2023
Part of what makes Russia’s war on Ukraine such a world-changing event is that it’s not just about the latter’s survival as a state. The war has also cast a spotlight on the future of Russia itself. Will it ever settle in its borders? Will the Kremlin turn its stated aims into action and try to restore its Cold War-era empire beyond Ukraine? What happens if Russia loses the war?
That nuclear-armed Russia is not as stable as its leaders would have us believe became obvious last June, when Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin launched an armed rebellion that brought his mercenaries almost to the gates of Moscow. The most significant challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin since he took power in 2000 ended in Prigozhin’s fiery death and a further crackdown on the regime’s critics.
Since then, Putin has hunkered down for a long war. With some 20,000 Russians arrested for anti-war infractions since 2022, dissent has been smashed. A staged election planned for 2024 will extend Putin’s rule for another six years; all serious challengers have been murdered, jailed, or pushed into exile. The Russian economy has been thoroughly retooled for war.
But whether the gamble Putin took on Feb. 24, 2022, will pay off is still unclear. If he wins in Ukraine, Europe could face other wars as Putin seeks to restore what he believes to be Russia’s rightful sphere of control in Eastern and Central Europe. If he loses, Russia might enter a spiral of instability at home. At Foreign Policy, we asked our best authors to spin some of these scenarios forward. Here are some of their most noteworthy articles from 2023.
1. The Dream of a European Security Order With Russia Is Dead
By Kristi Raik, Oct. 31
How will a future Russia fit into the European security order? France, Germany, and other European states long tried to partner with the Kremlin and grow economic ties. That vision crashed and burned with Russia’s invasion, leaving Europe to struggle for an alternative.
2. Why Putin Will Never Agree to De-Escalate
By Maxim Samorukov, June 13
Putin has everything to gain domestically by keeping his country on a war footing, Maxim Samorukov writes. That is one of many reasons why Moscow has no interest in negotiating an end to its brutal war in Ukraine.
People walk past a Kremlin star bearing the letter Z, the tactical insignia of Russian troops in Ukraine, in Moscow on Dec. 29, 2022.ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP via Getty Images
3. Staring Down the Black Hole of Russia’s Future
By Anastasia Edel, March 10
“Increasingly lawless, economically doomed, and morally bankrupt, Russia is running out of good endings,” writes Anastasia Edel, who grew up in the Soviet Union and is no longer optimistic that Russia can take a turn for the better. She argues that only a clear defeat by Ukraine offers Russians the prospect of positive change after centuries of imperialism.
4. It’s High Time to Prepare for Russia’s Collapse
By Alexander J. Motyl, Jan. 7
In one of Foreign Policy’s most-read articles in 2023, Alexander J. Motyl examines scenarios for a breakup of the Russian Federation, which still contains dozens of colonized non-Russian peoples. Whatever its likelihood in the years ahead, not planning for such a disintegration betrays a dangerous lack of imagination among Western policymakers, Motyl writes.
5. Russia’s Frighteningly Fascist Youth
By Ian Garner, May 21
In an excerpt from his book, Z Generation: Into the Heart of Russia’s Fascist Youth, Ian Garner describes a new generation of Russians that glorifies war, death, and Putin—a creed that embodies the darkest elements of 20th-century fascism.