Rugby does not really register on the American radar. As the Labor Day weekend comes to a close here in the U.S. most American sports fans are enjoying the beginning of College Football, the early days of the Premier League season, the business end of the Major League Baseball season or are anticipating the start of the NFL. But internationally, the epicenter of global sports has made a rapid shift from Australia and New Zealand to France. Almost a month after Spain toppled England in the FIFA Women’s World Cup final, France and New Zealand are about to do battle in the opening test match of the 2023 Rugby World Cup.

Halfway around the world, Kiwi YouTuber Two Cents Rugby (real name Mark) is ready with his trusty white board and marker to preview and review every game of the tournament. Rugby Union is the national sport in New Zealand, so it is no surprise that Mark - who analyzes game data, writes for Planet Rugby and does collaboration videos with other YouTubers - describes himself as “pretty pumped” ahead of the World Cup. He says this tournament has a different feeling to the one four years ago, where hosts Japan were “plucky underdogs.” He expects this World Cup to be special because it is in France, and French rugby is arguably in the best position it has ever been in.

In a pool that looks fairly straightforward, the opening game of the tournament will be hugely interesting. Two Cents says “it’s a weird one,” because France and New Zealand will both make the knockout stage - sorry Italy, Uruguay and Namibia fans - but the way they get there will be telling.

The All Blacks have never lost a pool match at a World Cup, so if they lose to France on the opening night, another record will go tumbling down on head coach Ian Foster’s watch. Mark says that realistically it’s “probably not the end of the world” if New Zealand loses the opening test, but it will be massive news back home if they do. On the other hand, Two Cents thinks the French losing might cause the team to lose a little steam, but he expects the fans “to be rabid no matter what,” especially if the hosts go far in the tournament.

Fans don’t have to wait long to find out what will happen, with the opening game airing on Peacock in the U.S. at 3PM ET on Friday.

Expectations are always sky high in New Zealand. The All Blacks boast the best historic winning percentage of any rugby nation. But this team has been through some pretty tough lows in the past few years. Under Ian Foster, the All Blacks lost a best of three series at home to Ireland for the first time ever. They lost to Argentina for the first time ever, and then lost to them again, this time on home soil. Despite winning this year’s Rugby Championship, the All Blacks’ last preparation match before the World Cup was a 35-7 mauling at the hands of South Africa - the All Blacks worst-ever defeat. So what are Mark’s expectations for his nation?

He says, “it wouldn’t surprise me if we don’t win the World Cup.” He notes that not going into the tournament ranked number one in the world, or as betting favorites may take some pressure off, but it is an odd feeling from a Kiwi perspective. Traditionally, the All Blacks have entered every World Cup as favorites or co-favorites, winning the World Cup three times, most recently in 2015. Now he says All Blacks fans look at games against South Africa, France and Ireland and consider the outcome a coin toss, where before victory was usually a certainty.

What is certain in Mark’s eyes is that if the All Blacks don’t manage to win, Ian Foster will go down as one of the worst coaches in New Zealand history. Such are the expectations from the Kiwi public. He also says, most people will enjoy watching the All Blacks lose, and acknowledges that the lack of Kiwi hegemony is probably better for the game.

Across the Tasman Sea, Two Cents’s neighbors Australia have had a strange preparation for this World Cup. In mid-January it was announced that the Wallabies were firing Dave Rennie and replacing him with maverick coach Eddie Jones. Since his appointment, Jones has proceeded to clear out the teams and replace familiar faces with young blood. Two Cents sees this as Jones’s way of saying “what we tried before hasn’t been working, so we’ve got to try something new.”

The hard taskmaster is known to be ruthless with players and a relentless driver of standards. Mark says Jones is very divisive in the rugby community, but still carries some mystique. Some fans - and players - are rubbed the wrong way by Eddie, and some fans think his dismal exit from England was him finally being found out as a coach.

Two Cents thinks his Tasman neighbors need to make the quarter-finals, otherwise the decision to ditch Rennie for Eddie will look foolish. He also notes that it doesn’t seem like the best time to throw lots of young players into the deep end, but thinks that Eddie probably wants a young, moldable squad that he can bend to his will. It’s safe to say that Jones has lots of people rooting for him to fail, but most rugby fans are just enjoying watching the Wallabies experiment.

Two Cents is known for crunching the numbers when it comes to minutes played, winning percentage and any need-to-know team and player data. Going into a World Cup, squad depth is pivotal information. Having looked at the numbers over the past few weeks, Mark concludes that the Irish team is probably the deepest. He puts this down to Head coach Andy Farrell’s consistent selection over the four-year cycle leading up to this World Cup. Two Cents notes that Farrell hasn’t picked any “bolters” - unexpected players who came out of nowhere - and thus the squad has the depth in all the right areas. Although the absence of captain Johnny Sexton during the warm-up matches could may create some rust.

The other powerhouse squads are the usual names, France, South Africa and New Zealand all have good depth according to Mark. He notes that South Africa’s squad is mostly made up of the winners from four years ago. The Springboks hope experience and a brutal forward pack can carry them to another title. Meanwhile, hosts France have built depth over the past four years by picking their best players in the annual 6 Nations tournament, while sending a B side on the summer tours to gain experience.

In the warm-up matches leading up to the tournament the major talk has been about injuries and red cards. Luckily only a few major injuries were suffered - spare a thought for Romain N’tamack, France’s number 10 who will be missing the tournament with a torn ACL. On the other hand, there have been red cards aplenty, with upright tackles and contact to the head being the main cause. Two Cents sees this continuing. He “definitely thinks we will see more red cards throughout the tournament.” But unlike other fans who complain these ruin the game, Mark says you can’t blame World Rugby for trying to safeguard players from concussions.

His two cents are that teams and players with a reputation for high tackling - Owen Farrell and Tomas Lavinini for example - will need to be extremely careful. Leaving your teams at the mercy of the referee could be a death sentence in this world Cup, and he particularly points out the Wallabies’ poor disciplinary record.

With the increase in concussion prevention has come players milking injuries. Two Cents says to watch out for players trying to get others in trouble by holding their heads and making sure that the Television Match Official (TMO) checks the replay for a potential red card.

From a more tactical perspective Mark anticipates some shuffling of the traditional approach. Hybrid players are now in vogue, and that could mean a forward who can play as a back, like French player Sekou Macalou, or a player who can cover multiple positions in a pinch, like Cheslin Kolbe playing wing, scrum half or fly half. There is also the potential for coaches to experiment with their benches, as the Springboks did in their last warm-up match, employing a 7-1 split, seven forwards and just one back. It will be interesting to see the tactical nuances employed by different nations.

Two Cents says the team to watch is undoubtedly Fiji. The Pacific Islanders are rugby’s best entertainers. They have a knack for playing running rugby from anywhere on the field and have never been in as good of a position to get out of, or even top their pool. Mark notes that most rugby fans think of Fiji as their second team and will be hoping they do well. He also says that given the cohesion the group has - thanks in large part to the new Fijian Drua Super Rugby team - and the incredible natural skill set he sees “no reason why they can’t top their pool.”

His back to watch is Antoine Dupont. No surprise here, Mark describes him as “a generational talent who is in peak condition and playing at a home World Cup.” He says fans should just appreciate what he can do, even if you are rooting against France. Luckily fans will likely see his talents quite consistently as he tends to play the 80 minutes in most games.

An astute watcher of southern hemisphere rugby, Two Cents says Malcolm Marx is the forward to watch. South Africa’s hooker is a beast at the breakdown, he throws a good lineout ball and is a dominant ball carrier. According to Two Cents, “at times he has looked like the world’s best player.” It is a shame that fans only get to see him play 40-50 minutes each game, thanks to the Springboks’ rotational forward pack.

Most fans agree that Pool B at this Rugby World Cup is the pool of death. It contains the number one, two and five sides in the world. As such, one of the best teams in the world will be going home quite early. Mark says pretty unequivocally that Scotland will be headed home before the knockout stage, despite the fact that they score a boatload of tries and are extremely exciting to watch. He says “it sucks” to have the five best teams in the world on the same side of the draw, and will be pretty sad if Scotland does go home early.

Two Cents says that last World Cup he did three different prediction videos based on different metrics and none of them were correct. So don’t bet on his pick, but he believes France has the best chance of winning this tournament. According to him, it gives him the same feeling as the 2011 tournament when the hosts, New Zealand, won the tournament in their own backyard after underperforming for a while.

France have hit their stride under head coach Fabien Galthié and finally have the winning mentality needed to conquer rugby’s most cherished trophy. Mark notes that winning the 6 Nations Grand Slam title two years ago was probably the step up this group needed. He says they showed they can cope with the mental pressure needed to win.

His dark horse, however, is Argentina. Los Pumas tend to perform well at World Cups and have been building steadily under the guidance of Australian coach Michael Cheika. Two Cents’s only concern is that they may not have the depth to make it to the final and actually win. Only time will tell, but fans should tune in to the madness and see who comes out champion of the world in one of the most physically demanding sports on the planet.