Election betting markets believe Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a dead heat in the race to win the presidential election in November, as the former president’s odds have notched upwards in the past few days despite recent polls being in favor of the Democratic candidate.
Former president Donald Trump is joined on stage by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at the Desert Diamond ... [+]
According to the Election Betting Odds tracker, which consolidates betting numbers from four separate markets, bookmakers now believe both Harris and Trump have a 49.1% chance of winning the election.
Trump, who was about 2 points behind Harris after the DNC, has gained some ground among bookmakers the past week, as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr endorsed the former president and suspended his campaign.
Bettors on the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket are giving Trump slightly better odds of 50% to Harris’ 49%, while predicting both candidates have roughly an equal chance of winning the key swing state of Pennsylvania remains
With a 49.5% chance, Trump’s winning odds are also slightly higher than Harris’ 48% on the British betting site Smarkets.
Bookmakers on the betting platform PredictIt, however, continue to give significantly better odds of 55 cents per share (roughly equating to a 55% chance) compared to Trump’s 48 cents per share—with the gap between the two narrowing slightly in the past few days.
Get Forbes Breaking News Text Alerts: We’re launching text message alerts so you'll always know the biggest stories shaping the day’s headlines. Text “Alerts” to (201) 335-0739 or sign up here.
3.5 points. That is the size of Harris’ lead over Trump in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.
Unlike other betting platforms, PredictIt only allows participation by U.S. residents over the age of 18. Earlier this year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed banning all election-related betting in the U.S. derivatives market. Ahead of the proposal, PredictIt had sued the federal agency for trying to shut down the platform from taking bets on the presidential race—after previously allowing it.
Harris Surges Past Trump Again In Election Betting Markets As DNC Wraps Up (Forbes)