Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: Pakistani Army chief Asim Munir arrives in Washington, India’s Supreme Court upholds the 2019 decision to repeal Indian-administered Kashmir’s special autonomous status, and the U.S. Treasury Department sanctions two former Afghan lawmakers.

U.S. and Pakistan Seek Relationship Reset

Pakistani Army chief Asim Munir is visiting Washington this week, at a time when the U.S.-Pakistan relationship is unsettled. Bilateral ties are relatively stable and crisis-free, but the future is uncertain: Washington and Islamabad have struggled to find new anchors for their partnership since U.S. forces left Afghanistan in 2021. A visit from the leader of Pakistan’s powerful military offers opportunities for a reset, but policy divergences may make that difficult.

Munir is different from his immediate predecessors in the army chief role. He doesn’t come from a military family, and he is not an alum of the prestigious Pakistan Military Academy in Abbottabad. He also has few known links to the West, unlike many Pakistani generals who attended U.S. or British training academies and may have family there. Finally, Munir is deeply religious, and he says little publicly.

However, Munir is a soldier to the core. He was born in Rawalpindi, home to Pakistan’s military headquarters, and he quickly rose through the ranks. Like many previous Pakistani Army chiefs, he seeks friendly relations with Washington. In his nearly 13 months in the role, he has met twice in Rawalpindi with Michael Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command, and has spoken twice by phone with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.

Munir is motivated by precedent. Thanks to a legacy of education and training exchanges between the United States and Pakistan, officer-to-officer relations have long been warm—despite tensions over issues such as the Pakistani Army’s support for some terrorist groups. But Munir is also practical: Pakistan’s economy is in crisis, and the United States is its top export destination and a key source of aid.

Munir also wants to tap into shared concerns about Afghanistan-based terrorist groups to help address a resurgence of militancy in Pakistan, led by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). On Tuesday, an attack by a TTP affiliate killed 23 troops in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. However, the top U.S. security concern in Afghanistan is Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), and in recent months, U.S. officials acknowledged that Taliban operations have reduced the IS-K threat, suggesting the United States has less of an incentive to partner with Pakistan.

During Munir’s visit, he and his U.S. interlocutors may find common ground on non-security issues in Afghanistan, such as the delivery of humanitarian aid. Another major U.S. concern is Pakistan’s recent decision to expel 1.7 million undocumented Afghans. The Biden administration wants to ensure that those waiting for special immigration visas to the United States—including many people who worked with the U.S. military—won’t end up back in Afghanistan.

The Biden administration wants to shift the focus of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship away from Afghanistan and security issues and toward trade and investment. Because Pakistan’s military chiefs exert outsized influence over public policy, Munir may bring these issues up himself; he is directly involved in economic recovery efforts. But for Washington, commercial cooperation won’t be a realistic anchor for partnership until Islamabad’s economy is more stable.

Because Munir is meeting U.S. military and security officials, global conflicts are likely on the agenda. The Biden administration will want to hear from Munir on Russia’s war in Ukraine—multiple reports say Pakistan has sent arms to Ukraine, claims rejected by Islamabad—as well as on the war in Gaza. Pakistan backs the Palestinians; Munir, who once served in Saudi Arabia, also has close ties to the Persian Gulf states that are key to wartime diplomacy.

U.S. officials will also want to discuss China. Pakistan has recently signaled a desire to achieve more balance in its relations with the United States and China, a key Pakistani ally. However, back in Pakistan, domestic politics will loom large over Munir’s visit. Since he took office, crackdowns on the country’s political opposition have intensified. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan was jailed in August. National elections are set for February, but delays are possible.

Munir may tell his hosts in Washington that Pakistan’s army has a stabilizing role to play at a moment of serious political turmoil. Administration officials aren’t likely to push back. But Khan’s large support base perceives Munir’s visit, as well as Washington’s relative silence on the recent crackdowns, as a tacit endorsement of repression in Pakistan. Such perceptions could pose an additional challenge for U.S.-Pakistan relations going forward.

What We’re Following

Indian Supreme Court upholds Kashmir decision. On Monday, India’s top court upheld New Delhi’s 2019 decision to revoke the special autonomous status of Indian-administered Kashmir. That status, enshrined in an Indian constitutional provision known as Article 370, gave the then-state of Jammu and Kashmir autonomy over policy issues unrelated to defense and foreign affairs. The repeal of Article 370 split the state into two new union territories, giving New Delhi more control over the area. However, the Supreme Court also called for the region’s statehood to be restored and for elections to be held next year.

The decision to uphold the repeal delivers another political triumph to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, coming on the heels of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s three state election victories this month. The opposition Indian National Congress rejected the Article 370 repeal in 2019, although its position has softened more recently.

The Supreme Court decision delivers a blow to India’s relations with Pakistan, which also claims Kashmir. In recent years, senior Pakistani officials have called for better relations with India, but they have conditioned the resumption of formal dialogue on New Delhi reversing the Article 370 repeal.

Pakistani Supreme Court to address disqualification. Pakistan’s Supreme Court on Monday tasked a three-judge committee with addressing a dispute over the length of disqualification for lawmakers who have been banned from public office. The outcome of the decision will have major implications for Pakistan’s national elections, currently scheduled for Feb. 8.

In 2017, then-Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was disqualified from public office after he was convicted on corruption charges, ending his third term. The next year, the Supreme Court ruled that Sharif’s disqualification was for life. However, in June, shortly before dissolving the National Assembly, the government passed new legislation stipulating that disqualifications last only for five years.

The change seems to pave the way for Nawaz Sharif, whose younger brother Shehbaz Sharif served as prime minister from April 2022 until August, to run for office. Nawaz Sharif returned to Pakistan from self-exile in London in October. However, it remains unclear if the recent legislative amendment can supersede the Supreme Court’s 2018 ruling—as well as how long the new committee’s deliberations will take.

Biden declines India’s Republic Day invite. On Tuesday, Indian media reported that U.S. President Joe Biden will not accept an invitation from New Delhi to be its chief guest at India’s Republic Day festivities in January. In most cases, this would not be a major issue; then-U.S. President Donald Trump declined a similar invitation for the 2019 festivities, only to visit New Delhi in 2020.

However, the move comes at a moment when U.S.-India relations are facing tensions after the United States charged an Indian citizen for a foiled assassination plot against a Sikh separatist activist in New York. Some observers will see Washington’s decision as sending a tough message to New Delhi. But the White House had been aware of the plot since July, and it didn’t cancel any high-level engagements at the time, including Biden’s meeting with Modi in New Delhi in September.

Biden’s decision may instead be tied to scheduling issues. India wanted to combine his visit with the next leaders’ meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, but Australia and Japan’s prime ministers faced scheduling challenges. The White House hasn’t said why Biden can’t attend, but it could also be his State of the Union address; the date of the 2024 speech has not been announced, although last year’s took place in February.

Under the Radar

On Monday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions on two former Afghan lawmakers: Mir Rahman Rahmani, who was once the speaker of Parliament, and his son, Ajmal. In a statement released Tuesday, the elder Rahmani rejected the allegations. The Treasury Department accused the two men of a “complex procurement corruption scheme” ranging from profiting from fuel contracts to engaging in bribery in the Afghan Parliament.

Some of the corruption described in the Treasury Department announcement affected U.S. projects in Afghanistan. The Taliban have predictably exploited the news for political gain, pointing to the case as an example of the corrupt leaders of the pre-Taliban government backed by the United States. (Two Taliban officials were slapped with sanctions a few days earlier for human rights abuses.)

There is little reason to believe that the announcement marks the opening salvo of a wider U.S. campaign against corruption in Afghanistan during the years of the U.S.-led war. The sanctions against the Rahmanis were rolled out around International Anti-Corruption Day, when the Biden administration announced a series of other anti-corruption measures.

The sanctions announcement should also be read in the context of other recent Biden administration initiatives intended to bolster global governance and rights, from new measures to strengthen labor conditions to visa restriction policies meant to promote free and fair elections, including in Bangladesh. Still, the sanctions are significant because they show Washington’s willingness to hold some of its former allies to account for transgressions.

FP’s Most Read This Week

• The Global Credibility Gap by Jared Cohen and Ian Bremmer
• How Will This War End? How Can the Next One be Prevented? by FP Contributors
• It’s Time to Reconsider Turkey’s NATO Membership by Sinan Ciddi

Regional Voices

Journalist Kamal Ahmed argues in Prothom Alo that for all the focus on U.S diplomats’ involvement in Bangladesh’s domestic politics, Beijing has quietly played its own role in Dhaka. “It is interesting to note that it is only the Chinese diplomats who have the record of attending the meetings of political parties in Bangladesh and even delivering speeches at these meetings,” compared to discussions with U.S. diplomats, he writes.

Lawyer Sonam Tshering, writing in Kuensel, praises Bhutan for having a pavilion at the annual United Nations climate change conference for the first time. This year’s event concluded this week in Dubai. “The establishment of the first-ever Bhutan Pavilion signifies a strategic move to amplify Bhutan’s voice on the international stage,” he writes.

In the Print, writer Tina Das criticizes the recent controversy in India over actress Deepika Padukone wearing a black monokini in a film in which she plays a fighter pilot. “Bollywood leading ladies have always been scrutinized and judged for sartorial choices,” she notes. “It’s time we came to terms with the fact that women can wear bikinis and still fly planes.”