The northern lights may be visible in the northernmost states Monday night as the aurora borealis forecast continues to strengthen this week, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The northern lights forecast may strengthen this week. (Photo by Owen Humphreys/PA Images via Getty ... [+]
The NOAA projected Monday night’s northern lights will have a Kp index of 4, which is measured on a scale of 0 to 9, indicating heightened auroral activity that can be “quite pleasing to look at” in the right areas.
No geomagnetic storms, which can increase visibility of the northern lights, are projected in NOAA's three-day forecast, though the agency reported a strong X2.2 solar flare last week that threatened radio blackouts.
Radio blackouts are still possible this week, NOAA says, with a 40% chance for minor to moderate blackouts Monday.
Alaskans will have the best shot at seeing the northern lights Monday, as most of the state is forecasted to have a high chance of an aurora appearance (see below). Other states with a lower likelihood of seeing the aurora include northern parts of Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin. States included along the aurora’s view line include Washington, Idaho, South Dakota and Maine, according to the NOAA forecast, indicating the lowest likelihood of northern lights visibility.
The NOAA's forecasted northern lights view line for Monday night.
The forecast could strengthen later this week. According to NOAA’s three-day forecast, Tuesday’s Kp index is even stronger, with a projected peak index of 4.33. The forecast dips down to a Kp index of 2.67 by Wednesday.
The lights are most visible when it is dark at night, typically between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time, according to NOAA. The agency recommends avoiding light pollution, traveling as far north as possible and finding a high vantage point.
The lights can be photographed with a smartphone, and National Geographic recommends using a tripod, a lower shutter speed, a wide-angle lens and night mode, if using an iPhone.
The northern lights have made regular appearances in American skies this year because the current solar cycle is in a period of heightened geomagnetic activity. The solar cycle is experiencing its “solar maximum,” according to NASA, meaning the sun is at about the midpoint of its 11-year-cycle in which it is more prone to geomagnetic storms. This year, the sun has produced some of the strongest solar storms in decades and produced what NASA estimates are the strongest auroras in centuries. Among the most notable solar events this year was the strongest solar flare of the solar cycle on Oct. 3, measured at X9.0, leading to auroras with a Kp index as high as 7.
NASA, NOAA: Sun Reaches Maximum Phase in 11-Year Solar Cycle (NASA)
How to photograph the Northern Lights, according to an expert (National Geographic)