More than a dozen European countries have suspended asylum applications of Syrian nationals since Islamist rebels ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and took over Damascus. The European Union indicated it could start lifting sanctions and was waiting to see how the country’s new rulers—led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al Qaeda affiliate—act in power.
Despite the group’s calls for coexistence, however, reports have suggested that Syrian minorities—including Kurds, Alawites, and Christians—are still afraid they may be treated as religious enemies or regime collaborators. The Washington Post has verified several cases of revenge killings of minorities scattered across Syria.
William Spindler, spokesperson for the United Nations’ refugee agency (UNHCR), said that the pause on processing asylum requests directly affects more than 100,000 Syrians living in Europe and possibly even more inside Syria who may now seek protection. But the debate in Europe has already moved to whether most Syrians, including those with refugee status, should be encouraged or even compelled to leave en masse.
There is a quiet sense among analysts and activists that the fate of both the Syrians waiting on their asylum applications and the more than 1.2 million Syrians in Europe now hangs in balance.
Austrian Interior Minister Gerhard Karner has already asked his ministry to prepare a program of “orderly return and deportation,” but the debate is fiercest in Germany, which is home to nearly a million Syrians and where federal elections will take place on Feb. 23.
Shortly after Germany’s Foreign Minister visited Damascus and met Syria’s De Facto leader Ahmad al Sharra, the country’s interior minister, Nancy Frasear, said protection status of some Syrians may be revoked and that they may be deported.
“As our law stipulates, the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) will review and revoke protection grants if people no longer need this protection in Germany because the situation in Syria has stabilized,” she told a German media group. “This will then apply to those who do not have a right of residence for other reasons such as work or training and who do not return to Syria voluntarily,” she added.”
Jens Spahn, a politician with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), proposed having the state pay 1,000 euros (around $1,031) to Syrian immigrants who volunteered to move back to Syria.
Alexander Dobrindt, a politician with the Christian Social Union (CSU), said it was “essential that the question of migration and repatriation be connected to any possible development aid,” implying financial assistance to rebuild the country should only be offered in exchange for guarantees on Syrians’ return.
Such comments have rattled the Syrian community, which is believed to be reasonably well integrated by civil society actors. Approximately 226,600 Syrians have jobs and pay into social security, while around 279,600 are registered as job seekers. Most are seen as relatively well-qualified when compared to other refugee groups.
Yusuf, Mohammad, and Issa were sipping tea at Hayati, a Syrian restaurant in Weimar, Germany, on Dec. 25 while waiting for their shawarma order. They all wanted to return to Syria—but only to visit, not to resettle.
Issa, a student, said he was from Deir ez-Zor, which is under the control of U.S.-backed and predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and was worried about tensions between the SDF and Turkey-backed Syrian rebels. “Anything can happen. It is still unsafe,” he said in German. Mohammad, employed as a barber at a hairdresser’s shop in Mecklenburg, said that he wants to continue working and living in Germany and would only want to return to Syria to visit family.
Activists said Syrians in Germany have invested too much into rebuilding their lives there to suddenly abandon it all. They believe that while many Syrians may want to leave, more would prefer to stay and rebuild Syria with the money they earn inside Europe.
Karl Kopp, a social scientist who has been campaigning for the rights of refugees and migrants at Pro Asyl, said that most Syrians in Europe will remain in Europe, especially those with jobs and an income or children in schools. “The elderly may want to return to spend their last years back in their home country,” he said.
It is “silly,” Kopp said, “to disintegrate” Syrians, particularly when they are needed to fill the gaps in the aging continent’s labor market. Nearly 200,000 jobs need to be filled in Germany’s nursing sector alone.
Moreover, several activists told Foreign Policy that deporting people with protected status will prove to be a legal minefield since various national, regional, and international laws offer overlapping protections.
Any forced deportations would violate the non-refoulement principle in the 1951 Geneva convention, while even the right to subsidiary protection—a lower status offered to those at risk of serious harm in their origin country but didn’t qualify for refugee status—is protected under the EU human rights charter.
“Most Syrians in Germany have a protected status. But let’s talk about how the hardliners would like it,” Kopp said. “They would say that we keep the well-integrated Syrians. But others who are criminals, or live on social aid, this group needs to return.” Most political parties in Germany agree that immigrants with a criminal background must be returned while the CDU, which is expected to lead in the polls in February and form the next German government, has offered to entirely abolish subsidiary protection.
There is a common belief that with Assad and his regime gone, the reasons to seek or offer protection have ceased. The Syrian government under Assad was accused of human rights abuses, such as torture in prisons and executions—a common reason to seek asylum. “When the reason to flee no longer exists, a return must be possible,” Dobrindt said.
German and international law make room for revocation of protected status.
Germany’s Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) said that it is legally required to revoke the recognition of asylum “if the persecution situation has permanently changed or become inapplicable and those concerned would no longer face danger should they return,” among other conditions, such as “if the foreigner has become a criminal offender.”
The 1951 Geneva convention ceases to apply if a person has “re-availed himself of the protection of the country of his nationality,” acquired another nationality, or has “voluntarily re-established himself in the country which he left or outside which he remained owing to fear of persecution.” It also states that it shall cease to apply to a person if “the circumstances in connection with which he has been recognized as a refugee have ceased to exist,” such as the threat from Assad and his government.
Some activists said that Syrians who gained asylum to escape persecution from Assad or his government could face a tougher court battle if political parties decide to send them back. Others said the revocation clause is applicable if there was a long-standing change in the security situation—not just relief from Assad and his nefarious intelligence apparatus, but also an assurance that there was not fear of other human rights violations.
Wiebke Judith, legal spokesperson for Pro Asyl, said that even if one status comes for revocation, the BAMF or the court judges will have to consider if another protection status applies. “Such as the national ban on deportation, which mirrors Article 3 of the European Convention [on] Human Rights,” Judith said. “This article prohibits any deportations if there is a risk of torture or inhuman or degrading treatment. This includes destitution, as well, which could be a risk looking at the dire humanitarian situation in Syria.” Moreover, German law offers immigrants a legal path to contest deportation.
Taking a more pragmatic view, however, Judith recommended Syrians in Germany without a permanent residence permit look for different options that allow them to stay, “such as stay based on work, the EU blue card, any non-humanitarian stay that allows them to stay and eventually get a permanent residency if that is what they want.”
Activists said that instead of deporting Syrians—a decision that will overwhelm the judicial system—European countries must enable the return of those who wish to leave and retain others as human capital.
Gérard Sadik, the head of asylum issues at La Cimade, said that European countries must first allow Syrians to go home and check the conditions there without the threat of lifting their protected status.
“The problem is that Syrians may lose their refugee status even if they go to Syria just to see whether the conditions are feasible for returns,” Sadik said. “Let them go and see if they can return, let them see if their houses are still standing.”