If he chooses, Marcus Stroman could be one of the most highly sought after free agent pitchers this winter. After two seasons with the Cubs, he has an opt out in his contract and could sign elsewhere for next year.

But, Stroman could choose to opt in with the Cubs for 2024 at another $21 million on top of the $50 million he’s already made on his current contract. There are reasons to think he will choose to stay in Chicago.

Stroman was having a mostly successful season this year, at least until hip and rib injuries put him on the injured list on July 31. Based on how he pitched from April through most of June, he could garner enough attention on the free agent market to merit turning down the $21 million from the Cubs.

On the other hand, Stroman started struggling in late June before hitting the IL, and he has only recently returned to the Cubs rotation. Stroman tossed three innings and allowed three runs against the Rockies on Saturday, September 23.

He does not have to decide now, but there are multiple reports indicating that Stroman might be leaning toward staying in Chicago next season.

First, from Patrick Mooney at The Athletic:

“Stroman’s public lobbying for a contract extension probably revealed some apprehension about how he would be viewed on the free-agent market, as well as an appreciation for his setup with the Cubs. It appears to be highly likely that Stroman will opt into his $21 million salary for next season.”

In short, Stroman’s options as a free agent this winter probably aren’t that great, and he’s better off taking the sure $21 million next year and make his case that he will stay healthy and pitch well all season before he tries at another contract going into 2025.

Along with Mooney’s report, there’s also this from Bob Nightengale at USA Today:

“Chicago Cubs starter Marcus Stroman, who was planning to opt out of the final year of his contract that will pay him $21 million next season, now is expecting to stay in Chicago without an extension.”

Before he started to struggle during the London Series in late June, Stroman pitched well enough to be named an All Star and even be among the names listed as early Cy Young candidates. But after his June 25 start, Stroman’s performance declined. Something that, in hindsight, appears to have been caused by hip problems that put him on the IL about a month later.

Since returning from the IL on September 15, Stroman has worked primarily out of the Cubs bullpen. Saturday’s start against Colorado was his first since July, but he is in line to start again on Thursday against the Braves. That will likely be his audition to be a part of the Cubs rotation in the playoffs. And depending on how he performs in the wild card series — and potentially, beyond — Stroman’s plans for the future might change.

As things stand now, it seems most likely that the 32-year-old will decide to stick with the Cubs. He has a lot of money coming his way if he decides to stay in Chicago for another year, and Stroman’s prospects for getting a much better offer from another team aren’t very good at this point. Maybe had he continued to pitch like he was during the first three months of the season things would be different. The reality is that the second half of Stroman’s season has not gone well, from both a heath and performance perspective. So given how things have gone for Stromman since late June, opting in with the Cubs is probably his best option.