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Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy
22 Jun 2023


NextImg:Biden Gives India a Bear Hug

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep! Jack and Robbie here. Happy NDAA markup week to all who celebrate. (Sending our condolences to the congressional beat reporters.) And back by popular demand this week is FP’s tech reporter, Rishi Iyengar, who has been keeping an eye on India’s major publicity push in Washington.

Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: The U.S. looks to upgrade India defense ties with Modi’s visit, more on that NDAA markup marathon, fallout from Blinken’s big China trip, and more.


Love From the Bottom of Our Indo-Pacific Heart-nership

Love is in the air in Washington this week, as the Biden administration readies to shower Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with all the adulation of a superpower anxious to court India to counter a rival.

Don’t talk too much about that rival superpower, though. Current and former U.S. officials who spoke to SitRep suggested they are keen to downplay the C-word (shh, but it’s “China”) in conversations around Modi’s visit, given the nonaligned DNA in India’s foreign policy.

“I know that people love to make everything about China, but I think we’re talking about two of the world’s largest, most innovative democracies,” a senior defense official said in an interview this week. “And there is no way that you look at a stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific without a really strong U.S.-India partnership, and so we have an interest in fostering that relationship that really stands on its own merits.”

Would you like a side of missiles with your entree? While in Washington, Modi will be addressing a joint session of Congress and attend his first state dinner at the White House on Thursday evening.

State dinners are nice and all, but what better way to demonstrate your love to a partner? Turns out it’s weapons. Lots and lots of weapons.

Modi’s D.C. visit sealed a deal for GE Aerospace and India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited to potentially jointly produce GE engines for India’s indigenous fighter jets in Indian factories—a rare tech transfer for a non-treaty ally. A widely anticipated deal for more than two dozen drones made by San Diego-based General Atomics could also be made official, and the India-U.S. defense accelerator ecosystem (INDUS-X, for fans of catchy acronyms) that was launched on Wednesday aims to bring together startups whose technologies could potentially serve both militaries.

These deals are a big deal. These types of deals carry special significance given how reliant India had been historically on Russian weapons systems, and also given how insanely difficult it is to crack into India’s immensely complex and arcane defense industry and procurement scene.

“The relationship makes imminent sense,” Frank Kendall, the secretary of the U.S. Air Force, said at a Wednesday event launching INDUS-X attended by SitRep. “The progress we have made in putting basic agreements in place has put us in a good position to move forward, and I think growth is what we should be looking for now.”

Take that, Putin. India has a long history of getting its planes and guns from Russia, which, according to multiple estimates, still accounts for about half of New Delhi’s military capabilities. While that may not be undone quickly—or completely—the Russian army’s protracted struggle in Ukraine has made spare parts harder to come by, and India’s ongoing quest to hedge its military manufacturing bets (see: France) gives Washington an opening.

“Obviously, India has a long-standing relationship with Russia,” the defense official said. “I think where we are encouraged is that we also see pretty consistent trends of diversification in terms of India’s procurement, and we think the trajectory of not just defense sales but co-production and co-development between the U.S. and India has been very positive. And we think right now is a moment in which there are particular opportunities to accelerate that.”

Trouble in partnership paradise. However, there are some big asterisks to this defense-heavy U.S.-India love fest. Many democracy and human rights advocates are worried about the health of India’s democracy and the dangerous flavor of authoritarianism that Modi seems to have ushered in. India’s free press and judiciary are under attack, and Modi’s main opponent, Rahul Gandhi, is disqualified from parliament. (Just as in cricket, India can’t quite equal Pakistan’s prowess at democratic suppression.) The targeting and harassment of India’s Muslim minority population has also stepped up significantly under Modi’s rule.

At least three progressive Democratic lawmakers—Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez—will boycott his address.

In short, to paraphrase Zaphod Beeblebrox, this visit will give Biden 10 points for his China strategy, but minus several million for his global democracy and human rights strategy. Whoever said foreign policy was easy?


Let’s Get Personnel

U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the Economist he is out of the running in the race to be the next NATO secretary-general. There’s furious speculation around that post as the current NATO chief, Jens Stoltenberg, said he wants to leave the job this year. Other contenders include Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, but the White House may ultimately push Stoltenberg to extend his term (again).

Alex Velez-Green has joined the Heritage Foundation think tank as senior advisor to the vice president for national security and foreign policy. He was previously national security advisor to Republican Sen. Josh Hawley.

Michael Kofman is set to join the Carnegie Endowment’s Russia and Eurasia Program as a senior fellow, leaving the Center for Naval Analyses.

Retired U.S. Air Force Gen. David Goldfein has joined the Washington-based consulting firm WestExec Advisors as a principal.

Eric Harris has joined the Senate Foreign Relations Committee as communications director.


On the Button

What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.

Budget battles. Get your party snacks and your Rip Its out, everyone. Wednesday was the annual marathon House Armed Services Committee markup of the U.S. Defense Department’s authorization bill. The back-and-forth 14-hour-plus bickerfest featured Republicans, who now control the gavel, pushing back on Pentagon diversity training, the agency’s embrace of transgender rights, and COVID vaccine mandates.

Here are some of the things that Republicans got passed: Banning defense officials from sponsoring drag shows on U.S. military bases, banning the teaching of “critical race theory” at military service academies, and cutting funding for diversity hiring. It’s not clear how any of that will hold up in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

Xi’s just not that into you. A day after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken wrapped up his high-stakes, not-so-charm-offensive trip to China, Biden slammed Chinese President Xi Jinping as a “dictator” and said Xi was embarrassed by the spy balloon incident. As Robbie and our colleague Christina Lu write this week, the split screen here shows how Team Biden is trying to have it both ways on China—reaching out to engage with Beijing on responsible competition, while also leaning into a hawkish and confrontational strategy back in Washington. China clearly isn’t into it, but the jury’s still out on whether Biden can actually pull it off.

Appeal denied. Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, jailed on trumped-up espionage charges in Russia, has been denied a bid to forgo pretrial detention, meaning he will remain behind bars until at least the end of August. Gershkovich was detained by Russian agents from the Federal Security Service in March while on a reporting trip in the city of Yekaterinburg. Both the Wall Street Journal and the Biden administration have called the charges baseless.


Snapshot

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hosts a delegation of top African leaders, led by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, on a visit to Ukraine and Russia to try to broker peace between the two countries.

Put On Your Radar

Today: Biden and Modi are set to meet at the White House before having a state dinner tonight. But if you’ve read this far, you should already know that. One thing the White House isn’t confirming it’ll raise with Modi: the case of Defense News contributor Vivek Raghuvanshi, who was jailed on espionage charges in mid-May.

Friday, June 23: Modi continues to get the star treatment at the White House with a luncheon hosted by Blinken and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Nikki Haley, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and current Republican presidential contender, is set to speak on U.S.-China relations at the American Enterprise Institute think tank in Washington.

Saturday, June 24: Sierra Leone holds a general election.

Modi continues his global charm offensive with a two-day trip to Egypt.

Sunday, June 25: Guatemala holds a general election.


Quote of the Week

“I want to scream and say, ‘Give me back my son.’ It’s very hard, but I will be there smiling. I will be smiling for Evan, and they are not going to see my tears.”

—Ella Milman, the mother of jailed Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, speaking to the paper before traveling to Moscow for his hearing on Thursday.


This Week’s Most Read


Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

Cage match. Mark Zuckerberg says he’s down to fight Elon Musk in a cage. No, really.

Is that controller out of batteries? As everyone (or at least many of us) fixated on the desperate search-and-rescue mission for a lost submersible with billionaire adventurers near the sunken RMS Titanic, news emerged that the submersible was driven by a cheap video game controller. It may sound like a bad punchline at first, but military pros (and avid SitRep readers) may already know that the U.S. military actually often uses gaming controllers in complex military equipment, from controlling masts on advanced submarines to anti-ship missile launchers and short-range air defense systems.

New phone, who dis. Not expecting a response, reporters from Politico did their journalistic due diligence and reached out to Russian warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin (you know, the guy who runs the paramilitary Wagner Group) to see if he would comment on an investigation that determined the makers of a Russian rifle acquired American ammunition. To their surprise, Prigozhin called back and left a voicemail (Who does that anymore?). Prigozhin seemed to deny the claims and jokingly asked for F-35 fighter jets. You can’t make this up.