Some of the northernmost states may be able to catch a glimpse of the aurora borealis Monday night, days after a geomagnetic storm pulled the northern lights further south, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s forecast, though a potentially stronger forecast for Tuesday looms.
The northern lights captured in Alaska on Nov. 9. (Photo by Hasan Akbas/Anadolu via Getty Images)
NOAA projected Monday night’s aurora borealis will have a Kp index of 3—which is measured on a scale of 0 to 9—indicating potentially heightened auroral activity away from the poles that can be “quite pleasing to look at.”
No geomagnetic storms are expected in the coming days, according to the NOAA’s three-day forecast, though moderate geomagnetic storms were observed over the weekend and a strong solar flare erupted from the sun last week.
The forecast is expected to strengthen to a Kp index of 4 Tuesday night, during which slightly more of the United States may be able to view the aurora, according to NOAA’s forecast.
Alaskans will have the best chance to view the northern lights, as nearly the entire state falls within NOAA’s predicted range for aurora borealis visibility (see below). Other states with a lower chance of viewing the aurora include the northern parts of Montana, North Dakota and Minnesota. States that fall within the aurora’s “view line,” with a smaller chance to catch the lights, include parts of Washington, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Monday night's northern lights forecast.
The lights are best seen when it is dark at night between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time, according to NOAA. The agency recommends avoiding light pollution, traveling as far north as possible and finding a high vantage point.
The lights can be photographed with a smartphone and can be best captured without flash, a lower shutter speed and by using night mode, if using an iPhone.
The northern lights have been visible in recent months because the sun’s solar cycle is at a “solar maximum,” according to NASA, which means the sun is experiencing heightened activity. The sun is predicted to be at the midpoint of its 11-year cycle, during which geomagnetic storms are more common. The solar maximum is expected to continue throughout the next year, NASA says. Geomagnetic storms observed earlier this year were the strongest in decades and produced what NASA estimates were the strongest auroras in 500 years. Solar activity during the current solar cycle has so far exceeded scientists’ projections.
NASA, NOAA: Sun Reaches Maximum Phase in 11-Year Solar Cycle (NASA)