For two decades, Foreign Policy’s Keith Johnson writes, the Arctic has been the “perennial next great-power flash point.” But since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, experts fear that Arctic harmony has become even more precarious. As NATO has expanded northward, Russia has bulked up its military presence in the region, and Sino-Russian Arctic cooperation has deepened, predictions of a major clash have become—in Johnson’s words—“superheated.”
This edition of Flash Points seeks to untangle what’s really happening in the Arctic—a place that is warming at a rate four times greater than the global average, where issues of climate, shipping, energy, and security all converge. Below, you’ll find our recent deep dives on the region, from a reported portrait of NATO’s new “Arctic Sparta” to a feature taking you inside a Norwegian Coast Guard patrol ship.
Finnish officers (right) watch participants in the Jaeger Brigade’s winter combat course, seen in the distance, in Sodankyla, Finland, on Jan. 10.Andrea Prada Bianchi photos
A Temperature Check on NATO’s ‘Arctic Sparta’
The Finnish town of Ivalo now hosts the closest base to mainland Russia accessible to U.S. troops, Andrea Prada Bianchi writes.
Members of the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Polar Star work to remove ice from the ship’s deck while underway in the Chukchi Sea on Dec. 28, 2020. Petty Officer 1st Class Cynthia Oldham/U.S. Coast Guard
The Arctic Great Game Won’t Be Won in U.S. Shipyards
The High North is an arena of great-power competition, but Russia is the one with something to lose, FP’s Keith Johnson writes.
Joint forces take part in the Nordic Response 24 military exercise, part of the larger NATO exercise Steadfast Defender, near Sorstraumen, above the Arctic Circle in Norway, on March 10. Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP via Getty Images
NATO’s New Map
On NATO’s new map—with all of Scandinavia now in the alliance—everything has to be connected, FP’s Jack Detsch writes.
Crew members aboard the USCGC Stratton assist a law enforcement boarding team to prepare a 35-foot-long range interceptor ahead of a fisheries inspection while on patrol in the Bering Sea on Jan. 29. Kenneth R. Rosen photos for Foreign Policy
The End of American Exceptionalism in the High North
After years of inattention, the United States is playing catch-up where it once held significant sway, Kenneth R. Rosen writes.
Telecommunication domes are pictured on a mountaintop near Longyearbyen, in the Svalbard archipelago, on May 10, 2022. Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP via Getty Images
Arctic Harmony Is Falling Apart
An isolated Russia is turning to China for help in the north, FP’s Elisabeth Braw writes.