Topline
Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to go into effect on August 1 after a 90-day delay—just as American families begin back-to-school shopping—and could hike up the cost of consumer goods imported from other countries.
Back-to-school shoppers could see higher prices on new clothing, shoes, and computers.
Price increases due to tariffs could cost households on average an extra $2,700 in 2025, the Yale Budget Lab predicted in their most recent analysis published after the Trump administration announced trade deals with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines this week.
The tariffs set to begin in August are the reciprocal tariffs Trump first announced during his April “Liberation Day” event, which have been repeatedly delayed in the months since.
The Trump administration has been rolling out new tariff rates for individual countries as they try to negotiate trade deals.
Major U.S. trade partners will face significant tariff rates, including a 35% tariff on Canadian imports and a 30% tariff on the European Union.
Ernie Tedeschi, Yale Budget Lab’s director of economics, told Forbes: “The back to school experience I think is going to be particularly exposed to tariffs this year,” noting many of the goods parents and students want are imported from countries facing relatively higher tariffs like China.
Trump suggested tariff rates would not go below 15%, telling the crowd at an AI summit Wednesday that countries would face a “straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,” reserving the higher rates for countries “we haven’t been getting along…too well.”
“These tariffs are more likely to impact low income families,” Tedeschi said. “This is one of the reasons why tariffs are what we call a regressive tax, a tax that hurts lower income families more than higher income families. It’s not just that lower income families spend a greater share of their income, it’s that they are more likely to buy imports from the countries that are being tariffed more heavily here, in particular China.”
The Yale Budget Lab breaks down the projected price increases from tariffs to price increases in the immediate future and prices in five to 10 years’ time, “after consumers and businesses have time to substitute for other things, and production worldwide has a chance to shift and reoptimize around the tariffs,” Tedeschi said. This reoptimization could include businesses reshoring production to America or shifting production to countries with lower tariff rates.
$2.9 trillion. That’s how much Trump’s tariffs are expected to raise in the next decade, according to the Budget Lab. The Tax Foundation made a similar projection last week, predicting that the levies would raise $2.5 trillion assuming all of his levies stand up to court challenges.
One week after rolling out the new tariff regime on “Liberation Day,” the Trump administration announced a 90 day pause on their enactment, giving individual nations time to negotiate new trade deals with the U.S. and promising “90 deals in 90 days.” However, during the three-month pause the administration only secured trade deals with three nations—China, Vietnam, and the U.K., prompting Trump to push the deadline back again. In the weeks since the second pause, Trump has announced more major deals with key trade partners—most recently with Japan, who negotiated down a 25% tariff announced in April to 15%.