A victory for former U.S. President Donald Trump would have a similar impact on the Republican Party as Ronald Reagan’s landslide reelection victory over Walter Mondale in 1984.
Whereas the 1980 election had been about promise, vision, and ambition, by 1984, voters knew exactly who they were electing. The win legitimated Reagan’s vision of right-wing conservatism—a mix of supply-side economics, deregulation, social conservatism, and a muscular approach to foreign policy—as the future of the GOP.
In 2024, Republican voters are making a similar choice. Trump’s first term was revealing, and any remaining illusions that he will change are, by now, shattered. His conservatism entails the unchecked use of executive power deployed alongside blistering, toxic rhetoric and a hefty dose of election denialism. Policy-wise, he champions tariffs, tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, stringent anti-immigration policies, and limited intervention overseas.
Trump has hidden nothing; most of his strategy and agenda is available for everyone to see in broad daylight. Those who vote for him this year are voting to entrench this vision for the Republican Party for the foreseeable future, and the GOP will certainly read a Trump victory as a clear verdict on the party’s path forward—and likely a mandate to do even more.
Without electoral incentive, the only force that can really move parties in an age of hyperpolarization, the MAGA Republican coalition will be here to stay.
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