The National Hurricane Center has warned that another named tropical storm could form in the Caribbean in the next week and there’s a possibility it will head toward the already-battered Gulf coast of Florida or , though uncertainty is high for the late-season storm.
Palm trees line the beach before Hurricane Milton's arrival on Oct. 9, 2024, in Fort Myers Beach, ... [+]
The unnamed disturbance in the central Caribbean Sea has a 90% chance of turning into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, the NHC warned Wednesday morning, with conditions like low wind shear and record-warm Caribbean water for mid-November “conductive” for storm development.
Further development into a tropical storm or hurricane named Sara "is likely" over the next seven days as the system moves slowly northwestward, the agency said, which could put it on a path for the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30 and while a storm forming this late in the year would be rare, it’s not unheard of, and the potential formation of Sara comes shortly after Hurricane Rafael struck Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane on Nov. 3.
The National Hurricane Center is sending its first Hurricane Hunter flight mission to investigate the storm, currently south of Jamaica, later Wednesday.
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It’s not clear what areas—if any—could get hit by the storm. AccuWeather says some tracks suggest the storm could turn into a hurricane and head in the direction of Florida next week, though it could also lose strength after passing from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. Matt Devitt, chief meteorologist at WINK News southwest Florida, said the early projection models for Sara show a "less than ideal" outlook for Florida mid next week. He shared a graphic with several potential paths for the storm, all of which estimate it will enter the Gulf of Mexico, curve around Cuba and head for Florida's gulf coast. Other potential paths show the storm could move further out into the Atlantic, away from the U.S., or head directly west into Central America, USA Today reported.
- That's how many hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. in November since 1850, the most recent of which was Hurricane Nicole in 2022. Nicole hit as a Category 1 Hurricane near Vero Beach, Florida.
If a hurricane gets to Florida next week, it would be the fourth to hit the state this hurricane season and the third in the last eight weeks. Hurricane Helene caused more than 230 deaths as it moved across the Southeast United States in late September and, less than two weeks later, Hurricane Milton killed at least two dozen people in Florida. Hurricane Debby made landfall in Florida in August. With Milton, Florida's three storms in one year tied 1871, 1886, 1964, 2004 and 2005 for the state's record for the most landfalling hurricanes on record in a single season. Scientists have long warned that climate change stands to make hurricanes more destructive, and the international scientific group World Weather Attribution estimates Milton would have been a Category 2 hurricane, rather than a Category 3, if not for the changing climate. Researchers also found that storms with Milton’s wind speeds have become 40% more frequent because the climate has warmed by 1.3 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times.