Russia’s War in Ukraine

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep! Jack and Robbie here, bringing you our very special, very over-caffeinated, and very jetlagged edition of SitRep from the Munich Security Conference.

We’ve spent the day circling the Bayerischer Hof hotel, talking to European ministers, U.S. lawmakers, and security experts about the hottest topics at the annual conference. Following from afar?

Keep sending us tips and ideas. Here in Munich? Send us an email, we’d love to meet up: Jack.Detsch@foreignpolicy.com and Robbie.Gramer@foreignpolicy.com.

Here’s what we’ve got on tap: Growing fears of what a Russian offensive in Ukraine will bring, our talk with Biden’s top arms control envoy on the New START treaty, and mounting concerns about China’s relations with Russia.

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It was a day of headaches on the first full day of the Munich Security Conference, and it wasn’t just the beer in Germany’s third-largest city (which is delicious, by the way). An airport workers strike snarled flights into Munich, leaving dozens of American, European, and congressional officials straight out of luck on getting to the Bavarian capital—or forced to pack themselves onto trains to get the rest of the way in.

Then there was the issue of security—and not the kind of security that Vice President Kamala Harris, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and French President Emmanuel Macron came to Munich to talk about—but the type of security perimeter that comes with heads of state and top officials from more than four dozen countries getting packed into one hotel.

Your fearless SitRep hosts weren’t immune to the mayhem, either: Robbie ended up getting routed to three different entrances before he was finally allowed inside, and was stuck behind a motorcade on his way back into the conference in the afternoon.

Migraine. But the biggest headache of all loomed large in the background: Russia’s continuing military offensive in Ukraine ahead of the one-year mark of the full-scale invasion, where the Kremlin could order as many as 300,000 more troops forward—nearly double what they had on the battlefield a year ago.

It’s not just Russia’s attacks in Ukraine that worried officials and conference goers. Speaking to members of Congress behind-the-scenes, Pentagon officials warned that through the paramilitary Wagner group, Russia was making inroads into diamond mines in Africa and gas fields. And China, with its port investments all over the continent, was not far behind.

Battle of wills. Meanwhile, a small gaggle of Ukrainian officials in Munich, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made his final trip out of the country before Russia’s full-scale invasion last February, sought to make sure the West was resolute on supporting their war effort until the end. And Zelensky echoed that message in prime time, while his erstwhile political opponent (and Ukraine’s former president) Petro Poroshenko held court at the Bayerhof’s Falk bar, where growing pile of dirty dishes, empty cocktail glasses, and half-drank Pellegrino bottles piled up over the marathon 12-hour conference day.

“The terrorist state is looking to adapt to the restrictions that are in place,” Zelensky said in a Zoom address to the conference in his trademark army green sweater emblazoned with a gold trident, the nation’s coat of arms. “It’s not just about Ukraine, the point is that Goliath must lose.”

Is no news on nukes good news on nukes? Russian President Vladimir Putin was taking advantage of the West’s delays to try and further undermine resolve, Zelensky said in an English-language address before reverting to Ukrainian for a question and answer session.

Yet officials within the Biden administration–which has declared Russia non-compliant with the New START treaty–are also still playing a guessing game about Putin’s nuclear intentions, after months of saber-rattling. “It’s a challenging time to talk to Russia and China,” said one senior U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity to speak candidly about behind-the-scenes talks. “But we have to keep trying.”

It’s not all about tanks. At behind-the-scenes gatherings on the sidelines of the conference, top U.S. military officials insisted that the tanks coming to Ukraine were not a cure-all for Kyiv’s military problems. European officials insisted that Ukraine needs ammo, and lots of it, to deal with Russia’s offensive. Read more about how the war in Ukraine will be decided by the war of logistics here.

Zelensky promised that he’d be in Munich next year–in person. “We can gain victory not only over Putin, but over Putins,” Zelensky said. “Next year, let’s gather here in Munich for the post-war conference, for a free Europe and a free world.”

What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.

No fresh start on New START. Things aren’t looking so hot for the last nuclear arms pact between the United States and Russia. Last month, the State Department notified Congress that Russia was failing to comply with the landmark treaty by not allowing American inspectors into Russian nuclear sites, and ghosting the Americans on restarting working-level talks on the treaty.

Team SitRep sat down with Biden’s top arms control envoy, Bonnie Jenkins, who said the treaty wasn’t on life support, but they were still waiting for any word from the Russians on getting back to the negotiating table—and back on the inspection schedule.

“We don’t consider them in material breach [of the treaty], this is not a question of extreme numbers higher than they’re supposed to be,” she said. “It’s really that they need to meet with us and talk to us about doing inspections again.”

“They know what we’re saying, we know what they’re saying,” she added. “We haven’t yet gone back to them directly but we plan to do that, to reach out to them again.”

When SitRep asked when, she had a one word reply: “Soon.”

What’s Beijing think of Moscow? It’s the big question on everyone’s minds here at MSC. Top Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, used to be semi-frequent MSC guests, but that was all before the war. This time around, no Russian officials were invited, but China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, is here and everyone is watching who he meets and what he says to glean any type of information or hint on how Beijing’s ties with Moscow may be changing.

NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg told reporters that the alliance was “following closely the increased and stronger relationship between China and Russia.”

Current and former U.S. officials here have told us they’re alarmed by the prospect that Chinese state-owned firms may be providing Russia with economic and non-lethal military assistance as it carries out its war.

If it’s not overt support for Russia does it mean Beijing may change its tune in the future?

“What we see from the administration on this issue, the pitch in their voice is getting a little higher and a little louder,” Heather Conley, the president of the German Marshall Fund think tank, told SitRep in an interview.

“Clearly China has made a decision to not give any overt support, but they’re certainly not stopping this assistance [to Russia] from state-owned firms.”

No room for negotiations, says Macron. French President Emannuel Macron has rankled some eastern European allies and (more quietly, U.S. officials) by occasionally calling Putin directly to address the war. So when Macron spoke about dialogue with Russia in his speech at MSC on Friday, people’s ears perked up. Few policymakers, if any, in Munich think there’s any prospect for dialogue with Putin on ending the war now, but if there was indeed anyone in that camp, Macron dashed their hopes.

“We must not be naive, show unity, act vigorously and pursue dialogue as well wherever it is possible, but at the moment the hour of dialogue hasn’t come yet,” he said.

But ultimately, Macron isn’t a believer that Putin’s regime will go down at the end of the war. “I don’t believe a second in regime change,” Macron added. “We have to find a way to force Russia to come back to the table under the conditions of Ukraine.”

Veep. Vice President Kamala Harris held a lavish reception on the sidelines of the conference, but some congressional aides decided to bail on it for greener pastures (and rumors that there was no food or drink at the event).

Giftbag. Sen. Joni Ernst is now the proud recipient of a new “F-16s: Let’s Rock for Ukraine” T-shirt from Ukrainian anti-corruption activist Daria Kaleniuk and former parliamentarian Hanna Hopko—a less-than-subtle hint that Ukraine wants F-16s and some members of Congress may be on board with the plan. Another recipient: Rep. Jason Crow.

Tomorrow at Munich Security Conference

4:45am Eastern: China’s top diplomat Wang Yi speaks. He’s set to meet U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the conference this weekend.

6:30am Eastern: Kamala Harris speaks with Christoph Heusgen, the chairman of the conference.

7:00am Eastern: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks with Maria Tadeo of Bloomberg.

“It’s just cash for chaos.”

—a U.S. lawmaker, who spoke to us on condition of anonymity, summing up their take on what Russia’s private mercenary group Wagner group is doing in Africa.

Impounded. Latvia’s parliament is finalizing legislation that would allow the state to donate cars confiscated from drunk drivers to Ukraine. Yes, seriously.

Man in the mirror. One weird fun fact: Across the street from the swanky Hotel Bayerischer Hof where the Munich Security Conference is held, on the so-called Promenadeplatz, there is a full-blown shrine to Michael Jackson. We swear.