Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep!
Here’s what’s on tap for the day: A look at how much damage the Houthis and their Iranian weapons can do in the Red Sea, disorder on Capitol Hill over U.S. military aid and the southern border, and how Sweden is making the most of NATO’s waiting room.
Building Up
Since they first began launching missile and drone attacks at commercial ships to protest the Israeli military offensive in Gaza last November, the Houthis in Yemen have drastically cut maritime trade in the Red Sea, a strategic global trade chokepoint. Since Nov. 19, there have been at least 30 attacks on ships in the Red Sea, of which 13 suffered direct drone or missile strikes.
U.S. and British strikes on Houthi military targets, which began on Jan. 11, have degraded the Houthis’ arsenal, but they haven’t stopped or even slowed the group’s attacks so far. (The attacks have proved to be a massive boon for the Houthis’ reputation and credentials both internally in Yemen and in the region, amid a groundswell of anger at the high civilian casualty toll in Gaza.)
The two big questions. There are two major questions on everyone’s minds in Washington as they scramble to deal with this crisis. The first is how much damage the Houthis can do. The second is how long they can keep it up.
On the economic side, a lot of damage has already been done. The Houthi attacks have sent shockwaves through the global economy as maritime shipping companies reroute their container ships to avoid the Red Sea. Maritime trade through Egypt’s Suez Canal, the waterway connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, dropped 42 percent in the previous two months, a top U.N. official warned last month, putting new strains on global food supply chains as Africa and Asia rely on European food staple exports through the sea. There’s also a nagging new fear that the Houthis, or their backers in Iran, could turn to targeting undersea cables in the region that carry nearly all the data and financial communications between Europe and Asia, as our colleague Keith Johnson reports this week.
Then there’s the risk of the conflict spiraling. Neither the United States nor Iran want these limited proxy conflicts to turn into an all-out war. But that doesn’t take a major escalation, through a lucky Houthi strike or a miscalculation, off the table.
So far, U.S. warships in the region have been able to shoot down all Houthi missiles and drones that have come near them—including one particularly close call last week—but one lucky strike by a Houthi salvo that causes U.S. casualties could dramatically escalate the conflict. U.S. President Joe Biden would certainly face a groundswell of political pressure, particularly from Iran hawks, to launch a devastating response if Houthi attacks caused any U.S. casualties or struck U.S. warships.
So, how long can the Houthis keep this up? The United States and Britain have so far conducted three rounds of joint strikes in Yemen targeting the Houthis’ military arsenal—the Biden administration has approved several more unilaterally—and the U.S. and British militaries have been open about what they’ve hit. In the latest strike, for instance, the U.S. military announced that on Wednesday night, it took out two Houthi mobile anti-ship cruise missiles ready to launch and about two hours later made a second strike against a Houthi mobile land attack cruise missile that was on the launchpad.
But there’s still a lot we don’t know. Notably, no Western government has been open about estimates of how many missiles and drones the Houthis have left. And that precise information is very hard to come by if you don’t have a security clearance. (We don’t.)
A new intelligence report sheds some light. The U.S. Defense Department’s intelligence arm is out with a new unclassified report this week detailing just what’s in the Houthis’ arsenal—most of it tech that can be linked back to Iran. This includes unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) that act as remote suicide bombers. The Houthis claim their Sammad one-way attack UAV has a range of more than 1,100 miles and can carry a payload of around 45 to 110 pounds. (The Sammad looks almost identical to an Iranian drone model called the Sayad, or KAS-04.)
The longest-range drones that Iran has given the Houthis have the ability to strike targets as far as 1,500 miles away, potentially putting almost all of the 30,000 U.S. troops now based in the region at risk.
Since 2015, as the defense intelligence report notes, Iran has provided the Houthis with an arsenal of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, including the Asif anti-ship ballistic missile that has been lobbed at targets in the Red Sea and the longer-range Toofan ballistic missile (which bears a remarkable resemblance to Iran’s Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile).
There isn’t much publicly available information on the precise size of the Houthis’ arsenal, but their yearslong civil war against Saudi-backed forces in Yemen provides at least a partial glimpse into this question. Between 2015 and the end of 2021, the Houthis launched 851 UAVs and 430 rockets and ballistic missiles against Saudi targets, according to data from the Saudi armed forces.
Yes, but… There are two things to keep in mind, though. The first is that while the Houthis’ supplies aren’t limitless, the group has already shown it can do a lot of damage with just a limited number of strikes. Even an arsenal of a few dozen missiles and a few dozen drones can keep up pressure on trade in the Red Sea, and on the U.S. Navy patrolling it, for months to come.
The second is that, as we said, the Houthis have been engaged in a war for eight years against the Saudi-backed government in Yemen—and have maintained their arsenal under years of Saudi airstrikes. And unfortunately for the United States and its allies, the group has gotten pretty good at it.
“We have the Saudi track record to look at,” said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. “Eight years of trying to degrade Houthi capabilities and prevent them from replenishing their weaponry with strict embargoes—it didn’t work,” he added. “We can repeat the same experience over and over again and expect a different result, but it’s hard to imagine that changing.”
In short, the game of Houthi strikes and U.S. and British counterstrikes doesn’t have any end in sight yet.
Let’s Get Personnel
After more than a week of speculation that a firing was in the offing, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Thursday that Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi would be moved out of his job and replaced by Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi. Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s first top general since independence who never served in the Soviet Army, has been beloved by his troops for his sense of humor and adopting a flexible NATO-nation style of fighting against the Russians. Syrskyi has the reputation of an old Soviet general. No matter what happens, this will be interesting.
Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, who heads up the United Nations political mission in Iraq, told the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday that she expects to depart in May. She has been on the job for five years.
Stephen Capus has been named the president and CEO of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, the U.S. government-funded media outlet, after serving as acting president since January.
Dana Stroul has rejoined the Washington Institute for Near East Policy as the think tank’s research director after serving as U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East for the past three years.
Former British diplomat Kate Johnston has joined the Center for a New American Security as an associate fellow in the trans-Atlantic security program.
On the Button
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Payback. A U.S. drone strike hit a car in eastern Baghdad on Wednesday night. The strike reportedly killed three members of the Kataib Hezbollah militia, including Wissam Mohammed “Abu Bakr” al-Saadi, the commander in charge of Kataib Hezbollah’s operations in Syria. This came amid a wave of U.S. strikes on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria following a drone strike in Jordan that killed three U.S. service members and wounded dozens of others.
In the waiting room. Sweden isn’t just sitting around while it waits for the Hungarian parliament to approve its NATO bid—the only hurdle left between Stockholm and NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense shield of protection. Jack has an in-depth story out about how the Swedes have kept themselves busy in the alliance’s waiting room. They’ve been fielding stealthy corvettes with air defense systems on board, an entire new fleet of homemade Gripen fighter jets, and the command and control system that ties NATO ships and planes together.
And it’s no wonder why: Russia has been testing submarines in international waters near Swedish islands and getting more aggressive in the tight corners of the Baltic Sea—even before Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the order for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Jack spent a week with the Swedish Navy chief and other military officials last fall in Stockholm to take a look under the hood of Sweden’s two-century transformation from neutrality to the soon-to-be new anchor of NATO’s Northern Flank.
Congressional chaos. If you haven’t been paying attention to what’s going on in Congress this week, count yourself lucky. Senate Republicans and Democrats spent weeks in grueling negotiations over a massive national security funding bill that combined funding for Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel, and the U.S. southern border, only for House Republicans to ax the compromise plan and Senate Republicans to back off the deal in an embarrassing about-face.
The Senate regrouped on Thursday and voted to advance the repackaged national security funding tranche (minus the southern border compromise) by a vote of 67 to 32, but it’s unclear how that will play out in the less-than-stable Republican-controlled House if it passes the Senate. In short, everything is unclear, and everyone in Congress is mad at each other even more than they were a few weeks ago—leading us back to (almost) square one before these negotiations started. All the while, Ukraine is running dry on U.S. military support, and Russia is making gains on the battlefield.
Snapshot
The Princess Olga Monument in Kyiv’s Mykhailivska Square is shown adorned with a ballistic vest with a patch that reads “She needs armor” on Feb. 7. STR/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Put On Your Radar
Thursday, Feb. 8: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken wraps up a three-day Middle East visit that has included stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Israel. Newly minted French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné is set to visit Israel and the West Bank. Also in Israel on a wartime solidarity visit: Argentine President Javier Milei.
Pakistan also held parliamentary elections today.
Friday, Feb. 9: Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are set to meet at the White House.
Sunday, Feb. 11: Finland holds a presidential election runoff between former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb and Pekka Haavisto.
Monday, Feb. 12: Putin is expected to visit Turkey.
Wednesday, Feb. 14: Indonesia holds presidential and legislative elections.
Quote of the Week
“Just wanted to say that however bad it looked in the Senate today it was worse.”
—U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz, in a post on X (formerly Twitter) after the Senate failed to pass the national security supplemental bill that included military aid for Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel and money to secure the U.S.-Mexico border
This Week’s Most Read
- How Primed for War Is China? by Michael Beckley and Hal Brands
- The Two-State Solution Is a Recipe for Carnage by Manlio Graziano
- The West Did Not Invent Decoupling—China Did by Agathe Demarais
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
Trending on TikTok. Ukrainian bakers in the port city of Odesa are making cakes decorated with images of the Kremlin that, when lit, burn over to reveal the face of the aforementioned Gen. Zaluzhnyi.