Carolina Panthers coach Frank Reich didn’t waste any time naming his starting quarterback.

After the Panthers’ first day of training camp in late July, Reich made it clear that Bryce Young was the team’s “QB1,” choosing the rookie over veteran Andy Dalton, whom Carolina signed in the offseason. The decision ensured there was no speculation or competition that would hang over the franchise’s camp.

Still, Carolina fans and the NFL as a whole will be watching Young and scrutinizing the performance of the No. 1 pick in April’s draft.

On Sunday afternoon, Young will have his professional regular season debut on the road against the Atlanta Falcons. He will make his first home appearance the following Monday night (Sept. 18) against the New Orleans Saints, a game that will be broadcast on ESPN.

Young is no stranger to playing in nationally televised games. After all, he was a star at Alabama, becoming the first Crimson Tide quarterback to win the Heisman Trophy and starting for two years for arguably college football’s most popular/divisive program. But he will be facing a level of competition that he’s not accustomed to and playing for a team that will not be favored to win many games, which he never experienced in college.

The Panthers are coming off a season in which they went 7-10, fired their coach (Matt Rhule) midseason, traded their best player (running back Christian McCaffrey) and missed the playoffs for the fifth consecutive year. And during the offseason, Carolina’s leading rusher (D’Onta Freeman) signed with the Chicago Bears and its leading receiver (D.J Moore) was part of the trade with the Bears that netted the Panthers the No. 1 pick that they used to draft Young.

History tells us it’s almost always difficult for No. 1 overall pick quarterbacks in their rookie seasons, no matter how well they end up doing in the NFL.

Even Peyton Manning struggled in his first season with the Indianapolis Colts in 1998, completing a career-low 56.7% of his passes and throwing a career- and league-high 28 interceptions, five more than anyone else that year. Manning, of course, would go on to become one of the best players in NFL history, winning two Super Bowls and a record five Most Valuable Player awards.

Since 1967, the first year of the modern NFL draft, 27 quarterbacks have been selected with the first overall pick. Manning, Terry Bradshaw (1970), John Elway (1983) and Troy Aikman (1989) are the best of the bunch, with all getting elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame and winning multiple Super Bowls.

And yet, none of those four were effective as rookies: Bradshaw threw an NFL-high 24 interceptions and completed a career-low 38.1% of his passes; Elway threw 14 interceptions and just seven touchdowns and completed a career-low 47.5% of his passes; and Aikman threw nine touchdowns and 18 interceptions, completed a career-low 52.9% of his passes and lost all 11 games he started.

Based on Pro Football Reference’s approximate value (AV) metric, Cam Newton was the best rookie quarterback No. 1 pick. In 2011, Newton threw for 4,051 yards, 21 touchdowns and 17 interceptions and had an AV of 19, tied for seventh-best in the league.

The PFF website notes approximate value attempts to “put a single number on the seasonal value of a player at any position from any year (since 1960),” although it mentions that “AV is not meant to be a be-all end-all metric. Football stat lines just do not come close to capturing all the contributions of a player the way they do in baseball and basketball.”

The other rookie No. 1 pick quarterbacks to have an AV of 10 or better were Jim Plunkett (10 in 1971), Manning (11 in 1998), Andrew Luck (13 in 2012), Jameis Winston (13 in 2015), Baker Mayfield (10 in 2018) and Kyler Murray (14 in 2019). Those with AVs of 2 or worse were Bradshaw (1 in 1970), Aikman (2 in 1989), Eli Manning (negative 1 in 2004), Alex Smith (negative 5 in 2005) and JaMarcus Russell (1 in 2007).

Young, for his part, hopes not to fall into the latter category this season. Still, he would surely want a career similar to Bradshaw, Aikman or Eli Manning, who won two Super Bowls and could be elected to the Hall of Fame when he’s eligible in 2025.