on a Tuesday afternoon, and several others injured. The killing of a Qatari national made the deadly attack even more egregious for a country with a small population where communal ties are tight.
In hitting a Gulf country, the Israeli prime minister crossed a geopolitical line his country had never crossed. Strategically, it has set the Arab world on a different footing. The fear now is that the Israeli government can act unhindered, striking wherever and whenever it sees fit.
The fallout from the Doha strike will be felt in four realms—Doha’s role as mediator, Israel’s relationship with Qatar, threat perceptions in the Gulf, and the wider Israel-Palestine dynamic.
Qatar’s ongoing role as a mediator between Israel and Hamas is currently paused. Qatar has publicly said it will continue serving as a mediator, while the U.S. and U.K. have urged it to continue in this role. But that in itself is not enough. Talks have all but been called off since Sept. 9, and needless to say, trust with Israel is at an all-time low.
The regional implications will be serious as well. With their swift condemnation, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states all framed Israel’s strike as an attack on the Gulf. This has consequences for Israel, especially as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have formal ties with Israel through the Abraham Accords. Five years after those accords, Israel is significantly isolated from the Gulf, even if ties have not been severed formally.
Previously, Israel had not been considered a direct threat to Gulf security. On the contrary, Israeli political and security officials have been trying for years to argue that they were aligned with the Gulf countries against extremism. However, the Israeli government’s own increasing extremist views have weakened that argument. And with the attack on Doha, Israel itself is now viewed as a threat by the Gulf.
The fact that Israel claimed the Qatar strike so candidly, and said it would be willing to repeat it, drove this point home for Gulf leaders. It is telling that Emirati presidential advisor Anwar Gargash said, “Israeli wars, militia adventurism, and the crisis of the region have redrawn the political map in the last two years,” adding: “Human suffering and repercussions of geopolitical earthquakes continue to be uncovered.” Gulf states now see Israel as an aggressor, and their strategic long-term planning will take that into account.
Nine days after the strike on Doha, the GCC’s defense council convened. The subsequent statement was clearly intended to emphasize this new threat perception. It repeated that “the attack on the State of Qatar is an attack on all GCC states” and spelled out that “in light of the Israeli aggression,” the council would “take the necessary executive measures to activate joint defense mechanisms and Gulf deterrence capabilities.”
Washington has taken note of the Gulf position. The U.S. is still considered a primary—but not sole—guarantor of security in the region. The level of trust in Washington peaked after the liberation of Kuwait in 1991, but it has now been declining for some years. A failure to act swiftly and effectively after Iranian-backed militia attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE in 2019 and 2022, respectively, accelerated this change. And yet, Qatari officials have been clear in saying that their defense ties with the U.S. are still strong. President Donald Trump said he felt “very badly” about the attack, which he claims he only found out about at the last minute. But more importantly, Washington remains the only actor who can ultimately stop Israel from its continued strikes on the region.
During his trip to Doha, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that a new defense pact is being finalized. Few details have emerged about it, but Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari explained that the Israeli attack “expedites the need for a renewed strategic defense agreement between us and the United States.”
Later that week, though, Saudi Arabia signed a defense agreement with Pakistan. This, too, highlights a shift in Gulf security considerations. Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman announced that the two countries stand side by side against “the aggressor,” without naming the aggressor. A Saudi official told Reuters that the deal is “a comprehensive defensive agreement that encompasses all military means,” which includes Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities. While Riyadh and Islamabad have had close relations for years, the elevation of their security ties to include mutual defense sends a clear signal.
The strike on Doha has also exacerbated the regional volatility that has worsened since Oct. 7, 2023. After an emergency summit in Doha six days after the Israeli attack, the 57 countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League said in a statement that “the silence of the international community in the face of repeated Israeli violations, have emboldened Israel to persist in its aggressions.” Meeting this threat, however, remains an ongoing political challenge, particularly in light of a weakened U.N. and Israel’s own military confidence.
Countries in the Gulf have different sources of leverage but remain cautious in how to use them as they prioritize stability above all else. The UAE and Bahrain remain members of the Abraham Accords, while the world is closely watching Saudi Arabia’s moves regarding Israel, especially as it coordinates with France on recognizing a Palestinian state. The UAE, for its part, has been clear that the spirit of the Abraham Accords would be “betray[ed]” if Palestinian lands were annexed by Israel.
And so while the Gulf stresses its continued interest in diplomacy, it is bolstering its own defenses, calling on international actors to deter Israel, and reassessing how it uses its sources of power. Gulf countries continue to be committed to a longer-term peace deal with Israel, but there is increasingly a sense that the current government has no interest in peace.
Stronger public statements may not seem consequential, but they signal a real shift in position. With ramped-up diplomatic talks during the U.N. General Assembly, Gulf states are seeking to get wider recognition that a line was crossed with the strike on Doha. The emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, described Israel as a “rogue” state in his UNGA address and called for a global response to its actions. Now, Gulf states are looking to the international community to stop further lines from being crossed.