Democrats risk losing their narrow control of the Senate in November as three of the 23 seats they’re defending are considered toss-ups, while another will almost certainly flip to Republican control.
Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., during a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing ... [+]
Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., is challenging Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., for retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s seat, rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report, though polls show Slotkin with an edge, including CNN/SSRS and Emerson College surveys that each found her leading by six points.
Montana: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is widely considered one of the most vulnerable in the upper chamber, and a new independent poll conducted by AARP and released Thursday showing Republican Tim Sheehy beating him by eight points, 41% to 49%, has exacerbated concerns among Democrats the race (also rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report) could cost them a seat in November.
Ohio: In the last of only three toss-up races, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is vying to retain his seat against Republican businessman Bernie Moreno, though RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows Brown with a 3.6-point advantage.
West Virginia: This seat will almost certainly flip to Republican control when Sen. Joe Manchin, one of the three independents in the Senate who caucus with Democrats, retires; the state’s popular Republican governor, Jim Justice, is heavily favored to win.
Arizona: Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., is leading Republican Trump ally Kari Lake by single-digit margins in most polls in the contest for the seat held by independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who is not running for re-election.
Nevada: While the race is rated “lean Democrat” by Cook Political Report, Democrat Jacky Rosen is leading Republican Afghanistan war veteran Sam Brown by at least 10 points in half of the polls included in FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker.
Pennsylvania: Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is in a tight race with former Bridgewater Associates CEO David McCormick to maintain control of his seat, with a recent CNN/SSRS poll showing a tie between the two.
Wisconsin: Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads her Republican challenger, businessman Eric Hovde, by six points, a recent CNN/SSRS poll found.
Democrats have a razor-thin 51-49 majority over Republicans. That means if former President Donald Trump wins the election, Republicans need to flip just one seat to gain control of the upper chamber, since the vice president serves as the tie-breaking vote. If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, Democrats can afford to lose a single Senate seat.
West Virginia, Montana, Ohio and Michigan, in that order, according to polls. West Virginia is almost certain to flip to Republican control, while some polls show the GOP candidate leading in Montana. Surveys show single-digit races in both Ohio and Michigan.
It’s unlikely. The most competitive GOP races are in Florida and Texas, both rated “likely Republican” by Cook Political Report. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., leads his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, by single digits in most polls. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is also leading Democrat Colin Allred by 10 points or less in most surveys.
- That’s the total number of Senate seats up for re-election this year, including 11 held by Republicans and 23 held by Democrats. None of the GOP-held seats are likely to flip, as all are in likely or solidly Republican states.
Democrats maintained control of the Senate by a narrow two-seat margin in the 2022 midterm after Trump-backed Republicans lost a string of high-profile races in the swing states of Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Democratic enthusiasm surrounding Vice President Kamala Harris’ entrance into the race could help Democrats eke out wins in tightly contested down-ballot races by drawing Harris supporters to the polls who would have otherwise sat out the race with President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. The share of Americans who favor Democrats to win Congress has grown since Harris launched her campaign and has pulled out ahead of former President Donald Trump in polls. Republicans were favored to win Congress by 0.6 points on July 21, the day Biden dropped out of the race, and Democrats are now favored to win by 2.6 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. Republicans are ahead in fundraising—as of the end of July, the National Republican Senatorial Committee had raised around $27 million more than the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Republicans are slightly favored to win the House, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which rates 211 seats as safe, likely or leaning Republican and 205 seats as safe, likely or leaning Democratic. Republicans are defending nine toss-up seats, while Democrats are defending 10.
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