Vice President Kamala Harris is up four points over former President Donald Trump in the first major survey taken after the Democratic National Convention—consistent with her standing before the DNC.
Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz at a rally in Las Vegas on Saturday, Aug. ... [+]
Harris leads Trump 48% to 44% in an Aug. 23-25 Morning Consult survey, findings that mirror the group’s Aug. 16-18 survey taken before the Democratic National Convention, which concluded Thursday in Chicago.
The survey is the latest to show a shift in Democrats’ favor since Harris’ entrance into the race—Harris had a three-point advantage over Trump (46%-43%) in an Economist/YouGov poll of registered voters taken Aug. 17-20 and released Wednesday, roughly similar to Harris’s 46%-44% lead about a week earlier.
Harris led Trump 49% to 45% among registered voters and 51% to 45% among likely voters in a poll by Ipsos, ABC News and The Washington Post released Aug. 18.
In a CBS and YouGov poll, also released Aug. 18, Harris had a three-point edge over Trump among likely voters (51% to 48%), though the candidates were tied at 50% in battleground states.
Harris leads 50% to 46% in an Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters released Aug. 15.
Just one major poll in the last two weeks, taken by Fox News and released Aug. 15, found Trump leading, 50% to 49% among registered voters.
Trump leads Harris in at least eight other polls since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, but most show Harris denting Trump’s lead over Biden and her approval rating ticking up since she announced her candidacy.
Trump led Harris by one point (48% to 47%) in a New York Times/Siena poll conducted July 22-24, two points (49% to 47%) in a July 23-25 Wall Street Journal poll and by two points (47% to 45%) in a HarrisX/Forbes online survey released June 26.
1.5. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Harris with a 3.5-point lead.
A Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14 found Democratic enthusiasm has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%.
Harris leads Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a Cook Political Report survey. Harris leads Trump in five of the seven states, is tied with him in Georgia and is trailing Trump by three points in Nevada, the Cook poll found.
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a “short term” bump in polls for Harris in the coming weeks as her entrance into the race is expected to reenergize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a “Harris Honeymoon” in a memo released shortly after the Reuters/Ipsos poll was made public.
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party has quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call prior to the convention. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president at the start of the Republican National Convention on July 18. Democrats held their convention July 18-22 in Chicago.
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