• Foreign & Public Diplomacy

January 13, 2025, 4:14 PM View Comments ()

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at a “breakthrough” in Israel-Hamas cease-fire talks, Lebanon’s new prime minister, and efforts to counter Chinese vessels in the South China Sea.

The Last Few Hurdles

Qatari mediators presented a final draft of an Israel-Hamas cease-fire and hostage release deal on Monday after making a significant “breakthrough” during overnight talks to end the 15-month war in Gaza. “Progress has been made, and I hope that within a short time, we will see things happening,” Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said. “But it is still to be proved.”

The current deal, based on a U.S. proposal, outlines a phased truce that aims to create a permanent cessation to the fighting. The first phase would establish a temporary cease-fire and see Hamas release up to 33 Israeli hostages out of the roughly 100 captives believed to still be in Gaza. If that stage carries out as planned, then Israel would begin negotiations to receive the rest of the hostages, including the bodies of those believed to be dead, in exchange for some Palestinian prisoners. During this period, Israeli forces would remain in the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egypt-Gaza border as well as in a new buffer zone inside of the territory.

Israeli officials said the weakening of Iranian-backed proxy groups and allies in the Middle East, including the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah’s diminishment in Lebanon, helped put pressure on Hamas that enabled progress toward a deal. Hamas has had “their military formations destroyed, their top leader taken out, their main proxy allies badly decimated, and their sponsor, Iran, weakened and distracted,” U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said at a Bloomberg event on Monday. “So, I think the pressure is building for Hamas to come to yes.”

However, several obstacles still remain. According to Egyptian and Hamas officials, the two sides have yet to agree on a few key issues, namely Israel’s promise to abide by a permanent end to the fighting and the details of the Israeli withdrawal.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly signaled that he is only willing to commit to the deal’s first phase to allow for “total victory” over Hamas in order to appease his right-wing backers. Ten members of his Likud party sent the prime minister a letter on Monday expressing concern about the potential agreement, and far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich posted on X that such a deal would be a “catastrophe” for Israel’s national security. Two factions within Netanyahu’s ruling coalition have threatened to leave the government if Israel makes too many concessions.

Sources close to the talks told The Associated Press on Monday that the coming days will be critical. “We are very, very close,” said Brett McGurk, U.S. President Joe Biden’s Middle East advisor, who is in Doha this week to assist negotiations. “Yet being very close still means we’re far because until you actually get across the finish line, we’re not there.”

Mediators have said they were close to clinching a cease-fire deal several times in recent months, but talks have stalled each time. However, Israeli officials argue that pressure from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has spurred truce efforts. The incoming president has warned that there will be “hell to pay” if Hamas does not release the remaining Israeli hostages by the time that he takes office on Jan. 20. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, joined negotiations last week.

Even as talks reportedly neared their end on Monday, bloodshed continued in Gaza, with Israeli strikes killing more than 40 people. More than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since the war began on Oct. 7, 2023. Also on Monday, the Israel Defense Forces announced that five of its soldiers had been killed and another 10 wounded in northern Gaza that morning, bringing the military’s death toll in the Gaza ground operation to more than 400 people.

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The World This Week

Tuesday, Jan. 14: The impeachment trial for South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol opens.

Finland hosts the Baltic Sea NATO Allies Summit.

French Prime Minister François Bayrou outlines his vision for Paris’s new government.

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake begins a four-day visit to China.

Wednesday, Jan. 15: United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres briefs the General Assembly on his priorities for 2025.

Mozambican President-elect Daniel Chapo is inaugurated.

Thursday, Jan. 16: Vanuatu holds snap parliamentary elections.

Friday, Jan. 17: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.

Monday, Jan. 20: The World Economic Forum begins its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

What We’re Following

Another loss for Hezbollah. Newly elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun chose Nawaf Salam, the head of the International Court of Justice, as the country’s next prime minister on Monday. Backed by more than half of all parliamentarians, Salam’s designation signals how weak Hezbollah—long a dominant force in Lebanese politics—has become in Beirut. The militant group had wanted caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati to keep the job.

“Salam symbolizes change,” Al Jazeera reporter Zeina Khodr said, as “he does not belong to the political class that has been governing this country for decades.” Aoun was elected president by Lebanon’s parliament last Thursday, ending a yearslong power vacuum in a country plagued by economic crises and government corruption.

Salam is widely seen as a reformist who came to global prominence last year for his role presiding over South Africa’s genocide case against Israel. In the coming days, he will be tasked with forming a government and running Lebanon’s day-to-day politics.

Countering Beijing. The United States, the Philippines, and Japan agreed on Monday to deepen trilateral cooperation in the face of rising threats to Indo-Pacific waters. Specifically, they warned against China’s “dangerous and unlawful behavior in the South China Sea” in recent months, which has culminated in several standoffs between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the disputed Second Thomas Shoal.

The countries’ three leaders met virtually on Monday to discuss enhancing their economic, maritime, and technological collaborations. “I’m optimistic that my successor will also see the value of continuing this partnership and that it is framed the right way,” Biden said in reference to the incoming Trump administration. Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba also used the meeting to discuss Washington’s controversial decision to halt Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel.

Monday’s talks expanded on a first-of-its-kind trilateral summit held in Washington last April, where the three countries announced an economic corridor on the Philippine island of Luzon that the United States hopes to use to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Election weekend. Croatian President Zoran Milanovic won reelection on Sunday with more than 74 percent of the vote. His win forecasts another five years of divided governance, with Milanovic being a major opponent of Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic. Milanovic is known for opposing Western military support for Ukraine, criticizing the European Union and NATO, and using combative rhetoric to discuss his political opponents. He is the most popular politician in Croatia.

Also on Sunday, Comoros held parliamentary elections to decide the 33 seats in the island nation’s legislature. However, many opposition candidates boycotted the vote after accusing President Azali Assoumani of using authoritarian practices to threaten the election’s integrity. “The election was marred by gross fraud, ballot box stuffing, and in several stations, there were more votes than registered voters,” opposition leader Daoud Abdallah Mohamed said on Monday. A second round of voting will be held on Feb. 16, though Mohamed said his United Opposition coalition would not participate.

Odds and Ends

Don’t get your knickers in a twist. Riders of the London Underground on Sunday were allowed to forgo some clothes for the city’s annual Official No Trousers Tube Ride. The reason for the event? Well, sometimes you don’t need a reason. “There’s so much bad, so much not fun going on,’’ said Dave Selkirk, the event’s ringleader. “It’s nice to do something just for the sake of it.” The event first kicked off in New York City in 2002 and has since spread around the world. Although Washington, D.C., held its own no-pants subway ride on Sunday, FP’s World Brief writer did not take the Metro.