Russia’s War in Ukraine
Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep. Cabinet members—they’re just like us: annoyed by flight delays. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s delegation had to drive to Brussels from Paris for NATO foreign ministers’ meetings this week after his Boeing jet broke down. Yeah, we’re sticking to the Washington Metro’s Red Line to get to work.
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: NATO looks to coordinate more military aid for Ukraine, Israel’s airstrike on World Central Kitchen workers causes the biggest uproar over President Joe Biden’s Gaza policy yet, and a top House Republican calls out the GOP for falling for Russian propaganda.
Can NATO Trump-Proof Its Future?
With no new U.S. military aid on the way to Ukraine—for now—NATO is looking to step up in a big way.
The 32-nation alliance is considering taking over the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the U.S.-led group of nations that coordinates military aid deliveries to Kyiv. It’s also looking to establish a five-year aid package to Ukraine worth more than $100 billion, alliance officials confirm to SitRep (the Financial Times first reported the news on Tuesday), with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg pitching the effort to the allies directly.
“Every day of delay in the decision in the United States on providing more support to Ukraine has consequences on the battlefield,” Stoltenberg told reporters on Wednesday. “So we have a responsibility as NATO allies to take the decisions and to ensure that the Ukrainians get the ammunition they must have to be able to continue to push back the Russian invaders.”
Trump-proofing. NATO’s not saying the quiet part out loud, but much of this effort centers on future-proofing the alliance—and Ukraine’s security—if Donald Trump wins a second term as U.S. president. It’s going to be much easier said than done.
Trump hasn’t said he would cut U.S. military aid to Ukraine (though he held up military aid to Kyiv in his first term in a move that led to his first impeachment). But he has insisted that he would broker a peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin—Ukraine has said it won’t participate in peace talks with Moscow until all Russian forces leave Ukrainian territory—and that he would encourage the Russians to “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO allies that don’t spend enough on defense.
Robbie recently spent three days traveling with Stoltenberg and has a new piece out with Stoltenberg’s thoughts on what Trump 2.0 might mean for the alliance. Read it here.
Urgent needs. There are some problems with NATO’s flashy new $100 billion plan, unveiled to alliance officials at a NATO foreign minister’s meeting in Brussels this week that coincides with the alliance’s 75th anniversary.
The plan appears to be a long-term one meant to outfit the Ukrainian military of the future. But Ukraine’s needs are much more urgent: It is running low on ammunition while Russia is stepping up attacks and by all accounts gearing up for major offensives later in the spring.
At a NATO-Ukraine Council meeting in Brussels today, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged the alliance to send more Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine to help clear the skies (Germany plans to help with the search for available systems). “I don’t want to spoil the birthday party, but my main message today will be Patriots,” Kuleba said.
Fine print. You know the old saying: Some restrictions may apply; see store for details.
That’s true in this case, too. NATO doesn’t have much money of its own. With that in mind, NATO’s $100 billion plan looks nice on paper but will be difficult to actually implement. For the plan to work, it will need the alliance’s political willpower and muscle to push the 32 member states to get it done. And that still requires tapping into the biggest “arsenal of democracy” the alliance has: the United States.
Plans in Brussels can’t get around Europe’s—and Ukraine’s—excessive dependence on U.S. military power.
“The alliance keeps getting headlines that suggest it is going to do things it absolutely can’t do like, say, instantly put 300,000 troops on high-alert (their 2020 announcement) or pull 100 billion out of thin air (this weeks story),” the Washington Post’s Brussels bureau chief Emily Rauhala tweeted on Thursday. In short, it’s a game of wait and see.
Don’t do it. NATO’s recent moves come after weeks of members flirting with the idea of sending troops to Kyiv. French President Emmanuel Macron famously declined to rule out the possibility last month (though British Foreign Secretary David Cameron has).
In a rare phone call on Wednesday with French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu warned that France will “create problems” for itself if it sends troops to Ukraine. Though Shoigu also offered a seeming olive branch for potential talks to conclude the war, the phone call alone sends quite a message.
Let’s Get Personnel
Michael Carpenter is the new senior director for Europe at the National Security Council, replacing Amanda Sloat, who recently left the Biden administration. Carpenter was previously U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Vienna.
Daniel Erikson is now the senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs at the National Security Council. Erikson moves over from the Pentagon, where he served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for the region.
Gordon Sondland, the former U.S. ambassador to the European Union during the Trump administration, has registered to lobby for Ukraine.
Aaron Stein is taking over as the president and CEO of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was previously the chief content officer at Metamorphic Media and War on the Rocks.
Millie Tran has joined the Council on Foreign Relations as a vice president and chief digital content officer.
On the Button
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Biden’s red lines. Israel’s strike on a clearly marked World Central Kitchen aid convoy on Monday, which killed seven aid workers, drew sharp international condemnation even in the midst of a war that has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians. Officials in Washington have become increasingly exasperated with Israel’s scorched earth tactics while continuing to supply the country with weapons and military aid. In private, U.S. officials have warned of a famine underway in Gaza on a scale that is “unprecedented in modern history.”
Drawing red lines has been a historically fraught exercise for U.S presidents, particularly when they don’t follow through, as Barack Obama learned the hard way in Syria. But it’s unclear where Biden’s limits lie. On Thursday, Biden spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the phone and called on the Israeli leader to implement specific steps to reduce civilian harm and ensure the safety of aid workers, according to a White House readout of the call. Speaking afterward, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the administration wants to see Israel take such steps in a matter of “hours and days,” and added that if there is no change, then U.S. policy will have to change.
—Amy Mackinnon
Best laid plans. Top State Department officials who were rushed into Afghanistan in the final days of the two-decade U.S. war had to build withdrawal plans from scratch, the officials told a House panel behind closed doors this week. The testimony appears to counter that of other diplomats at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, who said that planning for the evacuation began in April or May of 2021.
Back in touch. Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a call on Tuesday to talk about Taiwan, security, and artificial intelligence. The 105-minute call is a sign that the leaders of the two superpowers are getting back to holding regular conversations—however tense—after a significant rupture in the relationship over then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022, which led to stepped-up Chinese exercises around the island. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is set to travel to China today, followed by Blinken in the coming weeks, officials tell SitRep. Xi also met with U.S. business leaders in Beijing this week.
Snapshot
A person walks past a damaged building following a major 7.4-magnitude earthquake that hit eastern Taiwan, seen in the coastal city of Hualien, Taiwan, on April 4. Annabelle Chih/Getty Images
Put On Your Radar
Thursday, April 4: NATO celebrates its 75th birthday by hosting the second day of the alliance’s foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels. Kuwait holds a general election.
Sunday, April 7: Poland holds local elections. The genocide in Rwanda began 30 years ago today. Six-month mark of Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel that sparked the ongoing war on the Gaza Strip.
Wednesday, April 10: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visits the White House. South Korea holds parliamentary elections.
Quote of the Week
“I think Russian propaganda has made its way into the United States, unfortunately, and it’s infected a good chunk of my party’s base.”
—House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul criticizes his fellow Republicans for buying into Russian disinformation in an interview with Puck’s Julia Ioffe.
This Week’s Most Read
- Why Biden Can’t Force a Truce on Israel—or Won’t by Aaron David Miller and Adam Israelevitz
- Is This a Revolution? Or Are People Just Very Ticked Off? by Michael Hirsh
- Nobody Actually Knows What Russia Does Next by Stephen M. Walt
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
Unexpected promotion. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas will not be NATO’s next leader, but will instead be appointed queen of all Europe, the farcical Le Chou News wrote in a fictitious news post. Even Kallas got a nice laugh out of it. “Good one,” she tweeted back.
Mile-high drama. The White House Correspondents’ Association this week had to issue stern warnings to reporters traveling with the president to stop stealing stuff off Air Force One after a raft of thefts of pillows, plates, and other trinkets. (We at SitRep are innocent, for the record, not because a free branded pillowcase doesn’t sound cool, but mostly because we’ve never been on Air Force One.)