• Foreign & Public Diplomacy

February 21, 2025, 4:16 PM View Comments ()

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Israel’s anger at Hamas over a botched hostage release, a Chinese maritime exercise near Australia’s coast, and snap parliamentary elections in Germany.

Cease-Fire Setback

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed revenge on Friday for what he called Hamas’s “cruel and malicious violation” of the cease-fire and hostage release deal. Hamas had promised to release the bodies of four Israeli captives on Thursday: Oded Lifshitz; Shiri Bibas; and Bibas’s two children, Ariel and Kfir, who were 4 years old and 9 months old, respectively, at the time of their capture. But upon examination of the remains, Israeli officials discovered that another body whose DNA does not match any of the captives had been returned instead of Shiri’s.

“We demand that Hamas return Shiri home along with all our hostages,” the Israeli military said, adding that “this is a violation of utmost severity.”

Hamas blamed an Israeli airstrike that it claims killed the four hostages for the mix-up, saying that Palestinians’ remains were also found in the rubble. However, Israel said that forensic evidence from examination of the bodies as well as intelligence showed that the two children were killed by their captors “with their bare hands,” and not by an Israeli attack.

It is unclear how the incident may affect the fragile truce deal in Gaza. Hamas said on Friday that it will “conduct a thorough review” to determine what happened, and the militant group confirmed that it will still release six living hostages on Saturday in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Hamas has “no interest in retaining any bodies” and has “demonstrated full compliance with the agreement in recent days and remain committed to all its terms,” the group said.

But experts worry that Israeli anger over the infraction—coupled with a suspected terrorist attack in Tel Aviv late Thursday, in which three empty buses exploded—could be enough to push Netanyahu to resume fighting in Gaza.

Tensions in the West Bank heightened on Friday following the bus attack. According to Israeli police, the bus explosions were retaliation for an Israeli raid on the Tulkarm refugee camp in the occupied territory. Explosives that did not detonate were found on at least one other bus in the area. No casualties were reported in any of the incidents. Two Jewish Israelis as well as one Palestinian have reportedly been arrested on suspicion of involvement, though further details are scant as the case has been placed under a gag order.

On Friday, Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to conduct “an intensive operation against centers of terrorism” in the West Bank, adding to months of Israeli raids against alleged militants in the area. Israel’s Shin Bet intelligence agency has opened an investigation into the incident, and authorities temporarily halted all bus and train services nationwide for fear of further attacks.

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What We’re Following

Secret warship drill. Commercial Australian airlines intercepted a Chinese navy broadcast on Friday concerning a secret live-fire exercise over the Tasman Sea crossing. According to Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, three Chinese warships were conducting drills off Australia’s east coast, forcing flights for three airlines (Emirates, Qantas, and Virgin Australia) en route to New Zealand to change course. “This was very disconcerting for the planes that were flying,” Marles said.

The drill was legal, as it took place in international waters outside of Canberra’s exclusive economic zone. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese reassured reporters on Friday that the exercise posed no imminent risk to Australian or New Zealand assets. And Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said, “The drill was carried out in a safe, standard, and professional manner in compliance with relevant international law and international practice.”

But Australian authorities also raised concerns about the inadequate notice given to Canberra. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said she would discuss the disruption with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi during this week’s G-20 foreign ministers’ meeting in South Africa. Canberra and Wellington had been monitoring the Chinese fleet since last week, but they had not known that warships would be sent to the region.

Germany goes to the polls. Germans will vote to elect 630 members of parliament on Sunday in a snap election that could see big wins for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. Latest polling predicts that Berlin’s mainstream parties will suffer losses come Sunday, even as election front-runner Friedrich Merz of the CDU/CSU coalition warns that Germany’s future must lie with the West, not with right-wing populists who support Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trouble has been brewing for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party for months. In November, Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, triggering the breakup of his ruling traffic light coalition and sparking a no-confidence vote. At the same time, the AfD has seen a surge in popularity as anti-immigrant sentiment across Europe grows and the far right adopts some of U.S. President Donald Trump’s talking points.

A new ruling coalition, though, may be hard to come by. Analysts expect that it will be near impossible for any two mainstream parties to form a majority if they don’t also join forces with the AfD. Doing so, however, would be a dramatic break in the status quo; Germany’s mainstream parties refuse to work with the AfD due to its connections with neo-Nazi figures and anti-democratic policies.

Threat to sovereignty. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday that she plans to propose constitutional reforms that aim to protect the country’s sovereignty against potential U.S. aggression. Her statement is a direct response to the Trump administration designating eight criminal groups, six of which are Mexican drug cartels, as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) on Thursday without first consulting Mexico City.

Such actions have officials worried that the United States could use the FTO designations as rationale for future military intervention on Mexican soil. “The Mexican people will not accept under any circumstances interventions, interference, or any other act from abroad that could be harmful to the integrity, independence, and sovereignty of the nation,” Sheinbaum said. Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, has threatened military action if Mexican cartels target U.S. security forces.

Among her proposals, Sheinbaum said she wants to apply the most severe penalties to foreigners involved in gun manufacturing, smuggling, and distribution; Mexico has repeatedly demanded that Washington do more to stop U.S. guns from entering the country. Sheinbaum also said she would not allow foreign involvement in investigations or prosecutions without Mexico City’s prior approval and collaboration.

What in the World?

What did U.S. President Donald Trump call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in an online statement on Wednesday?

A. A “tyrant”
B. A “baby”
C. A “dictator”
D. A “weakling”

Odds and Ends

A joint Egyptian-British archaeological team would have made Indiana Jones proud on Tuesday when it announced that it had discovered the tomb of King Thutmose II, an ancient Egyptian leader who reigned thousands of years ago. Originally identified as “Tomb C4” and located just west of the Valley of Kings, the site contained artifacts inscribed with Thutmose’s name as well as those of his wife and half-sister, Queen Hatshepsut. This was the biggest tomb discovered in more than a century.

And the Answer Is…

C. A “dictator”

Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines are watching with concern as Trump grows closer to Russia, Fabrice Deprez reports.

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