Tropical Storm Francine strengthened in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday afternoon and is expected to hit Louisiana as a hurricane later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center, which issued a hurricane warning for a large swath of the state’s coastline.
Tropical Storm Francine formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday morning and is expected to hit ... [+]
As of the National Hurricane Center’s latest update Monday at 4 p.m. CDT, Francine was 150 miles southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande, and had maximum wind speeds of about 65 mph, up from 50 mph in the late morning.
Forecasters expect the storm to slowly move north-northwest before hooking to the northeast and speeding up Tuesday—at which point they predict “more significant intensification”—then making landfall in Louisiana late Wednesday as a Category 2 hurricane.
In the 4 p.m. update, the National Hurricane Center warned Francine could become a hurricane as soon as Monday night or Tuesday morning.
Though it is not explicitly predicted, forecasters warned Monday that computer models suggest “pretty elevated” chances of rapid intensification that could start Tuesday, and continue for up to 24 hours, before the storm encounters increased wind shear as it makes its final approach toward the coast.
A hurricane warning is in effect from Sabine Pass, Louisiana, eastward to Morgan City, Louisiana, while a hurricane watch extends eastward to Grand Isle, Louisiana.
A storm surge warning was issued from High Island, Texas, to the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana and included Vermilion Bay, and storm surge watches remain in place east of the river to the Mississippi-Alabama border, and include Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.
“Life-threatening inundation” is possible in the storm surge warning area, with tides reaching up to 10 feet above normal from Cameron to Port Fourchon, Louisiana, including Vermilion Bay.
The National Weather Service warned hurricane conditions are possible by Wednesday afternoon, and that Francine could bring four to eight inches of rainfall from the coast of northeast Mexico to parts of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday.
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The National Hurricane Center will issue its next intermediate advisory, which has updated wind speeds, at 7 p.m. CDT and its next complete advisory, which will include an updated forecast track, at 10 p.m. CDT.
Yes. Cameron Parish Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness issued a mandatory evacuation order for the southern part of the parish at 2 p.m. local time Monday, and the Mayor of Grand Isle issued a voluntary evacuation and canceled school for Tuesday, WWL-TV reported. Exxon Mobil also said it evacuated its staff from its Hoover offshore production site—more than 100 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas—and Shell and Chevron said they were evacuating non-essential staff, Reuters reported.
The city of New Orleans is not included in just east of the cone of uncertainty, though the metro area is under a tropical storm watch and Lake Pontchartrain, just north of the city, is expected to have 2-4 feet of storm surge. Heavy rainfall is possible Tuesday night, and tropical storm conditions could affect the city Wednesday and Wednesday night, according to the National Weather Service.
Tropical Storm Francine will be upgraded to a hurricane when its maximum sustained surface winds reach 74 miles per hour. A tropical storm is a cyclone with maximum wind speeds ranging from 39 to 73 miles per hour.
- That’s how many named storms the Atlantic has seen this hurricane season, including Tropical Storm Francine. The other named storms have been: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby and Ernesto.
Tuesday marks the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The season runs from June 1 through November 30 and usually hits its peak on Sept. 10, according to the National Weather Service. There is a secondary peak around mid-October that mainly impacts the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, and after that the season typically ends fairly quickly.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expected this Atlantic hurricane season to be the among the busiest ever, with between 17 and 25 named storms (which have wind speeds of 39 miles per hour or higher), and eight to 13 hurricanes, though the last few weeks have been historically quiet. Francine’s formation Monday morning made it the first named storm since Ernesto on Aug. 12. According to Colorado State-based meteorologist Philip Klotzbach, this season was the first since 1968 with no named storms forming between Aug. 13 and Sept. 8. The average prediction over the last three decades is 14 named storms. The busy forecast was in part due to “an abundant oceanic heat content” in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, which NOAA said “creates more energy to fuel storm development.”
The tallest building in Lake Charles, Louisiana—the 22-story Capital One Tower—was imploded Saturday due to damage it sustained in 2020’s Hurricane Laura. The area is included in the cone of uncertainty for Tropical Storm Francine.