Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Latin America Brief.
The highlights this week: Amazon rainforest countries hold a summit, Mercosur and Canada restart trade talks, and a Milei family scandal rocks Argentina.
Forests in Focus
Last Friday, leaders of eight countries home to the Amazon rainforest gathered in Bogotá for a summit. It was the fifth such event that the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) has held since its creation in 1995—and the second in the past three years.
The most recent meetings underscored the environmental ambitions of Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who hosted in 2023.
But more summits do not necessarily mean more results: At the 2023 event, Brazil’s goal of getting all eight countries to sign on to a target of zero deforestation was blocked by countries that reportedly included Bolivia, Guyana, and Suriname. (The remaining ACTO members are Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela.)
Instead, that meeting ended in a vaguer pledge to stop forest destruction from reaching an unspecified “point of no return.” Some scientists warn that after the Amazon reaches a threshold of around 20 percent to 25 percent destruction, it will become a drier grassland. Conservation groups estimate that at least 13 percent to 17 percent of the original rainforest has been lost already.
Two years later, deforestation numbers from some of the major Amazon countries have worsened. In 2024, Amazon deforestation in Colombia jumped some 50 percent compared to the year before, though it remains far below the country’s all-time high in 2017, according to the Monitoring of the Andes Amazon Program. In Bolivia, Amazon deforestation reached a record level in 2024, according to the same project.
Each of those countries is home to a tenth of the rainforest or less. In Brazil, home to some 60 percent of the forest, Amazon deforestation decreased by around 17 percent in 2024 compared to 2023, according to research group MapBiomas.
Colombia’s reversal in progress is especially striking given Petro’s proclaimed environmental bona fides. Experts say the jump in deforestation is related to the recent breakdown of Petro’s cease-fire deals with armed groups.
One such group, Estado Mayor Central, had banned forest destruction in 2022 in areas where it was active as part of talks with the government. Previously, the group was permissive of illegal logging. But that truce has dissolved into clashes and prisoner-taking.
Bolivia’s spike in deforestation was less surprising. President Luis Arce’s Movement for Socialism administration has never made Amazon protection a top priority. Arce’s term will end in November, and neither of the two remaining conservative candidates in a runoff election to succeed him has signaled interest in forest preservation, either, Bolivian ecologist Marielos Peña-Claros told El Espectador.
“We have still not had any president that really demonstrated that they are worried about the environment and the Amazon,” she said. Peña-Claros is part of a multinational panel of scientists that researches the Amazon with funding from international donors. In 2023, ACTO countries proposed creating their own scientific panel that would produce data about the Amazon, but it has not materialized.
At last week’s ACTO meeting, Petro and Indigenous campaigners who were present urged other Amazon countries to commit to banning fossil fuel production in the forest. But some countries, reportedly including Brazil, Ecuador, and Venezuela, declined. Brazil in particular is pushing ahead with broad plans to expand oil production across the country; consultancy Rystead Energy estimates that the country’s oil output will rise 10 percent this year alone.
ACTO did make some progress at the summit. After the organization pledged in 2023 to step up cooperation against organized crime in the Amazon, Lula announced last week that a new police station for international cooperation will open next month in the Brazilian city of Manaus. He invited other leaders to visit.
In perhaps the most noteworthy news to emerge from Bogotá, ACTO countries announced their endorsement of a framework for a $125 billion forest protection fund. Brazil hopes to officially launch the plan at the United Nations climate summit that it will host in November, known as COP30.
The proposal has been in the works for two years. It would see public and private investors pool money into an interest-bearing portfolio, with part of the interest funding protection for tropical forests. Recipient countries would need to keep deforestation below a certain level to receive payments. Investors would receive their money back, plus interest, after a certain period of time.
The latest version of the plan endorsed by the ACTO countries also includes an enlarged governance role for Indigenous people and a new requirement that countries protect other types of forests—not just rainforests—in order to receive payments. The new proposed rules also ban countries from using the fund to invest in oil and gas.
Getting Amazon countries on board with the forest fund ahead of COP30 is a key step toward securing broader global buy-in. But beyond that, the scant progress on ACTO initiatives at the summit frustrated conservationists.
“ACTO has to move more quickly,” Peña-Claros said.
Upcoming Events
Friday, Aug. 29, to Friday, Sept. 5: The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission continues its annual meeting in Panama City.
Monday, Sept. 1: Guyana holds a general election.
Tuesday, Sept. 2: Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s trial for allegedly attempting a coup begins at the country’s Supreme Court.
Wednesday, Sept. 3: Jamaica holds a general election.
What We’re Following
Argentine President Javier Milei and his sister, Secretary-General of the Presidency Karina Milei, lead a motorcade during a rally ahead of provincial legislative elections in Lomas de Zamora, Argentina, on Aug. 27.Juan Mabromata/AFP via Getty Images
Milei family scandal. Audio recordings published on Argentine streaming channel Carnaval last week featured an official in President Javier Milei’s government alleging that Milei’s sister, Karina Milei—a cabinet member—benefited from a bribery scheme involving government money earmarked for medicines for disabled people.
The president quickly sacked the official heard in the recordings, Diego Spagnuolo, who ran the National Disability Agency. Milei did not immediately address the allegations until more than a week after they came to light, saying at a Wednesday night rally that everything Spagnuolo says “is a lie.” The scandal may affect Milei’s party’s showing in October midterm elections.
Threats to Maduro. Saber-rattling between the United States and Venezuela continued this week, with Venezuela responding to a U.S. naval deployment off its coast by sending warships of its own to its coastline.
Unnamed U.S. officials have told the media that the deployment is meant to respond to drug trafficking. But it also signals hostility to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s United Socialist Party administration, which U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio calls illegitimate.
Previous U.S. sanctions and threats of military action have failed to dislodge Maduro. But a different danger to the government may be slowly boiling, Venezuelan political scientist Marisela Betancourt wrote in Caracas Chronicles last week: onetime party members disillusioned with Maduro’s internal anti-democratic repression.
On Aug. 8, security forces detained a well-known human rights defender, Martha Lía Grajales, who had worked with the government of Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez. In recent months, Grajales had been raising awareness about political prisoners—until she herself became one.
The incident sparked blowback even among government stalwarts, and Grajales was released on Aug. 12. “No smear campaign is credible against a base that has spent more than 25 years working alongside the needs of local communities,” Betancourt wrote.
Paraguayan folk. Paraguay last week celebrated its National Folklore Day, which is typically marked by traditional music and dance. In recent years, a new folk band has gained popularity in the country: Las Paraguayas, an all-women group made up of the daughters, nieces, and granddaughters of famous Paraguayan folk singers.
The group has its roots on National Folklore Day in 2016, when a video of several of the women singing together went viral. Now, they have gained national prominence—and on Sunday, they launched a new album. Their vocal harmonies and acoustic guitar give a “fresh and profoundly emotive look” to Paraguayan folk music, newspaper ABC Color wrote.
Question of the Week
What percent of Paraguayans speak the Indigenous language Guaraní, according to a 2022 survey by the National Statistics Institute?
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In Focus: New Trade Talks
Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin receives the keys to the city from Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada during a ceremony at the Old City Hall in Mexico City on Aug. 28.Yuri Cortez/AFP via Getty Images
Latin American countries are continuing to diversify their trade partners in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. This week, South American trade bloc Mercosur said it was reopening free trade negotiations with Canada. The talks have been intermittent since the early 2010s. The announcement was made by Canada and Brazil, which is serving as Mercosur’s rotating chair.
A group of Brazilian business leaders is due to travel to Canada between Sept. 10 and 12. In the meantime, both countries are seeking to negotiate down the tariffs that they face from Washington. Brazil continues to face a 50 percent duty on many products, while Canada faces a baseline of 35 percent, with some exceptions.
Brazil is also trying to expand trade ties with Mexico after years of flirting with the idea. A delegation of senior Brazilian officials traveled to Mexico City for economic talks on Wednesday, signing statements of intent to cooperate on biofuels and broad export promotion.
The countries have two existing economic cooperation agreements, both signed in 2002. One reduces or removes tariffs on some 12 percent of bilateral trade; the other establishes free trade for certain vehicles and auto parts.
In particular, Brazil’s export promotion agency calculated that Mexico could be buying far more Brazilian furniture, marble, agricultural machinery, and dental equipment. Brazil sold around $455 million worth of these products to the United States last year. That number is expected to drop dramatically due to Trump’s tariffs.