Wisconsin voters will go to the polls Tuesday for the state’s Supreme Court election, which is drawing national attention as billionaire Elon Musk spends millions on the high-stakes race, which could have national implications for House races and the 2028 presidential election—and help Musk-owned Tesla.

The election will take place Tuesday, though early voting has already begun.

Schimel is a circuit court judge in Wisconsin and the state’s former attorney general. He is a Republican, though the Supreme Court race is nonpartisan. He has expressed a number of conservative views, including opposition to abortion rights, backing more stringent restrictions on voting—like voter ID laws—and, as attorney general, led a lawsuit against the Affordable Care Act. Schimel has also echoed Trump’s rhetoric about voter fraud—which there is no evidence to support—calling for voters to turn out and make his margin in the Supreme Court election “too big to rig.”

Crawford is also a state circuit judge, who before that was an attorney in private practice. She has been endorsed by Wisconsin’s Democratic Party and other left-leaning groups. Crawford has expressed left-leaning views such as supporting abortion rights and saying the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade was “wrongly decided,” and she also previously represented a voting rights organization in court arguing against Wisconsin’s voter ID law. In an interview with PBS Wisconsin, Crawford denied that she would rule in a partisan way on the Supreme Court however, saying she’s approaching the race “as a judge, and I want to be a good, fair, impartial, common-sense justice for the people of Wisconsin.”

The race will determine the ideological shift of Wisconsin’s highest court, which could influence how the court rules on a number of very high-profile issues. The court will likely have to decide voting rules for the 2028 presidential election, in which Wisconsin will be a key battleground state. Abortion is also expected to be a key issue in the race, as there are multiple lawsuits now pending before the court over whether the state’s constitution protects abortion rights and whether to uphold a 19th century-era law outlawing the procedure. The New York Times notes the court’s makeup could also be of personal benefit to Musk, as his company Tesla has sued Wisconsin for blocking the company from opening dealerships in the state. Wisconsin generally bans auto manufacturers from owning dealerships, and the state denied Tesla’s application to open dealerships under an exemption in that law. The case could go to the state’s highest court, meaning Musk could be helped out by having a friendly judge on the bench.

The could could decide how to redraw the state’s congressional maps. Any gerrymandering could play a role in which party ultimately controls the House, as the razor-thin split between parties in the chamber means even one or two districts redrawn could have an impact. The GOP now controls six of Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts, though they have previously favored Democrats in the past. The Wisconsin Supreme Court declined to consider a challenge to the state’s congressional maps last year, but could in the future. “Whichever party controls the House to a significant degree controls the country, which then steers the course of Western civilization,” Musk said at his Wisconsin rally Sunday about the race’s impact on House maps.

Crawford’s campaign has sought to highlight Schimel’s association with Musk, referring to her opponent as “Elon Schimel” and putting up billboards proclaiming, “Don’t let Elon buy the Supreme Court.” Crawford campaign spokesperson Derrick Honeyman told the Associated Press the race “is the first real test point in the country on Elon Musk and his influence on our politics, and voters want an opportunity to push back on that and the influence.”

A Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce poll conducted March 9-10 showed Schimel and Crawford each with 47% support, suggesting this will be a close race, though a more recent poll conducted March 25-26 by SoCal Strategies showed Crawford ahead with 50% to Schimel’s 42%. A recent Marquette Law School poll found Wisconsin voters hadn’t been very informed about this election, however, with 38% saying they haven’t heard enough about Schimel to have an opinion and 58% saying the same about Crawford. That poll was conducted in late February, before Trump and Musk started significantly weighing in on the race. The national spotlight they’ve put on the election is likely to make voters more aware of who’s running, though it remains to be seen if it will be enough for Schimel to pull out a win.

Musk has drawn controversy from legal experts and Democrats for giving $1 million each to two Wisconsin voters Sunday. The billionaire initially claimed on X he was giving away the million-dollar prizes to voters who had already cast a ballot in the race, which he said was “in appreciation for you taking the time to vote.” After legal experts suggested that clearly ran afoul of a state law that bars anyone from giving voters “anything of value” to persuade them to vote, Musk deleted that post and said the prizes would instead be awarded to people who have signed America PAC’s petition against purportedly partisan judges, and the cash would be a payment “to be spokesmen for the petition.” Wisconsin attorney general Josh Kaul sued Musk in an effort to stop the billionaire from giving away the cash, arguing it still violated state law, but the giveaway went forward after two lower Wisconsin courts and the Wisconsin Supreme Court all declined to block it. None of those courts have yet issued a lasting ruling on whether or not the giveaway is legal under state law, however.

Musk is far from the only billionaire who is financially backing the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Among the other billionaires listed in public filings as spending thousands to support Schimel—either directly or through the Wisconsin Republican Party—are ABC Supply cofounder Diane Hendricks, Uline president Elizabeth Uihlein, Uline CEO Richard Uihlein and Joe Ricketts, the founder of TD Ameritrade and owner of the Chicago Cubs. Crawford has also drawn significant billionaire support from the likes of Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, LinkedIn cofounder Reid Hoffman and Democratic megadonor George Soros, who gave the Wisconsin Democratic Party $1 million in January.

$100 million. That’s how much money could ultimately be spent on the Wisconsin Supreme Court election in support of both Schimel and Crawford, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel projected last week. That would be a historic amount and more than double the $51 million spent in 2023, a previous spending record for a Supreme Court race in the state. More than $90 million has already been spent on the race, according to a tally compiled by the Brennan Center for Justice, including more than $40.3 million supporting Crawford and $49.8 million supporting Schimel.

Forbes values Musk’s net worth at $342.9 billion as of Monday morning, ranking him as the richest person in the world.

Musk, the richest person in the world, ramped up his political giving last summer, when he formed America PAC shortly after endorsing Trump following the assassination attempt against the then-candidate. The Tesla CEO went on to become one of Trump’s top donors, creating a political operation through America PAC that ran a significant ground game backing Trump in battleground states and offered money to voters in swing states who signed on to a petition—which raised legal concerns but ultimately was upheld in court. Musk vowed to keep his political operation going in future elections following Trump’s win, saying in November that America PAC would “keep grinding” and “increasing Republican registrations in key districts around the country, in preparation for special elections and the midterms”—with the Wisconsin election being the first major event for the PAC following the presidential race.

Elon Musk Returns to His Trump Playbook in a Big Wisconsin Race (New York Times)

Abortion once more plays a key role in a state political fight, this time in Wisconsin’s court race (Associated Press)

Trump backs Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate in hotly contested race (Associated Press)

Musk and Trump ratchet up involvement in Wisconsin Supreme Court race (Washington Post)