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Through the twists and turns of the U.S. presidential race, immigration has remained one of voters’ top concerns. Former President Donald Trump has consistently made allegations about the supposed danger posed by migrants, including repeating a false claim that Haitians in Ohio were eating Americans’ pets. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign has touted the sharp drop in migrant encounters at the U.S. southern border in recent months as a sign of the White House’s control over the issue.
U.S. authorities’ encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border—when a migrant is apprehended by Border Patrol before they are generally expelled or allowed to enter asylum proceedings—fell from 249,741 in December 2023 to 58,038 in August. But while the White House has taken some unilateral steps to lower those numbers—such as a June presidential proclamation that severely restricted the ability to seek asylum at the border—Harris and U.S. President Joe Biden may owe just as much to countries such as Mexico and Panama.
In coordination with the United States, Mexico and Panama have constructed their own new barriers to northward migration in the last year. Those include a busing campaign to move migrants southward within Mexico, as well as fencing and deportation flights to tighten up the Panama-Colombia border. After Mexico stepped up the current campaign in January, U.S. border arrivals dropped by a whopping 50 percent in one month.
The chaotic discourse surrounding immigration in the United States obscures a broader story: The Western Hemisphere boasts an increasingly synchronous approach to managing migration. Through negotiations with Latin American countries, the Biden administration has helped develop a regional strategy that goes beyond enforcement to include steps such as creating new legal pathways for labor migration. The approach has won praise from organizations such as the Inter-American Development Bank and the U.N. Refugee Agency, even as migrant rights groups have also criticized some of its tactics.
At its core, the hemispheric strategy is straightforward, said its coordinator on the White House National Security Council, Marcela Escobari: “creating consequences for irregular migration—and for the smugglers preying on vulnerable migrants—while creating alternative lawful pathways.”
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Texas National Guard troops wait on the side of the river as asylum-seeking migrants cross the Rio Grande. - Texas National Guard troops wait on the side of the Rio Grande river as asylum-seeking migrants cross into the United States from Mexico in Eagle Pass, Texas, on Sept. 27, 2023.
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Venezuelan immigrant Louis Sanchez embraces his daughter Nilfa. - Venezuelan immigrant Louis Sanchez embraces his daughter Nilfa after his family crossed the Rio Grande from Mexico to Eagle Pass on Sept. 27, 2023. John Moore photos/Getty Images
Before the recent decline in migrant encounters at the U.S. southern border, authorities were wrestling with a record influx; encounters soared to more than 2 million in both 2022 and 2023.
This increase has multiple causes. More than 7 million people have fled Venezuela in the last decade. Most reside in Latin America, while others have ventured toward the United States. Cuba’s economic crisis, meanwhile, prompted its largest emigration wave in history between 2022 and 2023. People have also fled violence and poverty in countries such as Haiti and Ecuador. And some migrants reach the U.S. border from starting points beyond the Western Hemisphere, having flown to Latin America from countries such as India, China, and Afghanistan to trek northward.
Smugglers often play a major role in encouraging migrants. “They sell the route like it’s adventure tourism,” said Ronal Rodríguez, a migration expert at the University of Rosario in Bogotá. Thanks in part to organized crime groups that see migrants as a revenue stream, the Darién Gap—the dangerous jungle border between Colombia and Panama—went from being considered mostly unpassable to becoming a migrant highway since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Migrants wait to be transported from Bajo Chiquito to the migrants reception station in Lajas Blancas, Panama, on Aug. 23, 2021.Ivan Pisarenko/AFP via Getty Images
Historic migration flows have strained Latin American countries and their asylum and refugee systems for years. So governments started talking. In 2018, 11 Latin American countries gathered in Quito, Ecuador, to launch a series of negotiations on assisting Venezuelan migrants, pledging steps such as granting them legal status in host countries and connecting them with international aid.
Then, at the 2022 Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles, 19 Latin American and Caribbean countries along with Canada and the United States signed on to a U.S.-conceived pledge for multipronged migration cooperation that included boosting enforcement, expanding legal pathways for migration, and stabilizing migrant populations where they currently reside.
The LA Declaration was conceived to apply to migrants of all nationalities, but some of the clearest examples of how it works in practice pertain to Venezuelans.
Countries such as Mexico, Costa Rica, and Belize have introduced visa requirements for Venezuelan visitors since 2022—an example of an enforcement move meant to deter illegal migration. But since October 2022, some Venezuelans have been able to apply to fly into the United States under a temporary protection mechanism called humanitarian parole, a new legal pathway. To stabilize migrant populations, the United States helps fund aid for displaced Venezuelans living in Colombia to discourage further migration.
The fact that the talks for the LA Declaration included countries from Chile to Canada marked a new chapter in Western Hemisphere diplomacy, said Diego Chaves-González of the Migration Policy Institute. Smaller regional blocs such as the Caribbean Community and Mercosur had in the past mostly conducted migration negotiations internally; now, they are swapping strategies. “These bubbles, in terms of migration, have burst,” Chaves-González said.
Venezuelans cross the Simón Bolivar International Bridge from San Antonio del Táchira, Venezuela, to Cúcuta, Colombia, on July 25, 2017.Luis Acosta/AFP via Getty Images
As a broadly defined strategy, the LA Declaration includes signatories that sometimes disagree about the fine print. Latin American countries have occasionally chafed at U.S. demands for greater migration enforcement in the hemisphere.
Even after Colombia, Panama, and the United States announced a joint campaign to “end the illicit movement of people” through the Darién Gap in April 2023, Colombian President Gustavo Petro told the New York Times that it was not his goal to stop migration through the gap; he said he would not send “horses and whips” to address a problem that Colombia did not create and instead blamed U.S. sanctions on Venezuela for exacerbating the issue. (The campaign ended after two months with little change on the ground.)
Even so, Petro has gone along with other tenets of the LA Declaration, such as allowing the U.S. government to screen certain migrants in Colombia for refugee resettlement and refer them to information about other lawful routes via a program called the Safe Mobility Initiative.
The declaration’s goal of adding legal pathways has earned especially strong enthusiasm among Latin American governments. It has also allowed for a conceptual innovation, Chaves-González said: connecting migration management with countries’ labor market needs.
“Today, the labor force of the United States would be rapidly shrinking without immigration,” said George Mason University economist Michael Clemens, who advised the Biden administration on migration policy between 2021 and 2023. In Mexico, some of the country’s largest employers are cooperating to recruit migrants and refugees to fill their workforce needs. And in Colombia, migration was in large part responsible for saving the country’s coffee and flower industries over the last five years, Chaves-González said.
Venezuelan migrants wait to receive their temporary permits to live and work in Colombia during a one-week campaign of massive delivery of Temporary Protection Permits in Bogotá on Jan. 25, 2022.Guillermo Legaria Schweizer/Getty Images
Voters often don’t realize migrants’ positive impact on host economies, Clemens said, because of incorrect measurement and false stereotypes. For a more complete accounting, he pointed to a July Congressional Budget Office estimate that the U.S. immigration surge since 2021—composed of groups such as asylum-seekers, undocumented people, and those admitted through executive parole—will add some $9 trillion to the economy over the next decade.
Eyeing not only humanitarian principles but also economic benefits, the Biden administration has paroled some 530,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans into the United States since 2022. Washington also worked with Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador to grow the number of temporary H-2 work visas issued to their citizens, from 9,800 in 2021 to around 27,000 in 2023.
Mexico, meanwhile, has issued work authorization to more than 17,500 asylum-seekers since 2022 and created an online platform to connect migrants with jobs. A nascent U.S. program called Labor Neighbors also aims to build a matching system between workers and jobs throughout the hemisphere, U.S. Homeland Security Advisor Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall said on Sept. 17.
Mexico has been an especially vocal advocate for new legal pathways. In a high-stakes December 2023 meeting where U.S. officials requested Mexican help stopping migrants moving northward, Mexican officials pushed for increased legal migration routes, they later wrote.
“Where we have to place our bet,” then-Mexican Foreign Secretary Alicia Bárcena said in June, “is on regular pathways for labor migration.”
A view of the Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection ministerial meeting held in Guatemala City on May 7.Edwin Bercian/AFP via Getty Images
The LA Declaration has gained praise inside and outside the Western Hemisphere. U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi hailed a “growing convergence of views” in the hemisphere on migration, while the Danish and Swiss governments have funded research discussing whether the Safe Mobility Initiative could be replicated in Europe. “The current U.S. government has sought to create a positive agenda with the region when it comes to managing these [migrant] flows that are somewhat inevitable,” Brazilian diplomat Carlos Márcio Cozendey said.
Despite those accolades, some migration and human rights experts have also criticized actions taken under the scope of the declaration, which they say chip away at the international right to asylum.
Hemispheric actions since 2022 have in practice included more steps to restrict migration pathways than to create new ones, the University of Rosario’s Rodríguez said. New legal pathways often have strict cutoff dates, nationality requirements, fees, and documentation needs. Biden’s June proclamation was transparent about its intent to make it harder to claim asylum at the U.S. border, broadly restricting migrants’ eligibility for the second time in just over a year.
“With the Los Angeles Declaration, a lot of countries that had a policy of migrant reception are assuming the U.S. posture of migrant containment,” Rodríguez said. Chile, for example, announced “supposed pathways for formal migration, but people in humanitarian need can’t fulfill the requirements because they lack documents like passports,” he added.
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Biden administration officials have pushed back against criticism of Washington’s border tightening. The U.S. asylum system “is not built for a higher volume of people” and the way it was being used by migrants was “destabilizing,” Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said in September.
Strains on asylum systems across the world have led policymakers to increasingly bypass them in favor of other methods for handling protection-seeking migrants, Migration Policy Institute researchers noted in a July report. That includes the Biden administration’s use of humanitarian parole for certain Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans who might have otherwise tried to seek asylum at the border. The researchers argued for shifting “the focus of protection responses away from an exclusive reliance on territorial asylum and toward a diversified set of policy tools.”
While the U.N. Refugee Agency has encouraged the United States’ and its neighbors’ efforts “to develop a comprehensive response to forced displacement in the hemisphere,” it has also “expressed concern about measures that introduced restrictions on the right to seek asylum, potentially leaving many individuals in need of international protection without viable means to reach safety and at risk of being returned to danger,” a spokesperson said in a statement.
A supporter of Donald Trump protests in front of a school in Coney Island, New York, that had recently begun housing asylum-seekers on May 16, 2023. Spencer Platt/Getty Images
As the U.S. election approaches, the biggest question around regional migration cooperation is how much would survive a potential Trump presidency. Trump has remained neck and neck with Harris in polls as he pledges to carry out mass deportations, “suspend refugee resettlement,” and scrap an app that the Biden administration developed to allow some migrants to register for asylum screenings.
If Trump carries out an anti-migrant crackdown, “I do not think Mr. Trump is going to care, frankly, whether Latin American and Caribbean countries—or anybody else sending refugees and irregular migration—may be upset about this,” said Ronald Sanders, Antigua and Barbuda’s ambassador to the United States and the Organization of American States.
While Trump could deal a heavy blow to the current approach, much too depends on other countries in the Western Hemisphere. It was during Trump’s presidency that countries such as Colombia and Brazil started to lead cooperation on hosting displaced Venezuelans despite the White House’s relative lack of engagement on the issue.
Venezuelan refugees board a Brazilian Air Force plane, heading to Manaus and São Paulo, at Boa Vista Airport in northern Brazil on May 4, 2018.Evaristo Sa/AFP via Getty Images
In 2018, Colombia granted regular status to nearly half a million Venezuelans, kicking off a wave of similar measures in other South American countries. The same year, Brazil launched a program to connect Venezuelan migrants with jobs that has since transferred more than 100,000 people from border areas. With help from both the government and private sector, Cozendey, the Brazilian diplomat, said Venezuelans “are absorbed around the country without turning into a problem.” The program has survived center-right, far-right, and left-wing governments.
Late last month in New York City, LA Declaration countries announced the creation of a new technical secretariat to ensure their work continues into the future. Colombia was appointed the group’s rotating chair for 2025.
“We have very important progress” in joint responses to migration, Colombian Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo said. “But still we have a lot of challenges.”