• Geopolitics
• Military
• Russia
• Ukraine

December 25, 2024, 6:00 AM View Comments ()

As the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion nears, all eyes are on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. He has promised to “end the war” in Ukraine and begun negotiating with European leaders even before assuming office. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to inch forward in eastern Ukraine, using brutal human-wave attacks that, in November, produced the highest number of Russian casualties since the start of the war.

As U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration comes to its end, looking back at its policies on Ukraine and Russia has become critical. After galvanizing initial support for Kyiv, Washington doled out military aid so sparingly—and with so many restrictions—that Ukraine was severely hampered in its fight. For three years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has dominated Western debates, instilling fear that his real or imaginary red lines must not be crossed.

As the push for a ceasefire in Ukraine accelerates, here are some of Foreign Policy’s best articles this year to fill you in on how we got to where we are in Russia’s war in Ukraine.

1. Why Ukraine Is Ready to Gamble on Trump

By Luke Coffey, Nov. 8

Whereas a second Trump term was once the biggest fear for Ukraine and its supporters, frustration with the Biden administration’s hesitant, go-slow approach is so high that Kyiv is willing to bet on the next White House.

“Long delays in providing key weapon systems, the illogical restrictions placed on those systems, and the slow drip of aid far short of what Biden had the legal authority to deliver have caused immense frustration among Ukrainians,” Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, writes.

2. Ukraine Is Now a Proxy War for Asian Powers

By Jeffrey Hornung, Nov. 18

The Russia-Ukraine war has gone global, setting a new precedent for Indo-Pacific countries to compete for their interests on the global stage. China, Japan, North Korea, and South Korea support their respective partners in a European war as part of a broader struggle over the future of the international order.

“Short of a mutually acceptable end to the war, changes in the degree of U.S. involvement under a second Trump administration will not alter the fundamental proxy war constellation,” Jeffrey Hornung writes. “All four East Asian powers are supporting a third party to undermine their competitor’s ability to undermine their national interests.”

3. What a Victorious Ukraine Can Offer Europe

By Michael Hikari Cecire, Dec. 12

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (center) speaks during a meeting with Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union, in Kyiv on Dec. 9.Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty Images

Much of Europe is so unprepared to fend for itself militarily that its best bet is a strong Ukraine as a bulwark between it and a Russia set on reclaiming its old empire, professor Michael Hikari Cecire writes.

“If residual U.S. military aid and additional European tranches can restore Ukrainian military momentum, or at least significantly sap Russia’s, then Kyiv could enter ceasefire negotiations from an improved position and deter Russia over the longer term,” he argues.

4. Russia’s War Economy Is Hitting Its Limits

By Marc R. DeVore and Alexander Mertens, Nov. 14

With much of the debate focused on Ukraine’s ability to fend off Russian forces, Russia is widely assumed to have endless resources. Marc R. DeVore and Alexander Mertens take a closer look at Russia’s growing struggles to keep its military supplied.

“We do not know when Russia will hit the end of the road with each equipment type. But there is little the Kremlin can do to stave off that day,” they write.

5. History Shows Giving Land to Russia Won’t Bring Peace

By Kristi Raik, Aug. 31

A ceasefire in Ukraine is fraught with risks for the future. “There is absolutely nothing in Russian history or recent behavior that suggests Moscow could be expected to negotiate in good faith to reach a compromise,” Kristi Raik writes of past attempts to achieve peace with Russia.