A quartet of candidates are still in the mix to secure President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of perhaps the most important vacant cabinet position, secretary of the Treasury, a post that will make the individual perhaps the most influential voice in dictating the Trump economy.
Kevin Warsh is the odds-on favorite to be Trump's top economic pick.
Speculation about who Trump would tap dates back to just after Election Day, and recent reports identify the following four candidates as conducting recent meetings with Trump regarding the Treasury secretary role.
Kevin Warsh: A member of the Federal Reserve’s seven-member governing board from 2006 to 2011, Warsh is the current favorite for the nomination, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, citing anonymous sources. The report indicated Bessent’s time as Treasury secretary could be fleeting, as the former central banker Warsh may later be Trump’s nominee as chairman of the Fed in 2026, when current Fed boss Jerome Powell’s term expires. Warsh is married to Jane Lauder, the billionaire heir to the Estée Lauder cosmetics fortune.
Scott Bessent: If Warsh is picked to lead the Treasury before leaving for the Fed, the Journal identified hedge fund mogul Bessent as the likely pick as Treasury secretary replacement and to lead the National Economic Council in the interim. Bessent, who is known for his leadership roles at firms founded by Democratic megadonor George Soros, went to bat for Trump on the campaign trail and has spoken favorably of the controversial tariffs touted by Trump.
Marc Rowan: The billionaire CEO of private equity giant Apollo Global Management, Rowan interviewed Wednesday for the role at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, according to multiple reports. Rowan’s policy ambitions are perhaps the least clear of the four contenders, but Rowan told Yahoo Finance last week he sees the need for “more constructive” federal regulation of the private sector and "wholesale change” to lessen the U.S.’ swelling national debt.
Bill Hagerty: The GOP Senator from Tennessee is considered the biggest longshot by oddsmakers, though Axios reported Wednesday that Hagerty is still under consideration. Hagerty appeared Tuesday alongside Trump at a SpaceX rocket launch, the aerospace firm led by the world’s richest person and close Trump ally Elon Musk. Hagerty served as the Ambassador to Japan under Trump and is a member of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, & Urban Affairs.
Prediction markets give all four of those men a fighter’s chance at securing the nomination: Polymarket has Warsh in the lead at 37%, followed by Bessent at 34%, Rowan at 15% and Hagerty at 12%, while Kalshi has Warsh at 35%, Bessent at 34%, Rowan at 18% and Hagerty at 12%.
$36 trillion. That’s the total debt owed by the U.S. federal government, by far an all-time high, posing one of the most glaring issues for the next Treasury boss to address. A 29% increase from the $27.8 trillion national debt held at President Joe Biden’s 2021 inauguration, the national debt swelled by 39% during Trump’s first presidential term.
An early favorite to score Trump’s nod for Treasury boss, billionaire Wall Street veteran Howard Lutnick was nominated Tuesday as secretary of Commerce, a slightly less influential role in shepherding the broader economy than Treasury boss. Lutnick, who was backed by Musk, slid out of contention as Treasury secretary as Trump grew tired of his public lobbying for the role, according to the New York Times.