Former President Donald Trump would beat President Joe Biden in all seven swing states if the election were held today, according to a new survey—the latest to show Trump with an edge less than six months before the November election, despite his felony convictions in Manhattan earlier this month.
Former President Donald Trump speaks during a rally at Festival Park on June 18, 2024 in Racine, ... [+]
Trump would beat Biden 37% to 35% overall in the seven swing states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada), according to the Ipsos poll released Thursday, which breaks down the results by region and gave voters the option of choosing Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (6%), another candidate (4%), not voting (4%) or undecided (15%).
In a head-to-head matchup, with the option to skip the question, Trump would beat Biden 48% to 43%, according to the survey of 2,453 adults conducted June 4-12 (margin of error 2.5).
In a two-way race, Trump leads Biden by seven points in the Southeast (Georgia and North Carolina) and by 10 points in the Midwest (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), but trails Biden by 12 points in the Southwest (Arizona and Nevada).
A plurality of voters in all three regions said inflation and increasing costs is the most important issue facing the country, followed by immigration.
The survey is the latest to show Trump with an advantage in the seven crucial swing states (six of which Biden won in 2020, with the exception of North Carolina) that will likely determine who wins the November election—according to Real Clear Politics’ polling averages, Trump leads Biden in all seven states.
0.5. That’s how many percentage points Trump leads Biden by nationally, according to RCP’s average, as the number of polls that show Biden winning have increased somewhat since Trump’s conviction in Manhattan last month, including Morning Consult’s weekly surveys that showed Biden ahead for the past two weeks in a row after trailing Trump for a month.
Trump and Biden will debate for the first time this election cycle next Thursday on CNN.
Trump leads Biden by the widest margin, 5.3 points, of the seven swing states in Nevada, and the narrowest, by 0.1 points, in Wisconsin, according to RCP. Biden’s campaign has sought to capitalize on Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records by airing a major swing state ad campaign earlier this week dubbing him a “convicted criminal,” while the president and his campaign surrogates have repeatedly used the phrase “convicted felon” to refer to Trump. Biden, meanwhile, has been dogged by a series of unflattering videos in recent weeks that appear to show him looking confused in public, as Trump and his allies have used the footage to play up concerns that Biden is too old to serve another term. Immigration is another key issue in the campaign, as border crossings reached a record high under Biden, who announced earlier this month a new higher standard for asylum applicants at the border in an effort to tamp down on illegal crossings. Biden earlier this week also unveiled a plan to lift legal barriers for undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens that is expected to grant amnesty to an estimated 550,000 migrants living in the U.S. illegally.
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