Here’s how to follow along with tonight’s presidential election—predicted by polls to be historically close—from when to look for key state results, to which counties could offer clues to the ultimate winner.
Stickers are displayed on a table on the first day of Virginia's in-person early voting at Long ... [+]
Forbes is tracking the biggest election updates from all trusted media sources here, and will monitor both the Harris and Trump paths to victory throughout the night as states are taken off the board.
The Associated Press and other outlets will call winners in each state on election night and beyond, but these projections are unofficial, and it could take weeks for the results to be formally certified.
As officials count the votes, results in most battlegrounds will be available on state websites (including at these sites for Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada), though county governments may publish results faster in some cases, and Wisconsin doesn’t have a statewide database at all.
The earliest states close their polls at 6 p.m. EST, and the last polls in Alaska shut down at 9 p.m. Alaska time (1 a.m. EST)—but the polls close in the seven swing states between 7 and 10 p.m., though count time will vary because of how they count mail-in ballots and early votes, which will likely cause red or blue “mirages” that fade as more votes are counted (see our key state guide below on how to follow).
The likely first big result will be Georgia, after polls close at 7 p.m. EST —though it might not be immediate (again, see our timeline below).
At some point after 5 p.m. EST, the TV networks will start releasing tidbits from exit polls. A group of four networks—CNN, NBC, ABC and CBS—pool their resources to interview voters as they leave Election Day precincts, data that’s supplemented by surveys of mail voters. The AP gets similar data through a separate polling process.
Reputable outlets won’t report which candidate is leading in exit polls until a state’s precincts close, but data on how Harris and Trump are doing with different demographic groups could start to come out after 5 p.m. This is worth watching since it could offer an early reality check on some of the narratives that have shaped the race:
Be careful, though: Exit polling data can be imprecise.
Georgia’s 16 electoral votes are a major early prize, as Trump aims to retake the GOP-leaning state after losing it in 2020. Georgia is the first swing state to close its precincts, and it should be among the fastest to count its ballots due to legal changes since 2020. Counties must report their early and mail-in vote tallies by 8 p.m., and most Election Day ballots will reportedly be counted by midnight. Since the first tallies will be heavy on Democratic-leaning mail-in ballots, a “blue mirage” is possible early on, with more GOP ballots pouring in later.
The race could come down to metro Atlanta. It’s worth watching a handful of suburban Atlanta counties that have diversified and rapidly moved left. In 2020, Joe Biden won these three counties with the following percentages:
Trump, meanwhile, won these exurban counties in 2020, though by smaller margins than in 2016:
Any major shifts in those figures could prove pivotal. Also, to watch: For Harris’ performance with rural Black voters, analyst Lakshya Jain recommends keeping tabs on Baldwin and Washington counties (which Biden won with 50.1% and 50%), and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution suggests Peach County (Trump won with 51.8%).
Follow along at the Georgia Secretary of State’s website here.
Stickers at Atlanta Metropolitan State College on October 15, in Atlanta, Georgia.
North Carolina, which hasn’t gone to a Democrat since 2008, is close to a must-win for Trump—if Harris wins the state’s 16 votes, her odds of clinching the election shoot above 90%, according to statistician Nate Silver. It tends to count quickly: The state expects mail-in results to start coming out shortly after polls close at 7:30 p.m. EST, followed by early ballots starting 30 to 60 minutes later, and Election Day results from 8:30 p.m. to 1 a.m. By the end of the night, state officials think 98% of ballots will be tallied, though some votes from counties impacted by Hurricane Helene may face delays. The rapid counting of mail ballots could create a misleading “blue mirage” early in the night, and the numbers may become redder later on.
The state’s two most populous counties are key sources of Democratic votes that have quickly shifted left in recent years, and are worth watching on election night:
Some analysts also suggest monitoring two rapidly changing counties outside Charlotte that backed Trump in 2020, but by far smaller margins than 2016:
Trump will try to boost his margins in increasingly conservative rural areas like Robeson County (he won 58.9% in 2020). And Nash and New Hanover counties flipped from Trump to Biden in 2020 (giving Biden 49.6% and 50.2% of the vote, respectively).
Follow the North Carolina Secretary of State’s data dashboard here.
Pennsylvania—part of the blue wall—is the largest swing state with 19 electors, and it’s a virtual must-win. Harris has a nearly 91% chance of winning the race if she secures Pennsylvania, while Trump has a more than 87% chance, Silver estimates. Polls close at 8 p.m. EST, but there’s a good chance the winner won’t be clear on election night since poll workers can’t start processing mail ballots until early Tuesday morning—though new machinery could speed up counting from 2020, when the AP took more than three days to call the race. The early tallies will be deceiving and could feature both blue and red mirages: The first results may look heavily Democratic as counties report their mail ballots that have been processed first, but they’ll swing in the GOP’s favor as Election Day votes are mixed in, and may swing back toward Democrats as the final mail ballots are counted.
The increasingly blue suburban “collar counties” near Philadelphia are important to watch, all of which Biden won in 2020:
More leftward shifts in those counties—or a move in Trump’s favor—could be worth tens of thousands of votes for either candidate. Philadelphia will easily go to Harris, but she’s fighting to keep her margins up and get Black and Latino voters to turn out (Biden won 81.4% of the city).
Trump is pushing for bigger margins in fairly rural counties like Cambria (he won 68.1% last time). Also keep an eye on who wins two swing counties that shifted to Biden in 2020:
Follow results on the Pennsylvania state site here.
Kamala Harris and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro speak to the press while making a stop at the ... [+]
The second “blue wall” state that flipped back in 2020, Michigan is a key bulwark for Harris. If Trump takes back its 15 electors, his odds of winning shoot up to around 93%, according to Silver. Most polls close at 8 p.m. EST, but some western areas close at 9 p.m., and the AP won’t call a winner until they are counted. Unlike in 2020, local officials can process mail ballots in advance, making for a quicker count: Detroit aims to start releasing results at 9 p.m. and wrap up by midnight—though Warren, a major Detroit suburb, could lag behind since it chose not to get a jump on counting ballots. State officials expect results by the end of Wednesday if not sooner.
As in other states, keep a close eye on the Detroit suburbs:
Wayne County—home to Detroit and some suburbs—heavily favors Democrats, but if turnout lags or Harris loses some Black or Arab American voters, it could be seismic since it’s a key source of votes (Biden won it with 68.4%).
It’s also worth watching the winners of two swing counties that shifted to the Democrats’ column four years ago:
Follow along on the Michigan Secretary of State’s dashboard here.
"I Voted" and "Every Vote Matters" stickers sit on the table at an early voting polling location at ... [+]
This state’s 10 electors will make or break whether Harris can win solely with the northern battlegrounds—and it's bound to be close, with margins of just over 20,000 deciding the last two races. Polls close at 9 p.m. EST, but counties can't start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day, so counting will probably take awhile, even if it's slightly faster than 2020's all-nighter. The city of Milwaukee doesn't expect to have all its results in until after 1 a.m. EST., and results across Wisconsin could take until Wednesday morning, one state election official predicts.
The most important counties to watch are the state's three largest, which moved in Biden’s favor in 2020 partly due to suburban shifts, helping to power his statewide win:
This year could hinge on whether Harris maintains those trends—or if Trump cuts into Harris’ urban leads while halting suburban erosion in places like Waukesha.
Meanwhile, Trump will look to industrial places like Racine County (he won 51.2% in 2020). Strength in rural areas is also key for Trump: To monitor, watch Sauk County, a bellwether that's picked the national winner every year since 2008 (Biden won 50% in 2020).
County-level results will be updated on the pages linked above, and statewide results will be compiled by the AP here.
Biden narrowly won this once-red state’s 11 electors in 2020, though most polls suggest it could revert back to Trump. Counting should be slow: The state will report an early tranche of likely Democratic-leaning mail ballots starting at 10 p.m. EST, followed by Election Day votes, and then it’ll move on to “late early” ballots that arrived in the mail right before or on Tuesday. Maricopa County, home to Phoenix and most of the state’s residents, expects counting to take 10 to 13 days, with results posted daily—though it’s possible a winner will be projected before then, as in 2020.
Naturally, the most important county is Maricopa (Biden won 50.3% in 2020, after Trump won with 47.7% in 2016). Also keep an eye out for Tucson's Pima County (Biden won 58.6%)
Trump’s efforts to win over more Latino voters—who still overwhelmingly back Harris but by smaller margins than in prior elections—could be a key feature in the races in Arizona and Nevada. Exit polls could offer some insight: Trump won 37% of Arizona Latino voters in 2020.
Arizona will post its statewide results here.
Donald Trump invites Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake on stage during a campaign rally at Findlay ... [+]
This state gave Biden its six electors in 2020, and while it’s unlikely to be pivotal this year, polls are razor-thin. Results may take awhile: Nevada is the only swing state that accepts mail ballots after Tuesday, meaning a tight race could take days as votes trickle in. Counties can start releasing results after the last person in line has voted, which could take hours. However, tallying may not take as long as 2020 since officials can process votes ahead of time.
Some two-thirds of Nevada’s population lives in Clark County, home to Las Vegas, making that the most important locale to watch (Biden won 53.7% in 2020). Washoe County—home to Reno—is also an important bellwether (Biden won 50.8%).
Trump’s efforts to win more Latino voters could be a major dynamic here, so watch for exit polls. Trump won 35% of the state’s Latino voters four years ago.
Follow along with Nevada’s results here.
Las Vegas Strip-themed "I Voted" stickers on the first day of in-person early voting at Desert ... [+]