Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party ousts the opposition in three state elections, an Indian citizen named in a U.S. indictment for involvement in an assassination plot against a Sikh activist is transferred to U.S. jurisdiction, and the Taliban plan to reopen Afghanistan’s embassy in New Delhi.

India’s BJP Wins Key State Elections

India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stormed to victory in three big state elections on Sunday. It wrested power away from the Indian National Congress, the country’s main opposition party, in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, and it retained control of the government in Madhya Pradesh. Congress triumphed in a fourth state election in Telangana.

The BJP’s victories solidify its political dominance in what is known as the Hindi heartland—a populous region stretching across north and central India. Ten of the region’s states alone account for more than 40 percent of the seats in Parliament. The ruling party’s performance also deals a blow to Congress just as the opposition was picking up momentum to gear up for India’s national elections next spring.

A year ago, Congress defeated the BJP in the state of Himachal Pradesh, ending a run of 18 state election losses over four years; in May, it did it again in Karnataka. An emboldened Congress united with 27 other parties in July to form a new alliance that called itself INDIA (the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), a major development for a famously fractured opposition. Then India’s Supreme Court suspended a defamation conviction against Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, allowing him to return to politics.

Indian political experts attribute the BJP’s success over the weekend to multiple factors. The ruling party tapped into grievances about corruption, capitalized on anti-incumbent sentiment, fell back on popular Hindu nationalist themes, galvanized local communities, and exploited Congress’s weaknesses—such as party infighting.

The BJP also unleashed its most potent weapon: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The country’s most popular politician campaigned for BJP candidates across Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh, drawing massive crowds. Gandhi did the same for Congress, but with starkly different results, amplifying one of the Congress party’s fundamental problems: its inability to field a leader with Modi’s charisma and popularity.

The state election results may hurt Congress more than they help the BJP. Even without the three electoral victories, the BJP would be heavily favored to hold on to power in the national election. Congress, by contrast, must now do some soul-searching. Its momentum is lost, and its standing within the opposition alliance may come into question.

In the elections it lost, Congress chose to go it alone without any of its INDIA partners, which could lead to divisions that would have to be addressed for the alliance to have any chance of ousting Modi next year. On Tuesday, Congress reportedly postponed a meeting it had called for the alliance this week after leaders of other member parties said they wouldn’t attend.

There is another unsettling takeaway for Congress. The BJP’s performance not only made a rare third consecutive term more likely for Modi, but it also showcased the electoral clout of other top BJP leaders—especially Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, a Hindu nationalist firebrand and possible Modi successor. Adityanath was among a very small number of top BJP leaders who also campaigned for candidates across the three states the BJP won.

India joins Bangladesh and Pakistan in holding national elections during the first half of 2024, and there is a good chance that all three countries will return the incumbents to power. In Bangladesh, where the opposition is likely to boycott the election, and in Pakistan, where crackdowns on the opposition raise concerns about a level playing field, the outcome may not reflect the public will.

But in India, the BJP clearly enjoys extensive public support. Voters in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh are the latest data point, heaping more challenges on a chastened Congress and an increasingly vulnerable INDIA alliance.

What We’re Following

Indian suspect transferred to U.S. jurisdiction. The Indian Express has revealed more details about Nikhil Gupta, the Indian citizen accused of working with an Indian government official in a plot to assassinate a Sikh separatist on U.S. soil in an indictment unsealed last week. According to Express’s reporting, Gupta was transferred from a high-security prison in Prague—where he was arrested in June—to FBI custody days before the indictment became public.

It is unclear whether Gupta was moved to the United States or if he is being held at a U.S. facility elsewhere. Neither Washington nor New Delhi has said much publicly in the past week about the allegations. Indian officials say they will carry out their own investigation. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar affirmed the strength of U.S.-India relations despite political change, likely a reference to the relationship’s ability to bounce back from past challenges.

Indeed, there are no indications that the indictment has affected bilateral engagements. On Monday, U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Jonathan Finer met his counterpart, Vikram Misri, in New Delhi to discuss technology cooperation. All eyes will soon turn to an invitation for U.S. President Joe Biden to serve as the chief guest at India’s Republic Day festivities next month, which would be a major boost for U.S.-India ties.

There is a chance that Biden’s State of the Union address, which typically comes in January, could prompt the president to decline the invitation for scheduling reasons.

Taliban to reopen New Delhi embassy. On Wednesday, the Taliban’s senior deputy foreign minister, Shir Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, said that the Afghan Embassy will soon reopen in New Delhi. Afghan diplomats loyal to the regime that the Taliban ousted were running the embassy until early last month, when they announced they would shutter it, citing a lack of support from the Indian government.

This development completes a remarkable shift in India’s policy toward the Taliban. During the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, New Delhi viewed the Taliban, a close ally of Islamabad, as a hostile actor. But when the Taliban took power again in 2021, Indian officials soon held several meetings with regime representatives; New Delhi partially reopened its own embassy in Kabul last year.

Allowing the Taliban to run the Afghan Embassy in New Delhi brings India into a small group of countries—all in Afghanistan’s neighborhood—that are willing to engage with the regime in ways that fall short of outright recognition. New Delhi’s official reason for its policy shift is that it enables it to better pursue its own interests in Afghanistan, including overseeing its distribution of humanitarian assistance. It likely also wants to reduce Pakistan’s influence in the country and monitor potential terrorist threats against India.

Under the Radar

Pakistan is reportedly close to finalizing a free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which comprises Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. It would be the first trade and investment agreement that the GCC has concluded with any country in the last 15 years.

A framework agreement to explore a free trade agreement with Pakistan was signed in 2004, but negotiations were slow. In September, talks moved forward to the point that the only major obstacle related to processes for handling investment disputes—an issue that was reportedly worked out last weekend.

It’s striking that the momentum has come with a caretaker government in power in Islamabad—a reflection of the role of the country’s powerful military. Pakistani Army chief Asim Munir has held a series of meetings this year with senior officials from GCC countries, both in those countries and in Pakistan. This year, Pakistan also finalized an initiative intended to increase capital flows from the Persian Gulf, showing that it is trying to reenergize commercial ties.

If finalized, the free trade agreement would be significant. Pakistan’s economy badly needs support. The GCC countries have historically been generous commercial backers of Pakistan, but in recent years Islamabad has lost ground to India, which has scaled up ties with countries in the region, especially Saudi Arabia.

FP’s Most Read This Week

• What Ridley Scott’s ‘Napoleon’ Gets Wrong About War by Franz-Stefan Gady
• Henry Kissinger, Colossus on the World Stage by Michael Hirsh
• Chinese Hospitals Are Housing Another Deadly Outbreak by Annie Sparrow

Regional Voices

In the Hindustan Times, journalist Roshan Kishore offers advice to the Indian National Congress party. “It is not Indian democracy which is letting down the Congress, but the Congress leadership which is letting down the cause of democratic competition in what increasingly looks like a BJP-dominated polity in India,” he writes.

Columnist Arifa Noor argues in Dawn that security—the reason cited by Islamabad for its decision last month to expel refugees and undocumented immigrants—has not improved since the government implemented the policy. “The security situation in Pakistan continues to be of concern. And the decision to repatriate illegal migrants has done little to stem the tide,” she writes.

Writing in the Daily Star, scholar Md Main Uddin laments the woes of Bangladesh’s banking sector. “Commercial banks are supposed to provide small and short-term loans. Small loans can bring in many borrowers, which helps the bank construct a well-diversified portfolio. Short-term loans increase turnover that helps increase profit,” he writes. “But our banks do exactly the opposite within the legal framework.”