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On Saturday, former U.S. President Donald Trump became the latest major political figure worldwide to face an assassination attempt, in an incident that experts say may reflect a broader global pattern of increasing threats and violence against politicians.
In recent years, for example, both Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico and former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan have survived being shot (Fico in May this year and Khan in November 2022), while then-Argentine Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner narrowly escaped a shooting attempt in 2022 when the gunman’s pistol jammed. South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung was stabbed in January, and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was stabbed in 2018. And assassinations claimed the lives of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (in 2022) and British politicians Jo Cox (in 2016) and David Amess (in 2021).
“We seem to be seeing that assassinations are on the rise now,” said Jacob Ware, a terrorism expert at the Council on Foreign Relations and the co-author of God, Guns, and Sedition: Far-Right Terrorism in America, although he noted that he was drawing on anecdotal evidence.
“Politicians and political figures are finding themselves in the crosshairs, and the people are determining that the ballot box and elections are no longer the best way to exercise political grievances,” Ware said.
The United States is no stranger to high-profile assassinations and attempts, both on the lives of sitting U.S. presidents and presidential candidates. Four former U.S. presidents—Abraham Lincoln, James Garfield, William McKinley, and John F. Kennedy—were killed during their presidential terms. A handful more survived failed attempts, including Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, and George W. Bush, the latter of whom had a hand grenade thrown at him while in Tbilisi, Georgia. In 1968, U.S. Senator Robert F. Kennedy, who was a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, was assassinated.
In recent years, the number of threats issued against U.S. public officials has grown, according to a 2024 study conducted by the researchers at the National Counterterrorism Innovation, Technology, and Education Center. The study, which examined federal charges over the past decade, found that threats have “steadily risen” over that time period, coinciding with a surge in political polarization across the country.
“In the last six years, the number of individuals who have been arrested at the federal level for making threats has nearly doubled from the previous four years,” the study’s authors wrote, while the number of federal prosecutions for such threats is “on pace to hit new record highs” in 2023 and 2024.
“The mistrust and distrust of government is so great that it leads to almost the dehumanization of political figures,” said Bruce Hoffman, a counterterrorism expert at the Council on Foreign Relations and the other co-author of God, Guns, and Sedition: Far-Right Terrorism in America. “That’s also contributed to this demonization of individuals that can, in the minds of certainly a minority of Americans, incite violence.”
Two recent examples are incidents involving former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who were the targets of failed abduction and assassination plots, respectively; in the Pelosi case, though the former speaker avoided the attack, her husband was brutally assaulted with a hammer. And in 2020, the FBI announced that it had arrested more than a dozen people in connection with a plot to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and put her on trial for treason; nine people were ultimately convicted or pleaded guilty in the plot, and five were acquitted.
“It certainly feels like we’re in a different era. There’s a lack of civility that I think permeates our political discourse, and it’s frequently peppered with references to violence and extreme violence” said Colin P. Clarke, the director of research at the Soufan Group. That includes Trump himself, Clarke said, who “has been a big purveyor of this.”
That may not be a uniquely American phenomenon, either. While assassinations of high-profile leaders in the world’s most-developed nations may be relatively rare today, the outlook may be different for other government figures around the world.
One key example is Mexico, which recently reached a bleak new political milestone in holding its deadliest election season ever. During the country’s 2024 election cycle, 37 political candidates were assassinated, many of whom were vying for local office. In the country’s 2021 midterm election, 36 candidates were assassinated, according to Integralia, a security consultancy.
Beyond the issue of assassinations, other violence against candidates was also more pervasive in Mexico this year. Integralia logged 828 nonlethal violent incidents during the 2024 election season, eclipsing the 389 attacks recorded in 2018 during the country’s previous presidential election.
Pakistan has also experienced a rise in such threats in recent years. According to the University of Maryland’s Global Terrorism Database, whose data only goes as far as 2020, Pakistan experienced a marked uptick in assassinations and attempts against government officials from 2012 to 2016, peaking at 36 in 2013 and 2015.
While variations in laws and data collection make it difficult for researchers to measure whether there’s been a broad global uptick in violence, these examples indicate that they’re hardly uncommon. Now, the attempted assassination of Trump may serve as an alarm bell for other officials around the world. On Sunday, John Woodcock, a member of the U.K. House of Lords and a former government advisor on political violence, said in an interview with the Guardian that the attempted assassination is “a vivid reminder of the vulnerability of all politicians” and warned of the possibility of similar attacks in the United Kingdom.
“We have seen the growth in the UK of US-style politics of aggressive confrontation and intimidation which is unfortunately, exactly the toxic environment that could lead to another assassination attempt on a UK politician, of which we have already tragically seen a number in recent years,” he said.
Ware, the Council on Foreign Relations expert, said that the attempted assassination of Trump, a former U.S. president, presents an “opportunity for Americans to come together and decide: ‘Is this really the kind of country that we want to build for the next generation?’”