The Philadelphia 76ers are headed into a pivotal offseason that could determine whether they remain a championship contender next year.

Sixers guard James Harden is planning to decline his $35.6 million player option for the 2023-24 season to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, according to Bleacher Report's Chris Haynes. He will reportedly be "seeking a four-year contract" and will only "entertain suitors that present a competitive roster and the basketball freedom for the star to be himself," Haynes added.

Rumors have been circulating for months about Harden and the Houston Rockets having mutual interest in a reunion this summer. If the Rockets are willing to offer Harden a four-year max, the Sixers might have to do the same or let him walk.

However, Kelly Iko of The Athletic told Michael Scotto of HoopsHype that he doesn’t believe the Rockets will go that high. If that’s true, the Sixers need to determine their own walkaway price in contract talks.

The Sixers can offer Harden no more than $210.1 million on a four-year deal (based on the current $134 million salary-cap projection), while other teams can offer him $201.7 million at most over that span. If not for the Over-38 rule, the Sixers could have offered him a five-year, $272.0 million deal, which would have given them a clear financial advantage over other suitors.

Harden did make a notable sacrifice last summer when he declined his $47.4 million player option and signed a two-year, $68.6 million deal with a starting salary of $33 million. He effectively took a $14.4 million paycut to ensure the Sixers had enough room under the salary-cap apron to sign both P.J. Tucker (non-taxpayer mid-level exception) and Danuel House Jr. (bi-annual exception). Both played notable roles in their playoff run at times.

This year, the Sixers have another apron to keep in mind. The NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement introduces a second apron set $17.5 million above the luxury-tax line, which is projected to land at $179.5 million next season. Teams above that line will lose access to the taxpayer mid-level exception in free agency and will be far more limited in how much salary they can take back in trades beginning this offseason.

The Sixers already have $121.4 million in guaranteed salary on their books for next season. If Montrezl Harrell picks up his $2.8 million player option, the Sixers would be up to $124.2 million, leaving them only $55.3 million below the second apron before re-signing Harden or any of their other free agents (Paul Reed, Georges Niang, Shake Milton and Jalen McDaniels).

Signing Harden to his max salary ($46.9 million) would leave the Sixers with less than $9 million of wiggle room below the second apron. Re-signing any combination of Reed, Niang, Milton and/or McDaniels would likely send them soaring over that line, which would limit their ability to round out their roster.

If the Sixers do re-sign Harden to a max or near-max deal, they could look to trade Tobias Harris' $39.3 million expiring contract to help free up additional space under the second apron. But given Harden's age—he's turning 34 in August—and inconsistent play in the playoffs, a four-year max deal seems like a tough sell.

The Sixers could decide that they don't want to cross the second apron this summer and thus balk at offering Harden a max contract. They could also offer him a below-max contract that descends in value annually rather than ascends, which would give them more financial flexibility in the future as Harden progressed into his late 30s.

Harden single-handedly fueled two of the Sixers' three wins against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, but he also was a relative no-show in their losses in Games 6 and 7. He finished with only 22 points on 7-of-27 shooting and 10 turnovers between both games, and he was a minus-40 in his 84 minutes of court time.

"It's tough for him, we asked him to play a little different than he's always been accustomed to," then-Sixers head coach Doc Rivers said after Game 7. (The Sixers parted ways with Rivers two days later.) "I think it made us a better team. Unfortunately, I thought for James at times, it wasn't always best for him. But he still did it."

Harden finished the regular season averaging only 21.0 points per game, his fewest since before he joined the Rockets in 2012. However, he did lead the league with 10.7 assists per game, and he had one of the most accurate three-point shooting campaigns of his NBA career (38.5 percent).

That didn't earn Harden a spot on either the All-Star or All-NBA teams, as he took a back seat to Joel Embiid amidst his MVP campaign. After the Sixers swept the Brooklyn Nets in the first round of the playoffs, Harden said he deliberately made the choice to do so.

“I told myself this year, man, I’m gonna be willing to sacrifice,” he told reporters. “Whether it’s the money or my role, just letting everything go and just sacrificing and see what it gives me, you know?"

If Harden now wants "the basketball freedom" to be himself, as Haynes reported, the Sixers have to weigh whether that’s the right fit for them moving forward. The Embiid-Harden tandem worked masterfully throughout the regular season, but it sputtered against the Celtics in the playoffs, and the Sixers didn't have a counterpunch.

The version of Harden who showed up in Games 1 and 4 against the Celtics would be a no-brainer four-year max player, even at his age. However, he also shot below 30% from the field in six of his 11 playoff appearances while taking at least 11 shots in all of those games.

If the Rockets aren't willing to offer Harden a max, the Sixers should have a similar conversation with him about the second apron as they did last summer with the first (then-only) apron. However much less he'd be willing to take would give them some extra wiggle room and perhaps enable them to use the taxpayer MLE to round out their roster.

A four-year max offer doesn’t appear to be on the table for Harden this offseason either from the Rockets or the Sixers. Something in the four-year, $150-160 million range might even be a reach at this point. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said Wednesday on NBA Today that the Sixers “are not desperate” to re-sign him and “have other moves they can make” if he does walk.

Under the new CBA, every dollar will count. If the Sixers can’t convince Harden to sacrifice for the greater good of the team again, they might be no closer to a title even if they’re able to re-sign him.

Their final offer will likely depend on what Houston is willing to do, but above all else, they should aim to have Harden’s salary descend throughout the contract rather than increase. That should give them additional flexibility under the second apron in future seasons, which will be paramount as they try to build a championship contender around Embiid.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.