You would normally think that the ability to throw at 100mph, paired with a sharp 96 mile-per-hour slider, would lead to sky-high strikeout numbers. Yet Cincinnati Reds starter Graham Ashcraft does it differently.

On the season, Ashcraft's numbers do not leap off the page. In 105.0 innings across 20 starts, he has pitched to a 6-7 record, a 5.31 ERA, and a 1.50 WHIP. Ashcraft, however, has essentially had three seasons in one so far - two very good ones, bookending a brief period of regular shellacking. Examining all three in context tells the story of a player who, despite having a cannon of an arm, is looking for infield duds.

In a six-eight-six sandwich, Ashcraft's first six starts were all quality ones. Across 36.0 innings pitched, he relinquished only 26 hits, 8 runs and one homer, for a 2.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a mere .202 batting average against. However, a rough outing (1.2 IP, eight earned runs) on 7th May began an eight-game stretch of bad outings, in which, across 33.o innings pitched, he gave up 48 runs (47 earned), 14 homers and 25 walks compared to 11 strikeouts. Ashcraft lost his command, and, seemingly, his stuff - a three-pitch pitcher was down to only two pitches.

This season, Ashcraft has made some slight adjustment to his pitch mix. Gone is the ineffectual change-up, while his usage of the slider has increased from 27% to 37%. The slider has picked up from the sinking fastball, which Ashcraft has used less frequently and admitted to losing his confidence in.

Since then, though, he appears to have at least found his command. Over his last six starts, Ashcraft has thrown another 36.0 innings and given up only seven runs. The walk rate has come back down, the home run rate has come way down, and he is back to doing what he does best - getting weak infield grounders. Which is not normally what you would expect from a guy who can throw 100 mile-per-hour hard cheese.

Despite the velocity and relatively easy delivery thereof, Ashcraft's stuff is not beating the bat as much as his high-velo peers, and never has done. Baseball Savant lists his slider's whiff rate at 32.8%, tied for 210th in the majors, yet the cut fastball is exactly half that at 16.4%, down at a lowly 712th out of 880. Similarly, the slider has a hard hit rate of 28.6%, good for 155th, while the cutter is at 43,7%, a mere 511th. And his third pitch, the sinker, has not been thrown enough to measure at all.

Essentially a two-pitch pitcher, then, it is imperative that Ashcraft works in the lower half of the zone, especially with the slider. But during his eight-game middle season, that is not what was happening. Ashcraft's 2023 ground ball rate of 47.2% is the second-lowest of any season of his career, much of which came during the slump, when his offerings was regularly being carted over the fence.

When he is not making mistakes in the zone, though, the slider is both beating the barrel of the bat and getting chopped into the dirt. Backed by a quality Reds infield, Ashcraft at the top of his craft is a ground ball pitcher with triple-digit velocity in a way not often seen in the era of strikeouts and launch angles. He was at the top of said craft during his first mini-season. And despite the blip, he seems to be getting back towards it again now too.

Much to the surprise of near-enough every pundit who expected the rebuild to take at least one more year - self included - the Reds have had a solid bullpen. Ranking in the middle of the pack in bullpen ERA, and anchored by elite closer Alexis Diaz (who surely they have gone from potentially trading away to trying to buy top quality set-up guys to pair with him for the pennant race), they have put themselves in a pennant race after losing 100 games last season. If they are to win that pennant, it is imperative that they have good starting pitching, especially given Hunter Greene's injury. But it seems as though after his own eight-game wobble, Ashcraft and his delicate two-pitch mix can be a part of that.