Vice President Kamala Harris beats former President Donald Trump in three surveys taken after the Democratic National Convention, adding to her winning polling streak, though the size of her lead remains unchanged since before the convention.
Vice President Kamala Harris delivers a speech at the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 22. ... [+]
Harris led Trump by two points—47%-45%—in the latest Economist/YouGov poll taken Sunday through Tuesday, which allowed registered voters to pick independents Jill Stein and Cornell West, roughly similar to Harris’ three-point advantage about a week earlier and her two-point lead two weeks ago (the most recent poll had 1,367 respondents, margin of error 3.2).
Harris is up by one point among registered voters, 47% to 46% with 4% undecided and 2% who wouldn’t vote, in an Aug. 22-26 Yahoo News/YouGov online survey of around 1,200 people (margin of error 3)—figures virtually unchanged from the 46%-46% tie between Harris and Trump in a survey by the same pollsters conducted after the Republican National Convention, but before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.
Harris leads Trump by a larger margin—48% to 44%—in an Aug. 23-25 Morning Consult survey of registered voters, findings that mirror the group’s Aug. 16-18 survey taken before the Democratic National Convention, which concluded Thursday in Chicago.
The surveys are the latest to show a shift in Democrats’ favor since Harris’ entrance into the race last month.
Harris led Trump 49% to 45% among registered voters and 51% to 45% among likely voters in a poll by Ipsos, ABC News and The Washington Post released Aug. 18.
In a CBS and YouGov poll, also released Aug. 18, Harris had a three-point edge over Trump among likely voters (51% to 48%), though the candidates were tied at 50% in battleground states.
Harris leads 50% to 46% in an Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters released Aug. 15.
Just one major poll in recent weeks, taken by Fox News and released Aug. 15, found Trump leading, 50% to 49% among registered voters.
1.7. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Harris with a 3.4-point lead.
Trump led Harris in at least eight other polls after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, but most show Harris denting Trump’s lead over Biden and her approval rating ticking up since she announced her candidacy. Trump led Harris by one point (48% to 47%) in a New York Times/Siena poll conducted July 22-24, two points (49% to 47%) in a July 23-25 Wall Street Journal poll and by two points (47% to 45%) in a HarrisX/Forbes online survey released June 26.
A Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14 found Democratic enthusiasm has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%.
Harris leads Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a Cook Political Report survey. Harris leads Trump in five of the seven states, is tied with him in Georgia and is trailing Trump by three points in Nevada, the Cook poll found.
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a “short term” bump in polls for Harris in the coming weeks as her entrance into the race is expected to reenergize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a “Harris Honeymoon” in a memo released shortly after the Reuters/Ipsos poll was made public.
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party has quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call prior to the convention. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president at the start of the Republican National Convention on July 18. Democrats held their convention July 19-22 in Chicago.
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