Early voting is underway in almost every state across the country less than two weeks before Election Day—and while there’s no consensus on who is ahead among early voters so far, Republicans are cutting into Democrats’ early voting advantage.
Voting signs are displayed near the entrance of the Millennium Youth Complex on Monday in Austin, ... [+]
Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump among early voters, according to two new polls, including a Forbes/HarrisX survey released Wednesday that found her ahead 60% to 33% and a USA Today/Suffolk University poll that shows her leading 63% to 34%.
However, Trump leads 52% to 35% among those who plan to vote on Election Day in the USA Today/Suffolk poll.
More than 18.5 million voters, including more than 9.3 million Democrats and 7.8 million Republicans, have voted early as of Oct. 23, according to data-collection firm TargetSmart (not all states report party breakdown in early voting totals), compared to the 39.8 million who had voted early as of two weeks before Election Day in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic deterred in-person voting.
The higher numbers of Democrats voting early doesn’t necessarily equate to an advantage for Harris, as Democrats are typically more supportive of early voting than Republicans—a gap that’s widened in recent years as Trump falsely claimed widespread fraud in mail-in voting in the wake of his 2020 loss, though he has since reversed course and urged his supporters to vote in any way possible.
Trump’s early voting push appears to be working, as the data show fewer Democrats and more Republicans are voting early than in 2020.
Of the 25 states that track and report party registration among early voters, 43% of early voters are Democrats and 35% are Republicans as of Wednesday, according to University of Florida Election Lab data.
In 2020, 53% of early voters were Democrats and 25% were Republicans in the 17 states that year that tracked and reported party affiliation at the time, according to Florida Election Lab data for the week ending Oct. 18, 2020—16 days before the election.
More than double the number of Republicans (52%) have voted early in Nevada compared to Democrats (27%), according to data from the secretary of state’s office for the first four days of early voting, ending Tuesday.
More Republicans have also voted early in the battleground states of Arizona, North Carolina and Pennsylvania than at this point in 2020, CNN reported, citing figures from Catalist data firm, election officials and Edison Research.
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One sign that could be a positive indicator for Democrats is the number of newly registered voters since 2022: 49% of the 17.82 million are Democrats, 34% are Republicans and 17% are unaffiliated with either party, CBS reported last Wednesday, citing TargetSmart data. Enthusiasm for voting has also surged among Democrats since Harris’ entrance into the race, ticking up from 55% who said they were more enthusiastic about voting than usual in March to 78% in August, according to Gallup, while enthusiasm among Republicans increased slightly during that time, from 59% to 64%.
“Polls will tell us how people are going to vote, but not who’s going to vote,” TargetSmart Senior Adviser Tom Bonier warned to CBS, adding that early voting data is “not going to tell us who is going to win, but it’s good breadcrumbs.”
More than 1.5 million voters cast early ballots in Georgia on the first two days of early voting last week, beginning Tuesday, breaking in-person records. As of Wednesday morning, more than 312,000 people had voted by absentee ballot and more than 1.9 million had voted in person, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office. North Carolina voters also broke the state’s record on the first day of early voting Thursday, when 353,166 ballots were cast, according to the State Board of Elections, despite concerns the devastation from Hurricane Helene would hinder poll access. Thursday’s figures topped the previous record set in 2020 by 1.3%.
46%. That’s the share of voters polled by Gallup in September who said they have already voted or plan to vote early in the 2024 election, including 46% of Democrats, 43% of independent voters and 31% of Republicans. The share of early-voting Democrats has ticked up slightly since 2016, from 44%, while the share of independents has climbed from 35% and Republican participation in early voting has dropped from 42%.
Trump and Harris head into Election Day in a dead-heat contest, with polls showing a virtual tie between the two, including in the seven swing states likely to decide the election. Trump leads in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, while Harris is ahead in Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is tied, according to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, though neither candidate is leading in any battleground state by more than two points.
Trump and his allies are gearing up to contest the results of the election if he loses, which Trump has claimed could only happen if Democrats cheat. Trump has also said he will only accept the results of the election if it is “fair and legal and a good election,” leaving open the possibility he could claim malfeasance if he loses. Republicans have already filed dozens of voting rights lawsuits in the 2023-2024 cycle to contest election protocols in battleground states, while Trump has claimed his legal issues, Harris replacing Biden at the top of the ticket and any negative coverage of him in the race all amount to election interference.
Nov. 5.
Early voting totals pale in comparison to 2020 figures, when the pandemic drove up participation in mail-in voting, but they’re slightly ahead of early voting in the 2022 midterm elections, which is also typical as voter participation is historically higher in presidential election years.
In the seven swing states most likely to decide the results of the election, more than 6.3 million people have voted early. In North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania, more than 3.1 million Democrats have voted, while more than 2.6 million Republicans and more than 500,000 unaffiliated voters have already cast their ballots, according to TargetSmart. Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin do not report party breakdowns in early voting totals.
Every state except Oklahoma.
No. Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire only offer early voting by mail with an eligible reason.
Yes, but nine states—Connecticut, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia—require an eligible reason to vote by mail.
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