Israel-Hamas War

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Israel’s revised hostage numbers in Gaza, pivotal elections in Poland and Ecuador, and two more deadly earthquakes in Afghanistan.

At least 199 people are being held hostage by Hamas and other Palestinian militants in Gaza, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, a spokesperson with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), announced on Monday. That is a significant increase from Israel’s previous estimate of 150 hostages following Hamas’s assault against Israel on Oct. 7.

Israel affirmed on Monday that securing the release of the hostages, who include Israelis as well as foreign nationals, is a top national concern, but Hagari denied rumors of a cease-fire agreement that would create a humanitarian corridor into the Gaza Strip and allow foreign passport holders in the territory to escape via the border crossing into Egypt. “There is no cease-fire. We are continuing with our operational activity,” Hagari said.

The U.S. State Department confirmed on Sunday that an undisclosed number of U.S. citizens are among the hostages. At least 30 U.S. nationals have been killed in the fighting, and 13 others remain unaccounted for. Still, U.S. President Joe Biden warned against a full Israeli occupation of Gaza, calling it a “big mistake” even as the IDF prepares for a ground assault.

More than 1,400 Israelis and 2,600 Palestinians have been killed in the war thus far, with at least 10,000 people wounded on both sides. That number is expected to rise as Israel defends its decision to cut off electricity, fuel, and food into Gaza while ordering all residents of the territory to evacuate everywhere north of Wadi Gaza, including Gaza City.

Less than 100 miles north of Gaza, Israel declared a closed military zone along its northern border with Lebanon on Sunday, warning all Israeli civilians not to travel within about 2.5 miles of the border or risk being targeted. The decision follows strikes by Hezbollah, a Shiite Islamist group based in Lebanon, on Sunday that killed one Israeli. According to Hezbollah officials, the attack was in retaliation against Israeli strikes a day earlier that killed two Lebanese citizens and Reuters camera operator Issam Abdallah.

• Why the Oslo Peace Process Failed by Aaron David Miller
• Vengeance Is Not a Policy by Ian S. Lustick
• The 1973 War Analogy Is Deeper Than You Think by Kenneth M. Pollack

Tuesday, Oct. 17: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts King Abdullah II of Jordan.

French President Emmanuel Macron meets with Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visits Lebanon.

Tuesday, Oct. 17, to Wednesday, Oct. 18: Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing.

Wednesday, Oct. 18: Xi meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee considers the nomination of Jacob Lew as the U.S. ambassador to Israel.

Wednesday, Oct. 18, to Thursday, Oct. 19: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visits North Korea.

Thursday, Oct. 19: The central banks of Indonesia and South Korea determine their interest rates.

Thursday, Oct. 19, to Sunday, Oct. 22: The Arctic Circle Assembly convenes in Reykjavik, Iceland.

Friday, Oct. 20: Biden hosts European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel.

Sunday, Oct. 22: Switzerland holds federal elections.

Venezuela holds primary elections for the opposition.

Argentina holds a general election.

Turning the tide. Poland may soon see its greatest political shift in almost a decade, as exit polls from Sunday’s parliamentary vote show the Civic Coalition, a centrist opposition bloc headed by former European Council President Donald Tusk, on track to be able to form a coalition government with two other parties, ousting the ruling conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party.

PiS has been in power since 2015, during which time it has cracked down on LGBTQ rights, migration, and press freedom, eroding the country’s democratic practices as it pivoted away from European Union integration. A Civic Coalition win could see that trend reversed.

Meanwhile, Ecuadorians cast ballots in a presidential runoff on Sunday. Center-right business heir Daniel Noboa won 52 percent of the vote, promising to fight youth unemployment and rising crime rates. Ecuador’s election has been plagued by gang violence in recent months, culminating with the assassination of anti-corruption candidate Fernando Villavicencio on Aug. 9.

Earthquake devastation. Afghanistan’s Herat province was once again rocked by two powerful earthquakes on Sunday, the fourth and fifth such quakes it has experienced in just over a week. At least four people were killed and 153 others wounded, adding to an estimated 1,300 people killed when the first two earthquakes struck the region on Oct. 7. A third earthquake hit just days later.

With the latest quakes’ epicenters just 21 miles outside of Herat, Afghanistan’s third-largest city, the province is struggling to recover. More than 90 percent of victims have been women and children, UNICEF Afghanistan reported, and that’s not accounting for the psychological toll that five almost back-to-back catastrophes could have on a population already facing dire humanitarian and economic crises.

Heading home. Four Ukrainian children returned to their families on Monday after Qatari officials negotiated their release from Russia. The children, ages 2 to 17, were living at the Qatari Embassy in Moscow while Doha negotiated their release. Qatar has increasingly stepped forward as a mediator for international conflicts in recent months, with its previous efforts helping to secure a U.S.-Iran prisoner swap in August.

In March, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against Putin and Russia’s human rights commissioner for forcibly transferring Ukrainian children, deemed a war crime under international law. The warrant has since restricted Putin’s travel, including by forcing him to send Lavrov to the so-called BRICS summit in South Africa in his stead. However, Putin will travel to China on Tuesday for the Belt and Road Forum, his first time visiting a country not formerly part of the Soviet Union since the warrant was issued.

One German couple took “I’m lovin’ it” to a whole new level last Thursday when they celebrated their “I dos” at a small-town McDonald’s in Michigan. Clad in full wedding attire, the newlyweds chowed down on McNuggets and snapped photos with Grimace, all in an effort to have the “ultimate United States wedding.” Now comes their long-anticipated honeymoon: a road trip across the Midwest and Northeast, complete with a few more McDonald’s stops along the way.