Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Guatemala’s upcoming general election, Russia’s Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s provocative statements, Ukraine’s battlefield wins, and Zambia’s debt restructuring deal.

On Sunday, around 9.2 million eligible voters in Guatemala will cast their ballots for president, Congress, local positions, and 20 seats in the Central American Parliament. Officially, 22 individuals are presidential contenders. However, in reality, only three predetermined candidates are in the running; the country’s congressionally chosen electoral court has disqualified any serious candidate who could challenge the status quo, which favors the country’s political and business elites. “These elections are a trial by fire to see if we can continue to call Guatemala a democracy,” Juan Pappier, deputy director for the Americas at Human Rights Watch, told Al Jazeera.

Leading in the polls at 21.3 percent is the National Unity of Hope party’s Sandra Torres, a former first lady who hopes to expand social welfare programs, such as cash transfers to the poor. Torres was arrested in 2019 for violating campaign finance laws, but a judge dismissed her case in 2022—just in time for her to kick-start her presidential campaign. Following Torres at 13.4 percent is Edmond Mulet, a conservative former diplomat who wants to expand internet access, invest in education, and provide free medicines. But Mulet already has two strikes against him (both of which he’s denied): In the 1980s, he was involved in an illegal child adoption operation that took infants from their families and sent them abroad, and he has been accused of persecuting journalists and prosecutors. In third place sits Zury Ríos of the Valor party. You may recognize her as the daughter of former Guatemalan dictator Efraín Ríos Montt, who was convicted of genocide in 2013. Apart from promoting tough-on-crime policies and blunting anti-corruption initiatives, Ríos is known for denying that Guatemala’s genocide ever happened.

Under Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei, other leading opposition candidates have been barred from the race. Giammattei himself cannot run for reelection under constitutional law. However, FP’s Catherine Osborn writes in Latin America Brief that “the entrenched financial and political elites that Giammattei represents extend far beyond his party, and that their influence on institutions like the courts appears to be neutralizing any true threats to the political status quo.” Until a month ago, businessman Carlos Pineda was leading the polls. But the country’s electoral court suspended his run following political accusations that his party violated procedures. Other barred candidates include Thelma Cabrera, a leftist Mayan Mam focused on enhancing Indigenous rights, and Roberto Arzú, a right-wing politician who hopes to take down the current establishment.

In Guatemala’s system, a candidate must secure a simple majority to win; otherwise, the top two candidates will hold a runoff, scheduled for Aug. 20—which is what polls currently predict will happen. But no matter who wins, Osborn notes, the electoral court’s legal tactics to veto legitimate candidates has already resulted in a vote that “lacks electoral integrity.”

• Aid Is the Next Battleground Between China and the West by Agathe Demarais
• Washington’s Perennial India Fantasy by Howard W. French
• BRICS Faces a Reckoning by Oliver Stuenkel

Russia’s Prigozhin lashes out. In late-breaking news on Friday, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of Russia’s paramilitary Wagner Group, issued a series of audio messages in which he claimed Russian troops had targeted Wagner forces with missile strikes and seemed to declare that his forces would seek some sort of retaliation against Russia’s military leaders. “Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: The evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped,” he said. “Those who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: No one resist.” In a subsequent message, he added: “This is not a military coup, this is a march of justice. Our actions do not hinder the armed forces in any way.”

The flurry of statements came just hours after Prigozhin accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of having deceived top Kremlin officials when he launched Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine last February. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said late Friday that Putin was “aware of the situation unfolding around Prigozhin” and that “all necessary measures are being taken,” though he didn’t specify what those measures were. Russia’s Federal Security Service also announced it was opening a criminal investigation into Prigozhin’s actions.

Two steps forward, one step back. The Ukrainian counteroffensive is proceeding, if slowly. Kyiv’s armed forces stopped Russian troops from seizing the eastern cities of Kupiansk and Lyman on Friday. And to the south, Ukraine successfully advanced its troops despite deadly minefields in the area, its deputy defense minister said. However, Ukrainian officials recognize the largest battles are yet to come as Russian forces continue to hold most of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

In Kherson, at least three Ukrainian municipal workers were killed by Russian shelling. The port city was still reeling from a June 6 attack on Ukraine’s Kakhovka dam, which flooded the area and destroyed thousands of homes and key infrastructure. Evidence unveiled this week suggests Moscow was responsible for the devastating explosion, which was deemed a war crime under international law. “Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said of the slow progress. “It’s not.”

Zambia’s big “I owe you.” Thanks to a breakthrough deal, Zambia is finally getting a financial break. The southern African nation struck a deal on Friday to restructure the $6.3 billion it owes to foreign governments. Now, Zambia will have 20 years to pay off its debts, including a three-year period where only payments on interest are due. The International Monetary Fund will also provide Zambia with $188 million as part of a $1.3 billion aid package agreed to in September 2022. The debt restructuring framework, backed by the G-20, is a test for other countries caught in a spiral of poor finances following the COVID-19 pandemic.

In 2020, Zambia became the first African country to default on its loans. Its largest creditor is China, with $4.1 billion owed to its central bank. Under pressure from France, where the deal was struck, China agreed to stop holding up Zambia’s debt relief; French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping are both keen to establish stronger economic ties, seen during Macron’s visit to Beijing in April.

Indigenous water rights. The Navajo Nation faced a major setback on Thursday when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the U.S. federal government has no legal obligation to develop a plan to provide the tribe with adequate drinking water. The case centered on the Navajos’ request that the federal government consider the tribe’s water needs when divvying up access to the Colorado River, which today runs along the northwestern border of the nation’s reservation. In a 5-4 vote, the court ruled that an 1868 peace treaty between the United States and the Navajo Nation does not require Washington to take any “affirmative steps” to secure tribal water rights.

“The Navajo have waited patiently for someone, anyone, to help them, only to be told (repeatedly) that they have been standing in the wrong line and must try another,” Justice Neil Gorsuch wrote in his dissenting opinion. “Where do the Navajo go from here?”

The United Arab Emirates and which country reopened their respective embassies in each other’s capitals on Monday?

A. Qatar
B. Saudi Arabia
C. Iran
D. Libya

It’s always singles night in the Modi administration. Top Indian officials are the first to proudly proclaim their bachelor status as a sign that no other commitment comes between them and the nation. Even Prime Minister Narendra Modi went stag to the White House this week, especially after Indian voters signaled that they believe single politicians are less likely to practice corrupt behaviors. Talk about a work-life balance.

A. Qatar

Growing concerns over regional stability and security have prompted some Middle Eastern countries to mend previously tense ties. This has included allowing Syria back into the Arab League, Ellen Ioanes writes.

To take the rest of FP’s weekly international news quiz, click here or sign up to be alerted when a new one is published.