• Geopolitics
• United States

July 17, 2025, 12:02 PM View Comments ()

It may be the right moment for Ukraine’s Western allies to lobby Donald Trump.

It’s no secret that the U.S. president is frustrated with Vladimir Putin. Despite previous friendliness, Trump has lashed out at his Russian counterpart multiple times in recent weeks, most notably after Putin offered to help the U.S. with the situation in Iran: “He said, can I help you with Iran? I said, ‘No, I don’t need help with Iran. I need help with you.’”

Meanwhile, Trump’s relationship with Ukraine has come a long way since the public hostility of the Oval Office meeting in February. Last week, Trump not only approved sending more weapons to Kyiv but heaped praise on Ukraine’s bravery while accusing Putin of “killing a lot of people” and “not treating human beings right.” This week, he hemmed and hawed on giving Ukraine more offensive weapons but seemed far more willing to entertain the idea than in the past.

Of course, for those who wanted America to keep supporting Ukraine from day one of the Trump presidency, this realization has come a little late in the day. But there may be a window of opportunity to capitalize on an ever-changing Trump’s latent admiration for Ukraine and horror at the brutality of Russia, especially after a relatively successful conference with NATO.

If Trump is becoming sold on the arguments for supporting Ukraine, now could be a good time to catch him in a pincer movement and lay out what America stands to lose if Ukraine falls.

The key arguments that figures such as Trump’s vice president make against arming Ukraine can be boiled down to: It’s not in our interest, it’s not our war, it’s too expensive, and it destroys our relationship with Russia.

Pro-Ukrainians in Trump’s inner circle, as well as his NATO allies, can easily debunk these points and should make clear exactly what is at stake for America if Russia either wins the war or ends up controlling parts of Ukraine.

The first argument should be that an emboldened Russia will almost certainly not stop with Ukraine. Putin made clear his ambition to rebuild Russia’s influence in the world back in 1999.

Experts and officials have repeatedly warned that one of Putin’s key objectives is to strengthen Russia economically and militarily to the point that it can be more of a geopolitical rival to the U.S.

“For Russia, the United States is still the primary global adversary—which is why the more self-destructive policies of the Trump administration are greeted with such glee in Moscow,” said Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the Chatham House think tank and leading Russia expert.

“Abandoning Ukraine to Russia—together with its human and mineral resources, its pivotal position in southeastern Europe, and its burgeoning defense industry—will needlessly strengthen an enemy of the United States. The immediate threat is to Europe, but the longer-term one to U.S. power is no less significant.”

How might that threat play out?

One immediate concern would be, as Giles said, Russia suddenly having control of Ukraine’s natural resources, world-class weapons industry, agricultural sector, energy production, and, of course, vast land mass.

This emboldened Russia would be in a position to heap economic pressure on European governments, pushing them to make pro-Russia policy decisions as it has with gas for decades.

Controlling supply chains of critical minerals, food, energy, or weapons would not only increase Russia’s influence within Europe but would directly challenge America’s authority in a strategically critical region. And if the United States does withdraw from the continent, it would leave Europeans with little incentive to choose America over Russia.

Furthermore, if Putin achieves his objectives in Ukraine, Russian resources will be freed up for wider campaigns against Europe. The Kremlin would likely turn its attention to hybrid campaigns, including cyberattacks, disinformation, and election interference.

Europe is already swamped with pro-Russian disinformation. The Kremlin has not been subtle in its attempts to influence European voters, in the hope that they install more pro-Russia governments.

That would, in time, be a strategic headache for America. “Even if you take the view that America is the only real power in NATO, our European allies provide us with bases and intelligence that make operating in other parts of the world easier,” said a U.S. diplomatic source. “There is no way we could replicate that.”

The other parts of the world this source is talking about include the Middle East, where America is becoming increasingly more involved in conflicts. The strategic advantage of European bases is something that America should not be walking away from at this moment.

Europeans are arguably more receptive than ever to placating American foreign policy, as evidenced by NATO allies agreeing to meet Trump’s ambitious defense spending target of 5 percent of GDP. For all the talk of Europe finally taking care of its own security given the threat from Moscow, officials admit that part of their sudden awakening is to keep America engaged in the region. In short: There has never been a better time for an American president to put their own stamp on the trans-Atlantic alliance.

The fall of Ukraine, in contrast, would taint Trump’s image forever. Anyone who doubts the scale of Putin’s ambitions might do well to listen to the words of Gabrielius Landsbergis, who from 2020 to 2024 was the foreign minister of Lithuania, a Baltic state that knows all about Russian aggression:

“Putin is betting against the West not doing anything. If he is successful in Ukraine, he will go further. We made the mistake of thinking he wouldn’t go fully into Ukraine, that it was too much of a gamble. But every time he does something and we don’t move our finger, his ambition will grow.”

Trump can make an impact if he acts now. Russia is slowly winning the war, but it’s not making the gains Putin had hoped. Ukraine can continue resisting if America keeps supplying weapons and support. If Trump is genuinely becoming more convinced that Ukraine and Europe are America’s friends, not Putin, now is the time to push for support that could resolve this conflict on terms that would benefit Washington and Kyiv alike.