Longshot presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is making a play to appear on the ballot in multiple key swing states—and there are indicators the former Democrat could draw more votes from President Joe Biden than former President Donald Trump in what’s expected to be a closely contested race.
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. hosts a fireside chat with rapper and producer Eric B. at The Gentleman's ... [+]
Kennedy Jr.’s campaign announced Tuesday it collected enough signatures to put him on the ballot in Nevada, after he exceeded the signature threshold to qualify for the Utah ballot in January, while the American Values super PAC that’s supporting his candidacy also claims to have the signatures to secure his spot on the ballots in Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina.
Candidates must be nominated by a major political party to appear on the general election ballot for president, qualify by petition in each state or register as a write-in candidate.
Kennedy Jr.’s politics are somewhat of an enigma: he is a scion of perhaps the world’s most famous Democratic family, a background likely to appeal to some Democratic voters—though his anti-vaccine advocacy could deter them, in the same way that it could attract GOP voters looking for a Trump alternative.
A November Siena College poll of voters in six battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) found slightly more Democrats than Republicans (18% versus 16%) would back Kennedy Jr., indicating he could draw more votes from Biden versus Trump, while RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows Trump leads Biden by 2.8 points with Kennedy Jr. on the ballot, compared to 2.2 points in a head-to-head matchup.
Another poll, by Quinnipiac University in February, found that the inclusion of Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein on the ballot appear to hurt Biden more than they do Trump, who would lose eight points with the other two candidates on the ballot, compared to an 11-point loss for Biden.
Without Kennedy Jr., West and Stein on the ballot, Biden would beat Trump by four points, but with them, Biden’s lead narrows to one point, the poll of 1,421 registered voters found (margin of error 2.6 points)—similarly, a December Reuters/Ipsos survey found Trump’s lead over Biden widens from two points to five when Kennedy Jr. is on the ballot, and a January Harvard CAPS-Harris poll found Trump expands his lead over Biden from six to eight points with Kennedy Jr. on the ballot.
“Kennedy’s name may be well-known, but his policy positions are not,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute said. “However, it’s not clear that knowing those positions will move his support levels either up or down.”
A December Wall Street Journal survey found Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy costs Trump more votes than it does Biden, while a December Monmouth University poll found Kennedy Jr. pulls support equally from both candidates. Independent candidates rarely win enough votes (typically 1% or less of the popular vote) to sway presidential elections.
39%. That’s the share of independent voters who said they’ll cast their ballots for Kennedy Jr., according to the November Siena poll that found independents are virtually split between Trump (25%) and Biden (28%).
Kennedy Jr. announced his candidacy on the Democratic ticket in April last year, before switching his party affiliation to independent in October, drawing criticism and concerns from Trump allies, including Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung, who called his candidacy “nothing more than a vanity project for a liberal Kennedy looking to cash in on his family’s name.” Kennedy Jr., a former environmental lawyer and founder of the anti-vaccine advocacy organization Children’s Health Defense, has largely centered his campaign around his criticism of the federal response to the Covid-19 pandemic, while emphasizing voters’ dissatisfaction with both Trump and Biden. The two are headed for a rematch in November, with no other viable competitors to Trump after former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley dropped out of the race Wednesday.