Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to strengthen on Tuesday while becoming a hurricane over the western Caribbean as the storm heads northwest toward the Gulf Coast later this week, impacting the Florida Keys and other states, though forecasters say it could veer toward Mexico.
A hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and parts of Cuba, as tropical storm ... [+]
A hurricane warning is in effect Tuesday for the Cayman Islands and parts of Cuba, and a tropical storm warning has been issued for Jamaica, other areas in Cuba and the Florida Keys, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A “life-threatening storm surge” and “destructive waves” caused by Rafael as a Category 1 hurricane are expected in western Cuba on Wednesday, with tropical storms impacting the lower and middle Florida Keys by Thursday morning.
Rafael is traveling Northwest at about 13 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of up to 60 miles per hour as of 10 a.m. EST, as the storm will likely continue moving toward the central and northern Gulf of Mexico this week, the agency said.
Conditions are “favorable” for Rafael to rapidly strengthen over the next day before weakening in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico by Friday, the agency said.
Despite a forecast suggesting Rafael will impact the Gulf Coast—affecting states like Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle—the National Hurricane Center said it’s “too soon to determine” if this region will be affected by tropical storm conditions as Rafael appears to be traveling in a “westerly motion” toward Mexico.
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The National Hurricane Center updates forecasts for tropical storms and hurricanes every six hours, with an updated forecast expected by 4 p.m. EST.
- That’s the number of named storms that have been seen in the Atlantic this hurricane season, including Tropical Storm Rafael, according to the National Hurricane Center. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted up to 13 hurricanes and between 17 and 25 named storms, the most ever forecast by the agency.
Forecasters issued a warning earlier this year saying the Atlantic hurricane season could hit a “record-setting pace.” Hurricane Helene hit the U.S. last month, resulting in hundreds of people dying across North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee Florida and Georgia. The NOAA said last month there’s a 60% chance La Niña develops in the U.S. in November and persists through March, marking a new climate pattern that often results in more severe hurricane seasons in the Atlantic Ocean. During a La Niña, the area of low vertical wind shear in the Atlantic expands, increasing the number of hurricanes that develop while allowing stronger storms to form. AccuWeather forecasters said an increase in storm activity is also likely caused by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic, particularly in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the tropics, where hurricanes regularly form. Higher temperatures could result in a phenomenon known as rapid intensification, when storms receive a sudden burst in wind speed.