• NATO
• Ukraine

February 12, 2025, 3:58 PM View Comments ()

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at the United States stepping back from NATO’s role in Ukraine, Israel preparing to renew its war in Gaza, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi flying to Washington.

Is Europe on Its Own?

The Trump administration delivered a stark message to NATO allies on Wednesday during U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s first trip to Brussels in his new role: U.S. troops will not participate in any future peacekeeping missions in Ukraine; NATO’s Article 5 protections of mutual defense should not apply to any European forces sent to Ukraine for a postwar settlement; and Kyiv should not expect to become a member of NATO.

“Europe must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine,” Hegseth said during his opening remarks to the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, adding that the strategic threat that China poses means that the United States cannot be “primarily focused on the security of Europe.” Instead, Hegseth urged NATO members to increase their required defense spending from 2 percent to 5 percent of their GDP.

Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refuses to rule out the need for U.S. security guarantees. “Security guarantees without America are not real security guarantees,” he told the Guardian on Tuesday. Zelensky has suggested that he can persuade Trump to reconsider his position if Kyiv offers U.S. companies lucrative reconstruction contracts. These may include access to natural resources, as Trump demanded on Monday that Ukraine grant the United States access to $500 billion in rare earth metals in exchange for U.S. support. On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Zelensky in Kyiv to discuss such a deal.

Hegseth also told senior NATO and Ukrainian officials that Kyiv must be prepared to make substantial concessions over its Russian-occupied territory. “We want, like you, a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine,” Hegseth said. “But,” he added, “we must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective” that “will only prolong the war and cause more suffering.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly rejected conceding any Ukrainian land to Moscow.

Hegseth’s statements came shortly before U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had held their first publicized phone call on Wednesday. According to a summary of the call that Trump posted on Truth Social, he and Putin “agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately” on ending the war in Ukraine. Trump followed that conversation with a call to Zelensky in which the two leaders “talked about opportunities to achieve peace” and “agreed to maintain further contact and plan upcoming meetings,” Zelensky wrote on X.

Hegseth will meet with fellow NATO defense ministers on Thursday to debate Ukraine’s security needs while U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance prepares to meet with Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference on Friday. Make sure to subscribe to FP’s Situation Report for on-the-ground reporting from the event.

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What We’re Following

Renewing war. The Israeli military called up its reservists on Wednesday ahead of a looming breakdown in the Gaza cease-fire deal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with Trump’s backing, has vowed to resume fighting if Hamas fails to release the rest of its hostages by noon on Saturday. The militant group accused Israel on Monday of defying the truce deal and announced that it would indefinitely delay the captives’ release until Israel reverses course.

“If Hamas stops the hostage releases, then there is no cease-fire and there is war,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reiterated on Wednesday, adding to Trump’s warning the day before that “all hell is going to break out” if Hamas does not adhere to the deadline.

Such threats come as Gaza’s future grows more uncertain. Trump met with Jordanian King Abdullah II on Tuesday to discuss a U.S. proposal to displace Gaza’s entire population. Abdullah reaffirmed Amman’s “steadfast position” against the plan and said Arab leaders were working to come up with an alternative proposal to address the crisis.

Egypt’s foreign ministry said late Tuesday that it plans to present a “comprehensive vision” for Gaza’s reconstruction that does not include displacing Palestinians; Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has postponed his planned trip to Washington next week over Trump’s comments threatening to cut off aid to Jordan and Egypt if they don’t agree to his proposal.

Modi comes to Washington. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi kicked off a visit to the Beltway on Wednesday with what appeared to be one goal in mind: avoiding a trade war with the United States. Trade between the two countries has grown in recent years, but Washington’s trade deficit with New Delhi remains high, at $45.6 billion in 2024.

On Monday, the White House imposed sweeping 25 percent tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from all countries. Trump also promised to issue reciprocal duties on countries that have tariffs on U.S. goods. Modi hopes to avoid India becoming the target of such economic warfare during his talk with Trump on Thursday, though White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday that reciprocal tariffs would be announced ahead of that meeting.

Modi’s priorities are not solely economic, though. The prime minister sees Trump as a like-minded ruler who could deepen U.S.-Indian cooperation in defense, technology, and energy. The two nations are also close allies in their efforts to curb China’s influence, and New Delhi is set to host a meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue later this year to discuss Beijing.

Upset over new president. Greek lawmakers named former parliamentary speaker Constantine Tassoulas as the country’s next president on Wednesday after three failed rounds of voting. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said in January that he chose Tassoulas for the largely ceremonial role due to his political experience and “unifying spirit.”

However, Tassoulas’s approval has sparked mass protests in recent weeks over what demonstrators argue was his failure to investigate a deadly train crash while he was parliamentary speaker in 2023. Fifty-seven people were killed when a passenger train carrying more than 350 people collided with a freight train in the Greek town of Tempi, sparking a judicial investigation that is still ongoing. The crash was Greece’s worst railway disaster in its history.

Odds and Ends

Along with the 12 other Canadian provincial and territorial premiers, Ontario Premier Doug Ford traveled to the White House on Wednesday to challenge Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canadian imports as well as his statements that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state. While Ford is facing quite a bit of pushback in the Beltway, he’s got mile-high approval back home. Last Wednesday, Ontario pilot Michael Jones took his plane on a two-hour excursion over the province that drew a massive maple leaf in the air. “I’m not really happy with what’s happening across the border right now,” Jones said. “I just wanted to show that we don’t like to be pushed around and we’re all proud Canadians.”