Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are roughly even in Wisconsin, according to the latest survey, as polling averages show Trump has cut into Harris’ advantage in the crucial swing state, making it a virtual tie just two weeks before Election Day.
Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Findlay Toyota Center on October 13, ... [+]
The two candidates are tied 48%-48% in a Quinnipiac poll of likely Wisconsin voters published Wednesday, a small shift from Trump’s 48%-46% lead earlier this month (the latest poll has a margin of error of 2.9 points, and respondents could pick third-party candidates)
Harris is up three points, 50% to 47%, in a Washington Post-Schar School poll of likely voters released Monday (margin of error 4.6), and an early October Wall Street Journal poll showed them tied at 48% among registered voters.
Most polls of Wisconsin—whose 10 electoral votes could prove crucial—reflect a razor-thin race, with Harris leading by just 0.5 points in FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.
A Marquette Law School poll released Oct. 2 found Harris up six points over Trump in the state and that enthusiasm for voting has ticked up sharply, with 67% of respondents saying they are “very” enthusiastic, compared to 46% who said so in June; enthusiasm among Wisconsin Democrats is slightly higher, with 71% saying they are very enthusiastic and 67% of Republicans saying they’re very enthusiastic.
Voter turnout in Wisconsin could be high in November as there are several competitive U.S. House races in the state on the ballot and Republicans are in a tight contest to maintain majority control of the state Assembly, Anthony Chergosky, an assistant professor of political science at University of Wisconsin-La Crosse told WUWM public radio in Milwaukee.
Waning support for Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in the Wisconsin Senate race is also seen as a warning sign for Democrats as Cook Political Report moved the state from lean Democrat to a toss-up last week after finding her lead over Republican Eric Hovde has shrunk from seven points to two since August, though a Marquette Law School poll, also released last week, still found her with a seven point advantage.
Biden won Wisconsin by less than one point in 2020, flipping the state after Trump beat Hillary Clinton there in 2016; former President Barack Obama won the state by decisive margins in both 2008 and in 2012.
It’s a virtual tossup. Statistician Nate Silver puts Harris’ odds at just over 53%. Similarly, FiveThirtyEight’s model says Harris wins the state in 55 out of 100 simulations of the race, while Trump wins in 45.
1.8 points. That’s Harris’ lead over Trump nationally, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Republicans control both the State assembly and Senate in Wisconsin, and the governor’s office is held by Democrat Tony Evers.
The race between Harris and Trump is a virtual tie, according to surveys that show Trump has closed the polling gap after Harris led him in most surveys taken in the weeks after she replaced Biden at the top of the ticket in July. Wisconsin is among seven swing states likely to determine the winner of the 2024 election, in addition to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. Winning the three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin is widely considered to be Harris’ clearest path to 270 electoral votes, assuming she also takes all of the other states Biden won in 2020. Polls in the other six swing states show mixed results in the race: Trump is ahead in North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona, while Harris leads in Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin.
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