Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s anticipated exit from the presidential race and rumored endorsement of former President Donald Trump might help Trump in the race by a tiny margin, according to some analyses, but his single-digit polling average isn’t likely to boost Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris enough to tip the scales in either candidate’s favor.
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks during the Freedom Fest at the ... [+]
RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows Harris with a 1.6-point advantage over Trump in a five-way race with Kennedy, independent Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein on the ballot, but her lead only narrows to 1.5 points in a two-way matchup—indicating Kennedy would barely help Trump if he’s not on the ballot.
Similarly, an Emerson College poll released Thursday found Kennedy’s exit from the race is a wash: Trump and Harris both gained two points in a head-to-head matchup, compared to their margins in a six-way race.
A Washington Post analysis, however, found that Kennedy has been hurting Trump more than Harris since President Joe Biden left the race, citing six reputable surveys that found Trump loses points when third-party candidates are in the mix.
Equal shares (2%) of Republicans and Democrats and those who lean toward either party backed Kennedy in an Aug. 11-13 Economist/YouGov poll, while Kennedy netted 8% of support from voters who identified as independent or leaning independent.
An Aug. 1-4 NPR/PBS/Marist poll also found 2% of Democrats, 3% of Republicans and 12% of independents would support Kennedy.
Since the Kennedy voters who identify as Republican or Democrat would likely vote for their party’s preferred candidate in a two-way race, most of the votes up for grabs are from independents who prefer Kennedy.
Generally, independent voters tend to prefer Harris over Trump (48% to 37% in the NPR/PBS/Marist poll and 33% to 20% in the Economist/YouGov poll when voters who lean independent are factored in), suggesting she’s more likely to pick up a larger share of the independent voters who say they’d back Kennedy.
4.5%. That’s the share of voters who back Kennedy as of Wednesday, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average, compared to 16.7% who supported him in November, a month after he dropped his Democratic primary bid to run as an independent.
Harris gains ground in the crucial swing states of Michigan (0.4 points) and Wisconsin (0.7 points) with Kennedy in the mix, but Trump benefits with him on the ballot in Nevada (1 point) and Georgia (0.7 points), according to a RealClearPolitics analysis. Harris also makes gains in Arizona and Pennsylvania with Kennedy on the ballot—enough, in fact, to take the lead away from Trump given his narrow advantage in the two key swing states, according to RealClearPolitics.
Kennedy announced Wednesday he will speak Friday about his “path forward” in the presidential race, and multiple outlets reported he will drop out and endorse Trump. His running mate, Nicole Shanahan, said in an interview on Tuesday he was considering ending his presidential campaign to endorse Trump, amid a decline in polls and a struggle to fundraise. Trump has been angling for Kennedy’s endorsement, and met with him in July to discuss the prospect. Trump has also said he’s open to giving Kennedy a role in his administration if he’s elected to a second term.
Further Reading
RFK Jr. Will Speak About ‘Path Forward’ Friday Amid Reports He Will Drop Out And Endorse Trump (Forbes)
Election Betting Markets Swing Towards Trump As RFK Jr. Mulls Dropping Out (Forbes)