The U.S. economy expanded at a weaker pace than anticipated in the final stretch of 2024, according to gross domestic product data reported by the government Thursday, as the economy continues to dodge the recession long feared stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic.
After entering a technical recession in 2022, the U.S. economy has proven resilient even amid high ... [+]
Real GDP rose 2.3% from 2024’s third to fourth quarter at an annualized rate, according to a first estimate of the inflation-adjusted metric shared Thursday morning by the Commerce Department.
Economists had anticipated 2.5% real GDP growth, according to consensus forecasts compiled by FactSet.
It’s the weakest Q4 annualized GDP growth since 2018’s 0.6%.
Real GDP grew by 2.8% from 2023 to 2024, below 2023’s 2.9% but well in line with healthy economic growth.
GDP measures the gross value of all goods and services produced in an economy in a given timeframe. The U.S. smashed widespread expectations for a 2024 slowdown, as the Federal Reserve’s median forecast for 2024 GDP in Dec. 2023 called for just 1.4% year-over-year growth. The solid expansion defied typically challenging growth conditions as interest rates hovered at their highest levels since the mid-2000s, and confirmed the U.S. had avoided the high-rate recession many feared. The U.S. entered a technical recession briefly in both 2020 and 2022 when the economy registered negative quarter-over-quarter GDP growth, before bouncing back as strong consumer spending, productivity growth and a stable labor market buoyed the economy. Goldman Sachs economists forecast similar 2.5% annual real GDP growth in 2025, citing President Donald Trump’s policies of lighter regulation and lower corporate taxes as boosts to business activity while warning about lower growth if Trump’s tariffs cause a full-fledged “trade war.”