Nasdaq rose 5.2% in the first half of 2025 — a far cry from the first half of 2024’s 18% increase
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In the first half of 2025, stock market indices barely budged — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq inched up 5,2% as of June 27.
The first half of 2024 was much more profitable for investors as the S&P 500 rose 14% and the Nasdaq rose 18%.
In 2025, tariff concerns, slower economic growth, high market volatility and slower rate cuts also tamped down stock averages.
The market averages did relatively poorly in the first half of 2025 compared to the year before.
The DJIA was up 3.4% — compared to a 4% for the first half of 2024; the S&P 500 (+5.2%) vs. 14% in the first half of 2024; and Nasdaq (+5.2%) vs. 18% in the first half of 2024, according to Google Finance.
The lower growth of the Nasdaq in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024 is likely due to slower economic growth and more uncertainty, much higher volatility and a shift away from the U.S., and less aggressive rate cuts.
These stock-unfriendly conditions contrast sharply with last years’ generative AI frenzy, about which I wrote in Brain Rush, relatively strong corporate earnings, and investor expectations for rate cuts.
Top performing S&P 500 stocks benefited from changes in government policy which in some cases included government contracts.
The biggest S&P 500 losers in the first half suffered from a drop in consumer spending related to tariff increases and economic uncertainty along with government health care policy changes.
The three biggest losers include:
Companies such as Palantir and Oracle that the Trump administration favors —SFGate reports both were co-sponsors of Trump’s military birthday parade — could enjoy a continued rise in their stock prices as companies vulnerable to tariffs and changing health care policies continue to tank.