Ohio Sen. JD Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz have each been thrust into the spotlight as the running mate picks of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, and a new poll released Wednesday shows more Americans hold Walz in a higher regard than Vance—though many voters are still unfamiliar with both candidates.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is seemingly more favorable than Ohio Sen. JD Vance in early polls, but he ... [+]
A poll from the Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released Wednesday found Walz is viewed more favorably than Vance, with 27% of U.S. adults saying Vance is favorable while 44% find him unfavorable, compared to 36% who think Walz is favorable and 25% who find him unfavorable—and more Democrats are supportive of Walz (62%) than Republicans of Vance (57%).
But the AP poll also found a sizable minority remain unfamiliar with both vice presidential candidates, with 28% of all respondents saying they don’t know enough about Vance and 37% saying the same about Walz (the poll was taken Aug. 8-12, surveyed 1,164 adults and had a margin of error of ±3.8).
A YouGov poll released Aug. 14 found 36% of U.S. adults had a favorable view of Vance compared to 47% who found him unfavorable, making his net favorability -11 points.
In the same YouGov poll, 40% of U.S. said Walz was favorable while just 39% said he was unfavorable, giving him a net favorability rating of +1 (the poll, taken Aug. 11-13, surveyed 1,567 adults and had a margin of error of ± 3.3%).
Meanwhile, a Monmouth University poll of registered voters released Aug. 14 found Vance and Walz had fairly similar favorability numbers (36% and 37% respectively), but voters were more likely to have a negative opinion of Vance, 41%, than Walz, 30% (Monmouth polled 801 people from Aug. 8-12, margin of error ±4).
However, more voters were undecided on Walz than Vance, meaning Walz’s approval ratings could shift: In the YouGov poll, 17% of respondents said “don’t know” when asked about Vance’s favorability, compared to 22% who said the same for Walz.
Nearly a quarter of respondents in the Monmouth poll (24%) said they had not heard of Walz, while just 14% of respondents hadn’t heard of Vance, and 9% of respondents said they had no opinion of either vice presidential option.
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Walz will address the Democratic National Convention in Chicago late Wednesday, ahead of Harris’ acceptance speech Thursday.
How the numbers shift as Walz becomes more of a household name. Recent polling reflects that Walz is still significantly lesser known than Vance: By the time Walz was announced as Harris’ running mate, Vance had been campaigning as Trump’s pick for more than two weeks, which could mean his favorability and unfavorability numbers will be higher as voters have had more time to form an opinion on him. Before getting the nod from Trump, Vance was a fairly well-known senator, whereas Walz was somewhat lower-profile.
In the past, experts have been skeptical of whether vice presidential picks have much influence on an election’s outcome, but with November's race expected to be highly contested, even small boosts from vice presidential picks could be game changers. In the latest FiveThirtyEight averages, Harris had virtually erased the growing lead Trump had on President Joe Biden and is now ahead by nearly three points. Both campaigns have cast their vice presidential picks as politicians who can speak to voters in key midwestern swing states, though Vance is also seen as a Trump loyalist and an appeal to his MAGA base, and some parts of the Democratic base pushed for Walz due to his support for some progressive priorities. Joel Goldstein, professor emeritus at Saint Louis University and an expert on vice presidencies, recently told Minnesota Public Radio that while most people are going to vote on their perception of the presidential candidates, the vice presidential picks provide insight into how they make decisions, which can help voters decide who to support. Running mates can also make differences in their home states, Goldstein said—though in this case, both Minnesota and Ohio are unlikely to be key swing states.
We estimate Vance is worth about $10 million, while Walz has an estimated net worth of just north of $1 million. Vance has made his money on his best-selling memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy,” along with real estate investments that we estimate total about $4 million. Walz, on the other hand, owns no property, stocks or bonds and his wealth is based on his and his wife’s pensions for their work in teaching and government.