Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at the looming collapse of the French government, a terrorist attack in Jerusalem, and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s surprise resignation.
What Comes Next for Paris?
French Prime Minister François Bayrou lost a confidence vote on Monday by a vote of 194-364, plunging Paris into political turmoil and inciting new calls for snap elections. Bayrou is France’s fourth prime minister in less than two years and the second to be deposed in a no-confidence vote since 1962.
Bayrou called for the vote over pressure to address Paris’s burgeoning debt crisis. “You have the power to bring down the government, but you do not have the power to erase reality,” Bayrou warned lawmakers ahead of the vote on Monday. “Reality will remain relentless: Expenses will continue to rise, and the burden of debt, already unbearable, will grow heavier and more costly.”
Last year, France’s budget deficit reached 5.8 percent of GDP—nearly double the European Union’s 3 percent limit—and public debt hit an astounding 113.9 percent of GDP. Bayrou has proposed a series of controversial austerity measures, including cutting around 44 billion euros (about $51 billion) from next year’s budget, to address this.
But opposition lawmakers on the right and left (holding 330 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly) rallied together to undermine Bayrou’s government. “Today is a day of relief for millions of French people, of relief over your departure,” Mathilde Panot of the hard-left France Unbowed party said, with far-right leader Marine Le Pen adding: “This moment marks the end of the agony of a phantom government.”
Bayrou will submit his resignation on Tuesday as French President Emmanuel Macron decides what to do next. Macron has three options: appoint another prime minister and hope that the fifth time’s the charm; call for snap parliamentary elections, which he has repeatedly ruled out; or stand down himself, despite vowing to stay in power until the end of his term in 2027.
Polling from Ifop, Elabe, and Toluna Harris Interactive indicates that between 56 and 69 percent of French people want snap parliamentary elections. In comparison, a Verian Group opinion poll this month showed that just 15 percent of voters have confidence in Macron, down 6 percentage points since July.
France’s last snap elections resulted in a hung parliament, with the far-right National Rally winning the most votes, the country’s left-wing alliance securing the most seats overall, and Macron’s centrist coalition losing influence. “Our country has an urgent need for lucidity; it has the most urgent need for unity,” Bayrou said on Monday. “But it is division that threatens to prevail, that threatens its image and reputation.”
After the failures of a conservative and a centrist prime minister, some analysts expect Macron to choose a candidate from the center-left Socialists rather than call for snap elections or step down himself. Still, opposition parties could remain unenthused with whomever he chooses, and paralysis akin to the instability of 1958, when Paris’s Fifth Republic was established, is likely. Large anti-government demonstrations are expected across France on Wednesday, and mainstream labor unions plan to protest proposed budget cuts on Sept. 18.
Today’s Most Read
- The East-West Contest With No End by Michael Kimmage
- The Kremlin’s Factory of Resentment by Jaroslaw Kuisz
- Putin and Xi Have Different Plans to Live Forever by James Palmer
The World This Week
Tuesday, Sept. 9: The 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly begins.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosts NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
Polish President Karol Nawrocki visits Finland.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. concludes a three-day trip to Cambodia.
Wednesday, Sept. 10: Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro concludes a three-day trip to China.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog begins a two-day trip to London.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hosts Moldovan President Maia Sandu.
Thursday, Sept. 11: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosts Mauritian Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam in the Indian city of Varanasi.
Friday, Sept. 12: A verdict in the trial against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is expected.
Sunday, Sept. 14: Russia holds regional elections.
Monday, Sept. 15: Syria holds parliamentary elections.
What We’re Following
Jerusalem shooting. Two shooters opened fire at a bus stop in Jerusalem on Monday, killing at least six people and injuring more than 20 others. According to Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, the two gunmen were from the occupied West Bank and were killed on-site by an Israeli soldier and a civilian.
Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad praised the shooting, though neither group claimed responsibility, while the Israeli government called the incident a “terrorist attack.” Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas also condemned “any targeting of Palestinian and Israeli civilians.”
West Bank extremists have carried out several stabbing and shooting attacks on Israeli civilians since the war in Gaza broke out, and violent Israeli settler attacks on Palestinians have escalated. In November 2023, three Israelis were killed in a Jerusalem bus stop shooting, and in October 2024, seven people were killed in Tel Aviv.
In response to Monday’s shooting, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “We are now in pursuit, encircling the villages the murderers came from.” Israeli troops deployed on Monday to several areas on the outskirts of the West Bank city of Ramallah, where the assailants reportedly came from.
Replacing Ishiba. After less than a year in power, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced on Sunday his intention to leave office. His surprise resignation propels Japan into another political reckoning, forcing the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to hold an emergency leadership session on Monday to prepare bids for Ishiba’s successor. The LDP-led coalition, which recently lost its majority in both houses of parliament, plans to hold its vote on Oct. 4.
Several lawmakers are expected to push for Ishiba’s seat, including former Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi. “The LDP is facing its worst crisis since its founding,” Motegi said on Monday upon announcing his bid intentions. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, LDP veteran Sanae Takaichi, and Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi are also planning to run for the premiership.
The LDP has ruled modern Japan for all but five of the past 70 years. However, rising xenophobia, an ongoing rice shortage, and a finance scandal have damaged the ruling party’s reputation and injected uncertainty into Japanese politics. Instead, young people are increasingly turning to far-right movements; two newer conservative parties were the biggest winners in Japan’s recent upper house election.
Polarized votes. The party of Argentine President Javier Milei suffered a sweeping defeat in Buenos Aires’s provincial election on Sunday. Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party secured just 34 percent of the vote compared with the left-leaning Peronist opposition’s 47 percent, signaling a likely turbulent future for Milei’s libertarian government, which faces midterm elections late next month.
“We suffered a setback, and we must accept it responsibly,” Milei told his supporters on Sunday. “If we’ve made political mistakes, we’re going to internalize them, we’re going to process them, we’re going to modify our actions.” At the same time, though, Milei vowed not to backtrack on his economic overhaul, including austerity measures that have caused high unemployment, fiscal slowdowns, and surging poverty rates.
Meanwhile, Norway held parliamentary elections on Monday that could spell trouble for the country’s minority Labour-led government. Although initial polling shows the center left securing a narrow victory, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store is keeping a close eye on the rise of far-right populism in the country, as issues concerning cost of living, wealth taxes, U.S. President Donald Trump, and investment in Israel have dominated debate.
Odds and Ends
Czech police put pedal to the metal this weekend to finally catch a long-illusive speedster. The unidentified driver of a Formula 1-style red racing car has eluded local authorities since 2019. But on Sunday, police managed to track the vehicle from a gas station outside Prague to the driver’s home in the village of Buk, where he was taken in for questioning. Formula 1 cars are not allowed on Czech roads, as they have sharp edges and do not have lights, turning signals, license plates, or other vital safety features.