• Military
• Russia
• Europe
• Ukraine

With U.S. aid now in doubt and the extent of future European weapons deliveries uncertain, Kyiv has demonstrated the ability to rapidly develop a strategic strike capability, which was the preserve of the superpowers until recently. With a mix of weapons that includes ballistic and cruise missiles, guided munitions, and long-range drones—many of which Ukraine now produces itself—it has achieved strategic parity with Russia in conventional strike operations.

Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy, logistics, and industrial targets are part of its economic warfare against the Kremlin. But they also reflect Kyiv’s desire to change the narrative about the war, inflict political pain on Putin, and posture itself for negotiations to end the war.

The attacks come as Russian advances—slow but relentless throughout much of 2024—appear to be stalling along much of the front line. The costs to Moscow are rising, with NATO officials estimating 530,000 Russian casualties in 2024 alone and British intelligence saying that December 2024 and January 2025 were the two deadliest months of the war for Russia.

When Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine did not have much capability for long-range precision strikes. Initially, the Ukrainians modified old Soviet-era surveillance drones for strike operations. The United States supplied Ukraine with HIMARS and ATACM launchers, while Britain provided Storm Shadow missiles that extended its ability to strike Russian targets. More recently, Ukraine has domestically developed and produced several additional strike systems, which have now been hitting military targets such as headquarters, troop concentrations, airfields, logistics nodes, fuel depots, and munitions storage, as well as strategic targets such as oil refineries and defense-related factories.

The Ukrainian military also expanded its strategic strike options at sea. It has developed and deployed uncrewed naval strike vessels against a much-reduced Russian Black Sea fleet to secure the western parts of that sea. Without the capacity to build a conventional navy to contest sea lanes, Ukraine also developed naval drones that can launch aerial surveillance, strike drones, and anti-aircraft missiles.

Ukraine’s rapid development and adaptation of its strategic strike system shows that domestic solutions to such problems can be delivered quickly, cheaply, and without the use restrictions that foreign weapon suppliers often impose. Ukraine’s approach has provided multiple options for strike operations at an affordable cost. Given the uncertainty of future U.S. support to allies and the growing threat posed by Moscow and Beijing as Washington retreats, this is exactly what many nations in Europe and Asia need as they seek to rapidly upgrade their military capabilities.