Most elections tend to be referendums on incumbent leaders. Since U.S. President Joe Biden is no longer running for a second term, Vice President Kamala Harris assumes some—but not all—of his mantel as the incumbent. Her opponents have blamed her for problems with immigration and the economy; she has tried to underscore that she represents a new generation of leadership while also taking credit for some of the Biden administration’s accomplishments.
One way of considering this election is whether it is a referendum on the Biden (and Harris) administration or a vote against the alternative. If voters see it as the former, Harris will likely lose because Biden’s approval ratings are historically low. But if voters see it as the latter, former President Donald Trump will struggle to win.
Trump is hardly a change candidate. He secured the nomination that lead to his first term in 2016; he is now 78 years old. Given his age and the ongoing court cases against him, this is likely his final run. A Trump loss may also herald a fundamental rethinking of what the Republican Party stands for. It’s unlikely that Trump will disappear, but another defeat will make it difficult for him or his surrogates to have a reasonable claim on the future. A Trump loss could mean the end of Trumpism.
This post is part of FP’s live coverage with global updates and analysis throughout the U.S. election. Follow along here.